Estimates of ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence to examine the Vienna Convention achievements

Nature. 1996 Nov 21;384(6606):256-8. doi: 10.1038/384256a0.

Abstract

Depletion of the ozone layer has been observed on a global scale, and is probably related to halocarbon emissions. Ozone depletion increases the biologically harmful solar ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface of the Earth, which leads to a variety of adverse effects, including an increase in the incidence of skin cancer. The 1985 Vienna Convention provided the framework for international restrictions on the production of ozone-depleting substances. The consequences of such restrictions have not yet been assessed in terms of effects avoided. Here we present a new method of estimating future excess skin cancer risks which is used to compare effects of a 'no restrictions' scenario with two restrictive scenarios specified under the Vienna Convention: the Montreal Protocol, and the much stricter Copenhagen Amendments. The no-restrictions and Montreal Protocol scenarios produce a runaway increase in skin cancer incidence, up to a quadrupling and doubling, respectively, by the year 2100. The Copenhagen Amendments scenario leads to an ozone minimum around the year 2000, and a peak relative increase in incidence of skin cancer of almost 10% occurring 60 years later. These results demonstrate the importance of the international measures agreed upon under the Vienna Convention.

MeSH terms

  • Atmosphere*
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • International Cooperation
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced / epidemiology*
  • Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced / etiology
  • Ozone*
  • Skin Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Skin Neoplasms / etiology
  • Ultraviolet Rays
  • United States / epidemiology

Substances

  • Ozone