Using machine learning models to identify severe subjective cognitive decline and related factors in nurses during the menopause transition: a pilot study

Objective: This study aims to develop and validate a machine learning model for identifying individuals within the nursing population experiencing severe subjective cognitive decline (SCD) during the menopause transition, along with their associated factors.

Methods: A secondary analysis was performed using cross-sectional data from 1,264 nurses undergoing the menopause transition. The data set was randomly split into training (75%) and validation sets (25%), with the Bortua algorithm employed for feature selection. Seven machine learning models were constructed and optimized. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score. Shapley Additive Explanations analysis was used to elucidate the weights and characteristics of various factors associated with severe SCD.

Results: The average SCD score among nurses in the menopause transition was (5.38 ± 2.43). The Bortua algorithm identified 13 significant feature factors. Among the seven models, the support vector machine exhibited the best overall performance, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.846, accuracy of 0.789, sensitivity of 0.753, specificity of 0.802, and an F1 score of 0.658. The two variables most strongly associated with SCD were menopausal symptoms and the stage of menopause.

Conclusions: The machine learning models effectively identify individuals with severe SCD and the related factors associated with severe SCD in nurses during the menopause transition. These findings offer valuable insights for the management of cognitive health in women undergoing the menopause transition.