Turkey Hatchery ISSN: 1949-1964 Released November 17, 2023, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Eggs in Incubators on November 1 Down 3 Percent from Last Year Turkey eggs in incubators on November 1, 2023 in the United States totaled 25.8 million, down 3 percent from November 1, 2022. Eggs in incubators were down 5 percent from the October 1, 2023 total of 27.0 million eggs. Poults Hatched During October Up 2 Percent from Last Year Turkey poults hatched during October 2023 in the United States totaled 23.0 million, up 2 percent from October 2022. Poults hatched were up 6 percent from the September 2023 total of 21.6 million poults. Net Poults Placed During October Up 2 Percent from Last Year The 20.8 million net poults placed during October 2023 in the United States were up 2 percent from the number placed during the same month a year earlier. Net poult placements were up 9 percent from the September 2023 total of 19.1 million. Eggs in Incubators and Poults Hatched by Month - United States: 2022-2024 [Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ :Eggs in incubators first of month: Percent of : Poults hatched entire month : Percent of Month :---------------------------------: :---------------------------------: : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : previous year : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : previous year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 eggs ----- percent ----- 1,000 poults ---- percent : September ........: 27,508 26,636 97 22,254 21,571 97 October ..........: 26,648 27,010 101 22,454 22,952 102 November .........: 26,479 25,752 97 22,615 December .........: 26,595 22,853 January ..........: 27,284 23,399 February .........: 27,608 21,700 March ............: 26,757 23,619 April ............: 26,389 21,115 May ..............: 27,625 23,576 June .............: 27,455 23,976 July .............: 26,984 22,627 August ...........: 27,208 23,451 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Net Poult Placements by Month - United States: 2022-2024 [Includes imports and excludes exports. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Total all breeds : Percent of : Cumulative total : Percent of Month :---------------------------------: :---------------------------------: : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : previous year : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : previous year ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ----- 1,000 poults ---- percent ----- 1,000 poults ----- percent : September ........: 19,760 19,091 97 19,760 19,091 97 October ..........: 20,472 20,790 102 40,232 39,881 99 November .........: 20,802 61,034 December .........: 20,955 81,989 January ..........: 21,582 103,571 February .........: 19,871 123,442 March ............: 21,912 145,354 April ............: 19,919 165,273 May ..............: 22,295 187,568 June .............: 23,095 210,663 July .............: 22,447 233,110 August ...........: 22,429 255,539 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: Data for turkey hatchery estimates are collected from all known turkey hatcheries. Individual NASS regional field offices maintain a list of all known turkey hatcheries and use known sources of hatcheries to update their lists. Approximately 40 hatcheries in 20 states are contacted each month. All known turkey hatcheries hatching 15,000 or more poults annually are mailed a questionnaire as close to the first of the month as possible. Adequate time is given to respond via mail, fax, or electronic data reporting. Those that do not respond are contacted by phone. Care is exercised to ensure that all hatcheries are accounted for in the estimate. Estimating Procedures: Sound statistical methodology is employed to derive the estimates from reported data. All data are analyzed for unusual values. Data from each operation are compared to their own past operating profile and to trends from similar operations. Data for missing operations were estimated based on similar operations or historical data. NASS regional field offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications and historic trends. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Individual hatchery data are summed to State, regional, and United States totals. Only United States level estimates are published due to the limited number of hatcheries involved. The Net Poult Placement data include imported poults and exclude exported poults. Cumulative net poult placements beginning on September 1 and ending on August 31 are shown in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report. This time period corresponds with the placements of poults which will reach maturity and be available for slaughter during the calendar year. Revision Policy: Revisions are generally the result of late or corrected data. Revisions to the previous month are published in the monthly Turkey Hatchery report, while annual revisions are published in the Hatchery Production - Annual Summary report in April. Reliability: Turkey hatchery estimates are based on a census of all known operating hatcheries and therefore, have no sampling error. However, estimates are subject to errors such as omission, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. While these errors cannot be measured directly, they are minimized through strict quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the month over the past 24 months is 1.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 25.8 million eggs by more than 1.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.7 percent. Reliability of November Turkey Hatchery Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate :square error : confidence : : : : : : : level :------------------------------------------------------ Item : : : : : : Months : : : : : :--------------------------- : : :Average :Smallest:Largest :Below latest :Above latest ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : percent percent ------- 1,000 ------- ---- number ---- : Eggs in incubators ................: 1.6 2.7 325 11 996 12 12 : Poults hatched ....................: 0.9 1.5 139 1 514 14 10 : Net poult placements ..............: 1.2 2.1 175 2 750 14 10 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Travis Averill, Chief, Livestock Branch ............................... (202) 692-0069 Jean Porter, Head, Poultry and Specialty Commodities Section .......... (202) 690-3223 Holly Brenize - Poultry Slaughter................................... (202) 720-0585 Liana Cuffman - Catfish and Trout, Mink, Census of Aquaculture ..... (202) 720-8784 Fatema Haque - Turkey Hatchery, Turkeys Raised ..................... (202) 720-3244 Derron Martin - Chicken Hatchery, Egg Products...................... (202) 690-3237 Seth Riggins - Honey, Honey Bee Colonies ........................... (202) 690-4870 Shulonda Shaw - Cold Storage, Capacity of Refrigerated Warehouses .. (202) 720-3240 Autumn Stone - Layers, Eggs ........................................ (202) 690-3676 Takiyah Walker - Broiler Hatchery................................... 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