The Latest 2024 MLB Playoff Odds and Predictions With 1 Month to Go

Trying to predict who will win each division, wild-card spot, and playoff series is always a crapshoot. You don't know who will be healthy or what players will get hot at the right time for their respective teams.

However, making predictions is much easier in September than in March. It's still not an exact science, but it's much more of an educated guess.

With that acknowledged, here are the latest MLB odds and predictions with one month remaining in the season as the playoff race starts to come into focus.

DraftKings Odds To Win AL East: -140

For whatever skepticism you might have had about the depth of the Yankees, the one-two punch of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto is so powerful that they are the odds-on favorites to win the AL East.

In addition to Judge and Soto having monster seasons, reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole got on track in August, posting a 1.93 ERA over 28 innings. That's a welcome improvement from the 5.40 ERA he posted across his first seven starts after returning from an elbow injury.

The Baltimore Orioles are still nipping on the heels of the Yankees. However, general manager Mike Elias didn't do enough to upgrade the team's pitching—starting or relieving—to win a second successive AL East title.

If Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander can hit the O's to a second straight division title, it will be the first time since 1974 that Baltimore won the AL East in consecutive seasons.

DraftKings Odds To Win AL Central: -190

Both the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins are within five games, but first-year manager Stephen Vogt's Cleveland Guardians remain the best pick to win the AL Central.

Outfielder Lane Thomas' impact has been minimal for the Guardians since being acquired from the Washington Nationals, but 22-year-old Jhonkensy Noel has been a tremendous addition since being called up in late June. With an OPS over .900, Noel has added more thump to a lineup where José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan and David Fry have all had strong seasons.

Cleveland's lack of big-game starting pitchers may mean they have an expiration date in the playoffs, although Emmanuel Clase headlines baseball's best bullpen. If they have a lead after six innings, there's a good bet the Guardians will win.

Even if the Royals and Twins aren't able to usurp the Guardians in the AL Central, both remain firmly in the AL wild-card race.

DraftKings Odds To Win AL West: -900

You just can't kill the Astros.

The Astros have overcome a 24-32 start and look well on their way to winning an eighth consecutive playoff appearance and their seventh AL West title over that period. It doesn't hurt that the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers have both been under .500 since the All-Star break.

Both Yordan Álvarez and Alex Bregman have been hot since the Midsummer Classic. If Joe Espada's team can get Kyle Tucker back from a shin contusion that's sidelined him since early June, they'll have quite the quartet with Jose Altuve's continued excellence factored in.

With Bregman and Justin Verlander set to become free agents after this season, this may be the last shot for this group to win a third title together, cementing their place as a dynasty. They'll at least be in the postseason.

1. New York Yankees (first-round bye)

2. Cleveland Guardians (first-round bye)

3. Houston Astros

4. Baltimore Orioles

5. Kansas City Royals

6. Minnesota Twins

Barring unexpected hot streaks from the Boston Red Sox or Mariners, these will be the six teams in the postseason. It's just a matter of what seed each team is.

The most likely scenario is that the winner of the AL East—Yankees or Orioles—will be the top seed and have a first-round bye. The Guardians are still in play for the top seed, assuming they win the AL Central. The winner of the AL Central is likely to claim one of the two first-round byes available.

There appears to be a real shot that regardless of who wins the AL Central, the division will produce three playoff teams, just a year after the Twins were the only of the five teams to post a winning record. Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and the Royals would be the most remarkable turnaround, as they lost 106 games last season.

DraftKings Odds To Win NL East: -900

The Phillies are under .500 since the All-Star break, but they built themselves quite a cushion with a 62-34 first half. It would behoove them to have a strong finish to the regular season to build momentum before the playoffs, but unless September is a disaster, the Phillies are going to win the NL East for the first time since 2011.

Rob Thomson's squad will have as good of a starting pitching quartet as any team, with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez. Three of those four were All-Stars this season, and the other is Nola, who is probably the most steady starter in the sport.

