Global, regional, and national burden of cutaneous malignant melanoma from 1990 to 2021 and prediction to 2045

Chengling Liu; Xingchen Liu; Li Hu; Xin Li; Haiming Xin; Sailin Zhu

doi:10.3389/fonc.2024.1512942

Global, regional, and national burden of cutaneous malignant melanoma from 1990 to 2021 and prediction to 2045

Front Oncol. 2024 Dec 24:14:1512942. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1512942. eCollection 2024.

Authors

Chengling Liu¹, Xingchen Liu², Li Hu³, Xin Li¹, Haiming Xin¹, Sailin Zhu¹

Affiliations

¹ Center of Burns and Plastic Surgery and Dermatology, The 924th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), Guilin, China.
² Department of Pathology, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China.
³ Department of the Hematology and Oncology, The 924th Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), Guilin, China.

Abstract

Background: Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma (CMM) is a significant global health challenge. Understanding regional differences in CMM prevalence and trends is crucial for developing targeted strategies. To address this, we analyzed epidemiological patterns and investigated risk factors for CMM-related mortality.

Methods: This study analyzed CMM using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases survey, covering 204 countries and territories. We evaluated the number and age-standardized rates of prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), and annual percentage changes (EAPCs). Trends were stratified by region, country, age, sex, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model projected future prevalence, mortality, and DALYs, while decomposition analysis identified key drivers of CMM burden. Frontier analysis further associated CMM outcomes with socio-demographic development.

Results: In 2021, the global prevalence of CMM reached 833,215 cases, a 161.3% increase since 1990. During this period, the ASPR rose from 19.13 to 25.37 per 100,000, while the ASMR declined from 0.84 to 0.73 per 100,000. DALYs increased by 60.5%, from 1,045,777 to 1,678,836. The high SDI region had the highest ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR. Decomposition analysis identified population growth, demographic aging, and epidemiological changes as equal drivers of CMM DALYs globally. Countries like New Zealand and Australia demonstrated the most significant effective differences, indicating potential for improvement in CMM management. By 2045, the global ASPR is projected to rise to 36.61, with ASMR and ASDR expected to decrease to 0.79 and 10.21 per 100,000.

Conclusion: CMM poses an increasing global health concern, with ASPR steadily rising. While this analysis shows a decline in global ASMR and ASDR overall, these rates are actually increasing in low SDI regions, and projections indicate that this trend will likely continue until 2045.

Keywords: Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model; annual percentage changes; cutaneous malignant melanoma; frontier analysis; global burden of disease (GBD).

Grants and funding

The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This study was supported grant the Construction Project of key clinical specialty in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the Science and technology project of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (24-02) Health Commission(Z-C20231103) and Medical Excellence Specialized Project of Joint Logistics Support Force (LBYZZK2024004).