Estimation of incidence and recovery rates of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia from longitudinal data

Bull World Health Organ. 1976;54(6):685-93.

Abstract

A method is described of estimating the malaria incidence rate ĥ and the recovery rate r from longitudinal data. The method is based on the assumption that the phenomenon of patent parasitaemia can be represented by a reversible two-state catalytic model; it is applicable to all problems that can be represented by such a model.The method was applied to data on falciparum malaria from the West African savanna and the findings suggested that immunity increases the rate of recovery from patent parasitaemia by a factor of up to 10, and also reduces the number of episodes of patent parasitaemia resulting from one inoculation. Under the effect of propoxur, ĥ varies with the estimated man-biting rate of the vector while r increases, possibly owing to reduced super-infection.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Malaria / epidemiology*
  • Nigeria
  • Plasmodium falciparum
  • Seasons