Nomogram to predict cumulative live birth rate following in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection cycles in patients with endometriosis

Background: The success of in vitro fertilization (IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) in endometriosis patients varies widely, and predicting the likelihood of achieving a live birth remains a clinical challenge. This study aims to develop a predictive nomogram for assessing the cumulative live birth (CLB) rate following IVF/ICSI cycles among patients with endometriosis.

Method: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of 1457 patients with endometriosis after IVF/ICSI treatment from January 2017 to August 2022. The patients were divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%) using a random number table. Univariate analysis and multifactorial logistic regression analysis were employed to identify relevant predictive factors affecting CLB rate. A predictive model was then established based on the identified factors.

Results: Univariate analysis and multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that patients with concurrent adenomyosis had a decreased CLB rate (OR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.31-0.82). As the duration of infertility increased, the CLB rate decreased (OR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88-0.99). Higher numbers of fertilized oocytes and high-quality embryos were associated with an increased likelihood of CLB. A nomogram predictive model for CLB rate, based on age, concurrent adenomyosis, duration of infertility, number of fertilization, and number of high-quality embryos, was developed. The area under the curve (AUC) for the training set and validation set was 0.823 (95% CI: 0.798-0.849) and 0.773 (95% CI: 0.729-0.818), respectively. The stratified analysis demonstrated the applicability of the model in the validation cohort.

Conclusion: This predictive nomogram for CLB rate in patients with endometriosis provides valuable and precise information for personalized decision-making, which could be a visual and easily applied tool for IVF/ICSI counselling.