Cattle ISSN: 1948-9099 Released July 19, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). July 1 Cattle Inventory Unchanged All cattle and calves in the United States on July 1, 2019 totaled 103 million head, unchanged from the 103 million head on July 1, 2018. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 41.7 million head, were slightly below the 41.8 million head on July 1, 2018. Beef cows, at 32.4 million head, were unchanged from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.30 million head, were down 1 percent from previous year. All heifers 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2019 totaled 16.4 million head, 1 percent above the 16.3 million head on July 1, 2018. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.40 million head, were down 4 percent from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 4.10 million head, were down 2 percent from previous year. Other heifers, at 7.90 million head, were 5 percent above a year earlier. Steers 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2019 totaled 14.7 million head, up 1 percent from July 1, 2018. Bulls 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2019 totaled 2.10 million head, unchanged from July 1, 2018. Calves under 500 pounds on July 1, 2019 totaled 28.1 million head, down 1 percent from July 1, 2018. Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.6 million head on July 1, 2019. The inventory is up 2 percent from the July 1, 2018 total of 13.3 million head. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 84.4 percent of the total cattle on feed on July 1, 2019, down slightly from previous year. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots) is 37.1 million head. This is slightly above the 37.0 million head on July 1, 2018. Calf Crop Down Slightly The 2019 calf crop in the United States is expected to be 36.3 million head, down slightly from last year's calf crop. Calves born during the first half of 2019 are estimated at 26.5 million head, down slightly from the first half of 2018. An additional 9.80 million calves are expected to be born during the second half of 2019. This report was approved on July 19, 2019. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Robert Johansson Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons Cattle Inventory by Class and Calf Crop - United States: July 1, 2018 and 2019 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Percent of Class : 2018 : 2019 :previous year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 head ----- percent : Cattle and calves ...................: 103,000.0 103,000.0 100 : Cows and heifers that have calved ...: 41,800.0 41,700.0 100 Beef cows .........................: 32,400.0 32,400.0 100 Milk cows .........................: 9,400.0 9,300.0 99 : Heifers 500 pounds and over .........: 16,300.0 16,400.0 101 For beef cow replacement ..........: 4,600.0 4,400.0 96 For milk cow replacement ..........: 4,200.0 4,100.0 98 Other heifers .....................: 7,500.0 7,900.0 105 : Steers 500 pounds and over ..........: 14,500.0 14,700.0 101 Bulls 500 pounds and over ...........: 2,100.0 2,100.0 100 Calves under 500 pounds .............: 28,300.0 28,100.0 99 : Calf crop ...........................: 36,402.7 36,300.0 100 : Cattle on feed ......................: 13,300.0 13,600.0 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Calf Crop and Percent of Total by Six-Month Period - United States: 2018 and Preliminary 2019 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 2018 : 2019 :------------------------------------------------------- Period : : Percent of : : Percent of : Number : total : Number : total ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 head percent 1,000 head percent : January 1 - June 30 ........: 26,600.0 73.1 26,500.0 73.0 July 1 - December 31 .......: 9,802.7 26.9 9,800.0 27.0 : Total ......................: 36,402.7 100.0 36,300.0 100.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of United States producers were surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. During the first half of June, a probability area frame survey was conducted with a sample of 9,000 segments or parcels of land from which agricultural operations were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. Data collected during the June Area Survey were used for cattle operations not on the list frame. During July, a probability list frame survey with a sample of approximately 16,000 producers and feedlots was conducted. These operations were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews and 70 percent of the reports were usable. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of 2019. Estimating Procedures: These cattle estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing National indications and analysis. National survey data was reviewed for reasonableness with estimates from the previous year using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports for the first six months, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths for the first six months of the current year. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness. Class estimates are rounded to the nearest 100,000 head with the exception of beef and milk cows which are rounded to the nearest 50,000 head. Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The revisions are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Reliability: Since all cattle operators are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and latest estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for July cattle inventory estimates over the past 10 years is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 103 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. The table on the following page shows a 10 year record of the range of differences between first and latest estimates for selected items. Using estimates of all cattle and calves as an example, changes between the first inventory estimate and the latest estimate during the past 10 years have averaged 370,000 head, ranging from 0 to 1,000,000 head. During this period the initial inventory estimate has been below the latest estimate 3 times and has been above the latest estimate 5 times. This does not imply that the July 1 estimate is likely to understate or overstate final inventory. Reliability of July 1 Cattle Estimates [Based on data from the past 10 years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate : square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------------- Item : : : : : : Years : : : : : :------------------------------- : : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent ------ 1,000 head ------ ----- number ---- : All cattle and calves ...................: 0.5 0.9 370 0 1,000 3 5 : All cows and heifers that have calved ...: 0.5 0.9 130 0 400 1 5 : Calf crop ...............................: 0.7 1.4 210 20 542 2 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov. Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ......... (202) 720-3570 Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424 Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (202) 690-8632 Holly Brenize - Sheep and Goats .............. (202) 720-0585 Donnie Fike - Dairy Products ................. (202) 720-4448 Heidi Lanouette - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ..... (202) 720-3040 Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278 Seth Riggins - Hogs and Pigs ................. (202) 720-3106 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. 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