Multivariate models for predicting progression to AIDS and survival in human immunodeficiency virus-infected persons

J Infect Dis. 1995 Apr;171(4):837-44. doi: 10.1093/infdis/171.4.837.

Abstract

Nine hundred thirty persons enrolled in the US Air Force Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Natural History Study were evaluated with a standard battery of 30 potential surrogate markers of disease progression. A risk score for predicting progression to AIDS was then calculated for each patient in the cohort by using the four highest-ranking variables from multivariate analysis: percentage of CD4 CD29 cells, anergy status, age, and hemoglobin. For predicting survival, beta 2-microglobulin replaced age in the Cox model. Stratification according to the risk score demonstrated that rates of progression to AIDS and survival were significantly different between risk groups (P < .0001). The novel combination of these markers results in extremely accurate risk scores, which may serve as the basis for the development of true surrogate markers of disease progression.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome* / mortality
  • Antigens, CD / analysis
  • Biomarkers
  • CD4 Lymphocyte Count
  • Cohort Studies
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • HIV Infections* / immunology
  • HIV Infections* / mortality
  • Humans
  • Integrin beta1
  • Integrins / analysis
  • Male
  • Military Personnel
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Risk Factors
  • Survival Analysis

Substances

  • Antigens, CD
  • Biomarkers
  • Integrin beta1
  • Integrins