The biggest question for the Phillies will be what version of their lineup shows up in the postseason. When Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber are locked in, this lineup can slug with anyone. But while Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto have been hot of late, the aforementioned trio has underwhelmed in the second half, with Harper even admitting he's playing through some pain.

Given that Ronald Acũna and Spencer Strider were lost for the season and that Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy and Michael Harris II have all missed significant chunks of time, it's incredible that Brian Snitker's Braves are even still in the playoff picture. They still have an outside shot at their seventh NL East title in a row, but there would be zero shame in a wild-card spot given how much adversity they've faced in 2024.

DraftKings Odds To Win NL Central: -20000

Post-Corbin Burnes and with Brandon Woodruff shelved for the season as he recovered from shoulder surgery, the Brewers were a popular team to fade before the season. Instead, they are running away with the NL Central and have a real shot to earn the No. 2 seed in the postseason. First-year skipper Pat Murphy figures to run away with NL Manager of the Year.

That doesn't mean there aren't still concerns in Milwaukee. Even if Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, and Tobias Myers have headlined a rotation that's been better than expected, the Brewers will still have one of the weaker starting staffs in the playoffs. Former NL MVP Christian Yelich is out for the season after undergoing back surgery.

With that said, we underestimated some of the areas of strength for the Brew Crew.

Devin Williams, Trevor Megill, Jared Koenig and Bryan Hudson are all finally healthy at the same time, giving Murphy a bullpen that could be a real advantage if Milwaukee can jump out to early postseason leads.

Even without Yelich, there's still plenty to like about the lineup for the Brewers. Rookie Jackson Chourio has a .924 OPS since the All-Star break. William Contreras is one of the best catchers in baseball. Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins are both veterans who have played in the World Series and could make quite a bit of money this offseason with big postseason performances this year.

DraftKings Odds To Win NL West: -1400

It shouldn't be taken for granted that the Dodgers will be able to hold off both the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres in the NL West, but they are still the best bet to win it. Bay far.

The Dodgers are also currently in control of the No. 1 seed in the Senior Circuit, which would come with a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. However, it is worth pointing out that they've been eliminated in the NLDS in consecutive seasons by division rivals after earning first-round byes.

Manager Dave Roberts gets to pencil in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, and Will Smith to his lineup every night. Even with some question marks at the bottom of the lineup, it's hard to beat that top five.

Where serious questions remain are the starting pitching staff. Gavin Stone and Jack Flaherty figure to be part of the rotation in the postseason. But are we sure that any of Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller will be healthy and/or effective in October? It's hard to win a World Series without certainty in the starting rotation.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (first-round bye)

2. Philadelphia Phillies (first-round bye)

3. Milwaukee Brewers

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

5. San Diego Padres

6. Atlanta Braves

Like the AL, the six participants are almost certainly set in the NL, although the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs are among the teams currently on the outside looking in who aren't mathematically eliminated.

Among the most exciting races here are the No. 2 seed in the NL and the order in which the three wild-card teams will finish.

The Phillies' starting pitching is significantly better than that of the Brewers, which is what gives them the edge heading into the final month of the season. It would hardly be a shock, though, if the Brewers edge them out for the No. 2 seed in the NL, which comes with a first-round bye.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have been red-hot since the All-Star break, with a 27-10 record. Ditto for the Padres, who are 26-11. Neither team is likely to catch the Dodgers and win the NL West, but whoever emerges from their NLWCS matchup will be a force to be reckoned with. As will the Braves, particularly if they get Albies and Riley back sometime in October.

ALWCS 1: Astros over Twins

ALWCS 2: Royals over Orioles

NLWCS 1: Braves over Brewers

NLWCS 2: Diamondbacks over Padres

Wild Card Series Notes

- Yankees, Guardians, Dodgers and Phillies have first-round byes

- The Twins are looking to win their first playoff series since defeating the Oakland A's in the 2002 ALDS. Since then, they've lost 10 consecutive postseason series. We have that streak falling to 11 at the hands of the Astros, one of the most experienced postseason teams ever.

