Background: The objective of this study was to identify factors that categorize patients with epithelial ovarian carcinoma into favorable and unfavorable prognostic groups at the time of initial treatment.
Methods: Data were analyzed from 51 women who were treated at Yale University, had an evaluable CA 125 half-life (t1/2), and were followed for disease recurrence for at least 2 years.
Results: Grade, maximum level of CA 125, and histology did not provide useful prognostic information. Stage, residual disease, minimum CA 125, and CA 125 t1/2 individually were predictive of persistent disease or recurrence within 3 years of diagnosis with sensitivities of 97, 70, 34, and 49%, respectively, and specificities of 33, 83, 100, and 83%, respectively. When these factors are combined, defining an unfavorable prognostic group as those patients having residual disease greater than 1 cm, CA 125 t1/2 greater than 12 days, or minimum CA 125 never falling below 35 U/ml, sensitivity and specificity were 96 and 65%, respectively, at 1 year of follow-up and 91 and 75%, respectively, at 3 years of follow-up. 75%, respectively, at 3 years of follow-up.
Conclusions: In those patients in whom residual small volume disease after primary surgery indicates a good prognosis, minimum CA 125 and CA 125 t1/2 during chemotherapy can further categorize patients into favorable and unfavorable prognostic groups.