Does famine during the fetal period increase the degree of disability of the elderly?-An empirical study based on data from China

Background: People who have experienced the Chinese Great Famine (1959-1961) in their fetal period are getting old. It is particularly important for China's response to the ageing of this cohort to study the impact of the Holodomor on disability.

Method: This paper presents an empirical analysis that utilizes the survey data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), employing a cohort Difference-in-Differences (DID) modeling approach. It integrates the excess mortality rate (EDR) from China's Great Famine with the 2018 CHARLS survey data, selecting suitable control and experimental groups for a comprehensive study. The empirical analysis is conducted using the cohort DID model, comprising a total of 11,567 samples.

Results: This study found that the experience of famine would increase the level of disability in the population, with each 0.1% increase in excess mortality increasing the level of IADL by approximately 0.019. This experience during the fetal period will increase the incidence of handicaps, mainly in the brain and hearing. This thesis finds strong heterogeneity across gender and between urban and rural areas.

Conclusions: China's long-term care capacity should be improved, with attention paid to the rural disabled population and to the health of pregnant women and fetuses.