Objectives: Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) has become the treatment of choice for patients with symptomatic cholelithiasis. About 10% of patients with symptomatic gallstones may bear associated common bile duct (CBD) stones. The preferred approach to these patients is the removal of CBD stones by endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERCP) before LC. However, ERCP before LC should be performed only in patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. The aims of this study were to: 1) generate an efficacious predictive model for selecting patients with suspected choledocholithiasis to submit to preoperative ERCP, and 2) test the safety of the endoscopic/laparoscopic procedure.
Methods: Historical, biochemical, and ultrasonographic data were collected prospectively. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was adopted for determining optimal biochemical and ultrasonographic cut-off values. Multivariate analysis using logistic regression with generation of the best model identifying independent predictors of CBD stones was also employed.
Results: The optimal model predicted a 95% probability of CBD stones in a patient who presented with elevated ALP (over 300 IU/L) and ALT (over 40 IU/L) levels and CBD dilation > 8 mm at ultrasonography. Endoscopic removal of CBD stones was achieved in 95% of patients, with minimal morbidity and no mortality.
Conclusions: The identified independent predictors of CBD stones are highly efficient selectors of patients with choledocholithiasis. Moreover, endoscopic removal of CBD stones before LC is a safe and efficacious procedure.