Projected effects of high-risk versus population-based prevention strategies in coronary heart disease

Am J Epidemiol. 1985 May;121(5):697-704. doi: 10.1093/aje/121.5.697.

Abstract

The potential benefits of a high-risk and a population strategy to prevent cardiovascular disease deaths by lowering total serum cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure were estimated. The first strategy concentrates on the top 10% of the risk distribution, and the second strategy changes risk factor distributions of the entire population. With the high-risk strategy, lowering total serum cholesterol 20% and diastolic blood pressure to 90 mmHg would result in a 28% reduction in death from cardiovascular disease. Lowering total serum cholesterol to 190 mg/dl and diastolic blood pressure to 80 mmHg with this strategy would result in a 33 per cent reduction in death from cardiovascular disease. These expected changes approximate those expected by lowering total serum cholesterol by 10% and diastolic blood pressure by 5% with the population strategy. Changes in total serum cholesterol (20% lowering) and diastolic blood pressure (10% lowering) that have been achieved in nutrition intervention trials would result in a 50% decline in cardiovascular disease death rates if applied to the whole population. If population mean total serum cholesterol could be lowered to 190 mg/dl and population mean diastolic blood pressure could be lowered to 80 mmHg, a 70% reduction in cardiovascular disease death rates would be expected. This suggests that only a population approach can prevent the majority of deaths from cardiovascular disease in a community.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Blood Pressure
  • Cholesterol / blood
  • Coronary Disease / blood
  • Coronary Disease / prevention & control*
  • Finland
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Risk

Substances

  • Cholesterol