Development of Predictive Model of Surgical Case Durations Using Machine Learning Approach

Optimizing operating room (OR) utilization is critical for enhancing hospital management and operational efficiency. Accurate surgical case duration predictions are essential for achieving this optimization. Our study aimed to refine the accuracy of these predictions beyond traditional estimation methods by developing Random Forest models tailored to specific surgical departments. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset, we applied several machine learning algorithms, including RandomForest, XGBoost, Linear Regression, LightGBM, and CatBoost, and assessed their performance using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and R-Squared (R²) metrics. Our findings highlighted that Random Forest models excelled in department-specific applications, achieving an MAE of 16.32, an RMSE of 31.19, and an R² of 0.92, significantly outperforming general models and conventional estimates. This improvement emphasizes the advantage of customizing models to fit the distinct characteristics and data patterns of each department. Additionally, our SHAP-based feature importance analysis identified morning operation timing, ICU ward assignments, operation codes, and surgeon IDs as key factors influencing surgical duration. This suggests that a detailed and nuanced approach to model development can substantially increase prediction accuracy. By providing a more accurate, reliable tool for predicting surgical case durations, our department-specific Random Forest models promise to enhance surgical scheduling, leading to more effective OR management. This approach underscores the importance of leveraging tailored, data-driven models to improve healthcare outcomes and operational efficiency.