Frailty index predicts adverse short- and long-term outcomes in older adults with rib fractures

Background: Older adults with rib fractures pose an increasing clinical and financial burden on healthcare. Identifying and addressing the increased risk of adverse outcomes has been a key objective in geriatric co-management of surgical patients. The Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment-based Frailty Index (FI-CGA) is a useful predictor of complications and mortality in older adults, but its value in rib fracture management remains unclear. This study investigates the association between FI-CGA and short- and long-term outcomes of older adults with rib fractures.

Methods: Rib fracture patients ≥65 years, with a FI-CGA score available, were retrospectively identified from a single level-I trauma center between 2018 and 2022. FI-CGA scores were categorized as pre-frail (<0.20), mild frailty (0.20-0.29), moderate frailty (0.30-0.39), and severe frailty (≥0.40). Outcome measures included mortality up to two years, length of stay (LOS), complications, and 30-day readmission.

Results: 288 patients were included for analysis (57 pre-frail; 66 mildly frail; 61 moderately frail; 104 severely frail). Compared to the pre-frail group, only severely frail patients were at higher risk of 90-day (OR 5.71 [CI 1.29 - 52.67]) and 1-year mortality (OR 6.66 [CI 2.18 - 27.37]), while 2-year mortality was higher in mild (OR 3.77 [CI 1.30 - 12.57]), moderate (OR 4.28 [CI 1.46 - 14.51]) and severe (OR 6.42 [CI 2.43 - 20.11]) frailty groups. Hospital (p=0.183) and ICU LOS (p=0.131) was similar across groups. Severely frail patients were at risk of pneumonia (OR 3.50 [CI 0.95 - 19.48]) and delirium (OR 4.16 [CI 1.33 - 17.40]), while other complications were similar between groups (p=0.679). Adjusted proportional hazard ratios for mortality were significantly higher for moderate frailty (HR 1.99 [CI 1.02 - 3.89]) and severe frailty (HR 2.66 [CI 1.10 - 3.73]). FI-CGA was also a significant predictor if used per 0.01 point (HR 1.03 [CI 1.01 - 1.04)]) and per 0.1 point (HR 1.29 [CI 1.12 - 1.47]).

Conclusion: FI-CGA can identify vulnerable rib fracture patients at risk of in-hospital complications, and short- and long-term mortality. Continuous FI-CGA scores provide a granular and individualized risk assessment. In severely frail patients with rib fractures, FI-CGA may assist in aligning treatment with individual patients' needs and goals of care.