Nomogram as a novel predictive tool for postoperative pneumonia after endoscopic submucosal dissection for superficial esophageal carcinomas: a multicenter retrospective study

Objectives: Adverse events, such as postoperative pneumonia, can occur in some patients after esophageal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). However, few studies have investigated it. As such, we aimed to develop a nomogram to evaluate the progression of postoperative pneumonia after esophageal ESD.

Methods: Between January 2014 and November 2023, this multicenter retrospective study enrolled patients received esophageal ESD. Data from 492 patients who underwent esophageal ESD were collected for model development. Clinical features and procedure-related characteristics were analyzed. A novel nomogram was constructed based on the results of multivariable logistic regression analysis. Besides, data from 226 and 101 patients were collected for internal and external validation, respectively. Subsequently, the discrimination, calibration, and clinical practice ability of the nomogram were evaluated.

Results: The incidence of postoperative pneumonia after esophageal ESD was 18.6%. Female (OR 1.770, P = 0.027), older age (OR 1.729, P = 0.044), low serum albumin level (OR 2.115, P = 0.003), long operative duration (OR 6.853, P < 0.001), muscular layer damage (OR 1.507, P = 0.136) and comorbid pulmonary disease (OR 1.206, P = 0.594) were found to be statistically or clinically significant factors to predict postoperative pneumonia after esophageal ESD, based on which a nomogram was developed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.76 and 0.89 in the internal and external validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis exhibited favorable results both in the two validation cohorts.

Conclusions: This is the first nomogram built, including sex, age, serum albumin level, operative duration, muscular layer damage, and comorbid pulmonary disease, to predict postoperative pneumonia after esophageal ESD.