Spatial and temporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of rural settlements: a case study of Xunwu County, Jiangxi Province, China

Urbanization and industrialization have driven rapid socio-economic development, leading to a significant population shift from rural areas to cities. This demographic transition has resulted in substantial changes in rural settlements, presenting considerable challenges for rural revitalization. Given the spatial differentiation, it is crucial to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of rural settlements under various development scenarios and at multiple scales within a county. Such analysis is essential for rational planning and sustainable development. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of rural settlements in Xunwu County, Jiangxi Province, China, using land use dynamics, hot and cold spot analysis, and center of gravity migration models. The Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression Model (MGWR) is employed to explore their transformation driving mechanisms. The results show that during 2010-2020 in the study area, the total change rate of rural settlements was 39.82%, with a dynamic degree of 2.87%. The average centroid of the settlements is located in Wenfeng Township, gradually migrating southeastward by 3.7 km. Cold spots are shrinking northward, while hotspots are gathering in Chengjiang Town. Socio-economic conditions dominate the evolution of rural clusters in this region, showing obvious spatial heterogeneity. This is followed by locational conditions that are weakening in influence, while the impact of natural geographical conditions exists in the northeast region. The research findings offer a scientifically rigorous and well-founded analysis of the evolution and driving mechanisms of rural settlements. This analysis provides a solid theoretical basis for policy planning in urban-rural integrated development and supports the sustainable growth of rural communities.