To investigate the impact of pre-operative autonomic balance and atrial ectopic activity on the risk of atrial fibrillation or flutter after aorto-coronary artery bypass surgery 24-hour Holter monitoring was analyzed in 102 patients before coronary artery bypass grafting. Index for vagal tone was calculated as % successive RR-interval differences > 6%. Twenty-nine (28%) of the 102 patients developed atrial fibrillation or flutter. Independent predictors (90% confidence interval) of postoperative atrial fibrillation or flutter were identified by logistic regression analysis: the independent predictors were older age, relative risk 1.07/year (1.02-1.12), vagal index < 10%, relative risk 4.50 (1.40-14.5), > or= 10 ectopic supraventricular beats/24 hour, relative risk 3.03 (1.05-8.72), and one or more event of non-sustained supraventricular tachycardia, relative risk 3.02 (1.11-8.22). Thus, age of the patient, attenuated preoperative cardiac vagal modulation, ectopic supraventricular beats, and paroxysmal non-sustained supraventricular tachycardia are independent risk factors for the development of atrial fibrillation or flutter after coronary artery bypass surgery.