Background: The Minnesota Cancer Surveillance System (MCSS) provides information on the occurrence of newly diagnosed cancers among Minnesota residents. Cancer is a major cause of death and morbidity in older persons. Population cancer risk (PCR) was assessed as a measure of the number of cancers that will occur in the lifetime of 1000 persons.
Methods: Approximately 98.6% of all cancers diagnosed in residents of Minnesota are reported by pathologists to the MCSS. By statistical methodology an estimate was made of the total number of cancers that will occur in the lifetime of 1000 people (PCR). The calculation assumes people born today will have the 1988-1990 Minnesota cancer incidence and life expectancy rates.
Results: Incidence rates for all cancers in Minnesota have been increasing. Life expectancy in Minnesota is greater than in most areas of the United States. Approximately 50% of all cancers occurred in Minnesotans older than 70 years. The overall PCR is 459 cancers per 1000 lifetimes. It is estimated that by the year 2020 more than 100,000 living Minnesotans will have had cancer diagnosed during their lifetime.
Conclusion: During the next 20 years, as the Baby Boomer generation in Minnesota moves into the high-risk years for cancer, the number of newly diagnosed cancers will increase disproportionately more than the increase in size of the older population. In view of the projected number of patients with cancer by the year 2020, cancer care will be different from what it is today. Geriatric cancer care will become a significant medical, public health, economic, bioethical, and social issue.