- Back in the postseason for the first time since winning the 2015 World Series, the Royals ride the excellent pitching quartet of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Brady Singer and Michael Wacha to an upset of the Orioles, whose pitching is leaking oil currently.

- Will the Braves have enough healthy hitters to compete in a seven-game postseason series? Perhaps not. But some combination of Chris Sale, Max Fried and Reynaldo López will be dangerous enough to help them upset the Brewers in the NLWCS.

- It's possible that this ends up being the best series of the postseason. It's a shame it would only be four games. Both teams have played excellent ball since the All-Star break, but Chase Field is such a quirky stadium that it's hard to go into and win two out of three. Edge, Diamondbacks.

ALDS 1: Yankees over Royals

ALDS 2: Astros over Guardians

NLDS 1: Dodgers over Braves

NLDS 2: Diamondbacks over Phillies

Divison Series Notes

- The Yankees are looking to advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2019, a lifetime in terms of that franchise. Kansas City probably has better starting pitching, but not enough to get by Judge and Soto.

- This would mark the eighth consecutive season that the Astros reached the ALCS. For as much as there is to like about Cleveland's bullpen and lineup, they don't have the starting pitching to make a deep run.

- If any team has the number of the Phillies, it appears to be the Diamondbacks, particularly at Chase Field. The Phillies lost two of three games in Phoenix during the NLCS last year. The Snakes took three of four from the Phillies at Chase Field in August, outscoring them 30-14.

- While it's fair to be hesitant about the starting pitching of the Dodgers and Dave Roberts' squad in October in general, there's enough working against the Braves that they might not have enough to upset Los Angeles in 2024.

ALCS: Yankees over Astros

This, of course, would be a loaded ALCS matchup given the hatred between the two fan bases, and in some cases, even the players on the teams.

Seven years after the Astros won this matchup—under what we've since learned were questionable circumstances—Judge and Soto will power the Yankees to an AL pennant.

Truthfully, though, it's reasonable to have questions about the starting pitching depth of both teams. But the best pitching team in the AL, the Mariners, is likely to miss the playoffs. Of the teams in the postseason, the Royals might have the best starting pitching, but enough lineup questions that they might be a year away.

NLCS: Diamondbacks over Dodgers

The Diamondbacks upset the Dodgers in the NLDS a year ago. Granted, the Dodgers didn't have Shohei Ohtani or Teoscar Hernández yet, but Arizona is quite a bit better too. Among those now in the picture for the Diamondbacks are Joc Pederson, A.J. Puk, Josh Bell and Adrian Del Castillo. Jake McCarthy has also had a breakout second half.

If at least one of Eduardo Rodríguez or Jordan Montgomery can get going, Torey Lovullo will have quite the rotation when you also factor in Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt.

Could the Diamondbacks really win two consecutive NL pennants? Yes.

World Series: Diamondbacks over Yankees

In 2002, the Giants reached the World Series led by the incredible one-two punch of Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent. The Yankees have a similar duo in Judge and Soto, which will be enough to get them back to the Fall Classic for the first time since 2009.

However, the Giants lost the 2002 World Series in seven games, and that's what we're projecting will happen to the Yankees. And just like in 2001, it will be at the hands of the Diamondbacks.

Arizona doesn't have a Randy Johnson-Curt Schilling duo atop their rotation this time, but if their pitching staff is healthy, they can go game-for-game with anyone. There's less certainty in New York, where you're still not entirely sure how good Cole is right now and there are real questions about any of the candidates—Luis Gil, Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodón and Marcus Stroman—to pitch after him in the series. For as great as Judge and Soto are, Aaron Boone's squad might be too top-heavy to come away with World Series No. 28 this year.

The Diamondbacks don't necessarily have a superstar, given that Corbin Carroll has had a disappointing second season. However, Carroll has performed much better since the All-Star Break, and there's a lot of really good around him in the lineup, particularly if Christian Walker returns from a left oblique strain in the postseason.

In a year where there probably won't be a 100-win team, it's particularly difficult to predict a World Series winner. The Diamondbacks are a team playing very well right now and have the right mix of pieces to win in October.