Long-term changes in frailty and incident atrial fibrillation, heart failure, coronary heart disease, and stroke: A prospective follow-up study

Background: People with frailty have increased prevalence and incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF).

Objective: The study aimed to further investigate the association of long-term changes in frailty with risk of new-onset AF. Its associations with heart failure (HF), coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke were also evaluated as a secondary aim.

Methods: Over 50,000 participants from UK Biobank cohort were included, with frailty index (FI) data and free of AF, HF, CHD or stroke in baseline and follow-up assessments. Frailty status of the participants was categorized into non-frail, pre-frail and frail based on their FI scores. FI in baseline and follow-ups are used to calculate the trajectories of frailty (ΔFI).

Results: During a median of 5.1 years of follow-up from the final assessment, 1729 cases of AF were recorded. Frailty trajectory analysis showed that even a 0.01 point/year increase in ΔFI was associated with 14% (95% CI 1.08-1.20) higher risk of AF, independent of baseline FI after adjusting for potential confounders. Compared with maintained non-frail participants, those with sustained frail status had the highest risk of incident AF (HR 1.95, 1.61-2.36). The risk declined by 30% (95% CI 0.53-0.94) when frail participants regressed to non-frail or pre-frail status, compared with sustained frail participants. These associations were similar in HF and CHD, however, not significant in stroke.

Conclusion: In middle-aged and elderly individuals, frailty remission or non-frailty maintenance was associated with lower risk of AF, HF and CHD compared to persistent frailty, regardless of prior frailty status and established risk factors.