Nonlinear exposure-response associations of daytime, nighttime, and day-night compound heatwaves with mortality amid climate change

Nat Commun. 2025 Jan 14;16(1):635. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-56067-7.

Abstract

Heatwaves are commonly simplified as binary variables in epidemiological studies, limiting the understanding of heatwave-mortality associations. Here we conduct a multi-country study across 28 East Asian cities that employed the Cumulative Excess Heatwave Index (CEHWI), which represents excess heat accumulation during heatwaves, to explore the potentially nonlinear associations of daytime-only, nighttime-only, and day-night compound heatwaves with mortality from 1981 to 2010. Populations exhibited high adaptability to daytime-only and nighttime-only heatwaves, with non-accidental mortality risks increasing only at higher CEHWI levels (75th-90th percentiles). In contrast, compound heatwaves posed a super-linear increase in mortality risks after the 25th percentile of CEHWI. Associations of heatwaves with cardiovascular mortality mirrored those with non-accidental mortality but were more pronounced at higher CEHWI levels, while significant associations with respiratory mortality emerged at low-to-moderate CEHWI levels. These results highlight the necessity of considering the nonlinear health responses to heatwaves of different types in disease burden assessments and heatwave-health warning systems amid climate change.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / mortality
  • Child
  • Cities / epidemiology
  • Climate Change*
  • Female
  • Hot Temperature / adverse effects
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality
  • Nonlinear Dynamics