Objectives: To determine whether the survival of patients with Kaposi's sarcoma as first manifestation of AIDS has changed between 1979 and 1989; and to define whether prognosis factors could be identified.
Patients and methods: This is a multicentric retrospective cohort study from 52 centers in 17 European countries involving adults AIDS patients diagnosed between 1979 and 1989. Variables such as age, sex, geographical regions, transmission groups, date of Kaposi's sarcoma diagnosis, zidovudine use, CD4+ cell count and concomitant opportunistic infections or AIDS-related malignancies were evaluated by using uni- and multivariable proportional hazard models. Log-rank tests were used to determine which variables were associated with survival.
Results: From the 6,546 AIDS patients recruited in the database of the AIDS in Europe Study Group, 1,394 were diagnosed with Kaposi's sarcoma at the time of AIDS diagnosis, from 1979 and 1989. A total of 1,047 Kaposi's sarcoma patients died during the follow-up period. By Kaplan-Meier analyses, the median and mean survival for these Kaposi's sarcoma patients were 17 and 25 months, respectively, with no change over time. However, age, sex (female), geographic region, low CD4+ cell count (< 150 x 10(6)/l) and some opportunistic infections and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma were associated with a poorer prognosis. Zidovudine use, year of diagnosis and risk factor for HIV-1 infection brought no additional information as predictor of mortality.
Conclusions: This study suggests that the survival of patients with Kaposi's sarcoma as first manifestation of AIDS has remained poor during the last decade in contrast with the overall AIDS survival which had significantly improved from a median of 13-18 months during the same period of observation. There is a need for further prospective information to explain the worse prognosis in women and the geographical variations.