Development and validation of a novel model to predict post-stroke cognitive impairment within 6 months after acute ischemic stroke

Background: Cognitive decline following acute ischemic stroke (AIS), termed post-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI), is a prevalent phenomenon that significantly elevates disability and mortality rates among affected patients. The objective of this investigation was to develop a robust clinical prediction model capable of forecasting PSCI within six months post-AIS and subsequently validate its effectiveness.

Methods: A cohort of 573 AIS patients was stratified into two groups: those with PSCI (260 cases) and those who remained cognitively normal (CN) (313 cases). These patients were further subdivided into three distinct cohorts: a development cohort comprising 193 AIS patients, an internal validation cohort with 193 AIS patients, and an external validation cohort encompassing 187 AIS patients. A thorough multifactor logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify independent predictors of PSCI, which were subsequently incorporated into the prediction model for comprehensive analysis and validation. The discriminatory power, calibration accuracy, and clinical net benefits of the prediction model were rigorously evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), calibration plots, and decision curve analyses, respectively.

Results: Utilizing a meticulously selected panel of variables, including smoking status, alcohol consumption, female gender, low educational attainment, NIHSS score at admission, stroke progression, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, stroke localization, HCY levels, and Lp-PLA2 levels, a clinical prediction model was formulated to predict the occurrence of PSCI within six months of AIS. The model demonstrated AUC-ROC values of 0.898 (95%CI, 0.853-0.942), 0.847 (95%CI, 0.794-0.901), and 0.849 (95%CI, 0.7946-0.9031) in the development, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. Further validation through calibration curve analyses, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests, and additional metrics confirmed the model's impressive predictive performance.

Conclusion: The proposed model exhibits strong discriminative ability for predicting PSCI and holds considerable promise for guiding clinical decision-making. However, ongoing optimization with multicenter data is necessary to bolster its robustness and broaden its applicability.