Predictive diagnostics for logistic models

Stat Med. 1996 Oct 30;15(20):2149-60. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19961030)15:20<2149::AID-SIM360>3.0.CO;2-H.

Abstract

Novel methodology is implemented to assess the predictive power of covariate information associated with sequential binary events. Logistic models are first fitted on the basis of a subset of the observations and then evaluated sequentially on the rest. The probabilistic forecasts are compared to the outcomes via a scoring function, but as most validation samples are small, the usual reference distribution for the test statistics is inadequate. However, bootstrap-based distributions can easily be constructed. The first example pertains to the evaluation of screening tests for major depression. It illustrates that goodness-of-fit and predictive assessments lead to the selection of very different models. The second example deals with the prediction of a major event in the natural history of HIV-induced disease. It shows that this type of analysis can reveal features missed by other approaches.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Calibration
  • Chi-Square Distribution
  • Depression / etiology
  • Depression / prevention & control
  • Disease Progression
  • HIV Infections / complications
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models*
  • Mass Screening / instrumentation
  • Predictive Value of Tests*