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Recent doubling time (months)Recent trend in training compute (oom/year)Time for cost of compute to fall by OOMTime it takes for cost to increase by OOM (years) Low endTime it takes for cost to increase by OOM (years) High end
Predicted date when training runs hit $200B ceiling low end
Predicted date when training runs hit $200B ceiling high end		Addition time specialised hardware could buy (years) low endAddition time specialised hardware could buy (years) high end
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Carey (2018)3.50.9694-12 years1.131.392026.862027.983.394.17
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The same analysis but using our numbers60.6174-12 years1.872.732030.062033.735.628.18
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When must the current scaling trend end?
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BearishMiddle of roadBullish
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Carey (2018)2026.862027.982033.61
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The same but our numbers2030.062033.732039.35
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