Global, regional, and national burden of major depressive disorders in adults aged 60 years and older from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: Analyses from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Yaping Wang; Chenyuan Qin; Hongguang Chen; Wannian Liang; Min Liu; Jue Liu

doi:10.1016/j.jad.2025.01.086

Global, regional, and national burden of major depressive disorders in adults aged 60 years and older from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: Analyses from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

J Affect Disord. 2025 Jan 19:S0165-0327(25)00104-1. doi: 10.1016/j.jad.2025.01.086. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Yaping Wang¹, Chenyuan Qin¹, Hongguang Chen², Wannian Liang³, Min Liu⁴, Jue Liu⁵

Affiliations

¹ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No.38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China; Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases, Peking University, Ministry of Education, No.38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China.
² Peking University Sixth Hospital, Peking University Institute of Mental Health, NHC Key Laboratory of Mental Health, Peking University, No.35, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China; National Clinical Research Center for Mental Disorders, Peking University Sixth Hospital, No.35, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China.
³ Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua, No.30, Shuangqing Road, Haidian District, 100084 Beijing, China. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁴ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No.38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China; Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases, Peking University, Ministry of Education, No.38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁵ Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, No.38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China; Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases, Peking University, Ministry of Education, No.38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China; Institute for Global Health and Development, Peking University, No.5 Yiheyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100871, China; Global Center for Infectious Disease and Policy Research & Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group, Peking University, No.38, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China. Electronic address: [email protected].

PMID: 39837462
DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2025.01.086

Abstract

Aims: To estimate the burden of major depressive disorder (MDD) among older adults and project its prevalence through 2050.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we calculated age-standardized rates (ASRs) for the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of MDD among people aged ≥60 years from 1990 to 2021. Trends were analyzed using average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Polynomial regressions were utilized to assess the relationship between economic levels and MDD burden. Prevalence of MDD was forecasted to 2050 using a mixed-effects model with Socio-demographic Index as the predictor.

Results: Globally, the ASRs for incidence, prevalence and YLDs of MDD in older adults increased annually by 0.24 % (95 % CI: 0.18-0.31), 0.25 % (0.19-0.30), and 0.24 % (0.18-0.30), respectively. The fastest growth was observed in adults aged 60-69 years. The burden of MDD among females was approximately 1.5 times higher than males, although rates grew faster among males. Lower-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, exhibited the highest burden and growth rates. By 2050, global MDD cases are projected to reach 97.04 million (95 % uncertainty interval [UI]: 71.27-129.85), with an ASR of 4.53 % (3.33-6.07).

Conclusions: The global burden of MDD among older adults has increased since 1990 and its prevalence is projected to continue increasing through 2050. Increments were faster in males, younger-old adults and people living in lower-income countries. Comprehensive and integrated management systems at nation, community and individual levels for MDD among older adults are essential to mitigate this growing burden and promote healthy aging.

Keywords: Aged; Depressive disorder, major; Global burden of disease; Trends.