Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released January 12, 2024, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Up 2 Percent from December Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is 2.80 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast and up 12 percent from the 2022-2023 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 20.5 million boxes (923,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 30 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 7.50 million boxes (338,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 22 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (585,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but up 35 percent from last season's final utilization. The California all orange forecast is 45.8 million boxes (1.83 million tons), is up 3 percent from previous forecast and up 6 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 38.0 million boxes (1.52 million tons), up 3 percent from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from last season's final utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 7.80 million boxes (312,000 tons), up 4 percent from the previous forecast and up 16 percent from last season's final utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 950,000 boxes (41,000 tons) up 19 percent from the previous forecast but down 16 percent from last season's final utilization. This report was approved on January 12, 2024. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Robert Bonnie Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and Forecasted January 1, 2024.......................................................................................... 4 Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2022 and 2023...................... 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 December Weather Summary................................................................................. 13 December Agricultural Summary............................................................................ 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of January 1 Crop Production Forecasts....................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and Forecasted January 1, 2024 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 43,200 45,800 1,728 1,832 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 36,500 38,000 1,460 1,520 Valencia ..................: 6,700 7,800 268 312 : Florida, all ...............: 15,800 20,500 711 923 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 6,150 7,500 277 338 Valencia ..................: 9,650 13,000 434 585 : Texas, all .................: 1,130 950 48 41 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 570 600 24 26 Valencia ..................: 560 350 24 15 : United States, all .........: 60,130 67,250 2,487 2,796 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 43,220 46,100 1,761 1,884 Valencia ..................: 16,910 21,150 726 912 : Grapefruit : California .................: 4,000 3,800 160 152 Florida ....................: 1,810 2,400 77 102 Texas ......................: 2,250 2,350 90 94 : United States ..............: 8,060 8,550 327 348 : Tangerines and mandarins 3/ : California .................: 23,700 22,000 948 880 Florida ....................: 480 550 23 26 : United States ..............: 24,180 22,550 971 906 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 1,400 900 56 36 California .................: 26,500 20,000 1,060 800 : United States ..............: 27,900 20,900 1,116 836 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Hay Stocks on Farms - States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2022 and 2023 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : May 1 : December 1 State :------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2022 : 2023 : 2022 : 2023 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 tons : Alabama .......: 240 160 1,300 1,100 Arizona .......: 20 20 260 460 Arkansas ......: 260 200 1,440 1,550 California ....: 280 325 1,155 1,550 Colorado ......: 580 170 1,350 1,650 Connecticut ...: 5 7 41 42 Delaware ......: 2 2 11 13 Florida .......: 75 30 450 470 Georgia .......: 190 120 950 930 Idaho .........: 530 460 2,500 2,550 : Illinois ......: 260 240 980 860 Indiana .......: 240 220 770 850 Iowa ..........: 720 380 2,480 2,140 Kansas ........: 670 720 4,100 3,600 Kentucky ......: 960 630 3,100 3,000 Louisiana .....: 180 90 610 560 Maine .........: 30 29 142 157 Maryland ......: 66 49 300 295 Massachusetts .: 8 11 39 40 Michigan ......: 270 230 980 870 : Minnesota .....: 330 560 2,190 1,330 Mississippi ...: 180 110 800 710 Missouri ......: 1,100 820 4,650 4,700 Montana .......: 450 450 3,250 3,850 Nebraska ......: 1,270 530 3,000 3,850 Nevada ........: 52 105 560 770 New Hampshire .: 5 6 41 40 New Jersey ....: 14 15 77 84 New Mexico ....: 30 30 200 250 New York ......: 550 490 1,400 845 : North Carolina : 150 125 990 930 North Dakota ..: 520 860 3,300 4,250 Ohio ..........: 360 350 1,350 1,120 Oklahoma ......: 600 400 3,000 5,900 Oregon ........: 220 230 1,410 1,200 Pennsylvania ..: 340 380 1,630 1,540 Rhode Island ..: 1 1 5 5 South Carolina : 80 70 380 460 South Dakota ..: 1,090 1,250 4,350 5,400 Tennessee .....: 530 400 2,650 2,750 : Texas .........: 1,600 940 5,000 5,500 Utah ..........: 290 480 1,250 1,360 Vermont .......: 34 33 175 150 Virginia ......: 280 320 1,700 1,750 Washington ....: 180 360 1,200 1,500 West Virginia .: 105 175 780 780 Wisconsin .....: 630 560 2,165 1,520 Wyoming .......: 200 190 1,300 1,490 : United States .: 16,777 14,333 71,761 76,721 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3,101 2,555 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 94,641 86,513 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,471 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 52,821 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 15,634 All other ............................: (NA) 37,187 Oats ...................................: 2,555 831 Proso millet ...........................: 619 572 Rice ...................................: 2,894 2,854 Rye ....................................: 2,293 322 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 7,195 6,115 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 384 Wheat, all .............................: 49,575 37,272 Winter ...............................: 36,699 34,425 24,683 Durum ................................: 1,676 1,604 Other spring .........................: 11,200 10,985 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,344.5 2,319.2 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 178 160 Mustard seed ...........................: 245.0 238.1 Peanuts ................................: 1,645.0 1,574.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 13.2 10.1 Safflower ..............................: 129.5 126.0 Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,600 82,356 Sunflower ..............................: 1,315.0 1,267.5 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 10,230.0 7,064.6 Upland ...............................: 10,083.0 6,924.8 American Pima ........................: 147.0 139.8 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,137.4 1,127.3 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 931.5 Tobacco ................................: (NA) 187.6 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 372.4 359.2 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,180.0 1,156.9 Dry edible peas ........................: 966.0 941.0 Lentils ................................: 546.0 523.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 54.3 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 31.3 Potatoes ...............................: 965.0 960.2 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 12.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 72.4 185,036 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 177.3 15,341,595 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 129,994 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.25 118,769 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.19 49,916 All other ........................tons: 1.85 68,853 Oats ............................bushels: 68.6 57,045 Proso millet ....................bushels: 34.2 19,572 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,649 218,291 Rye .............................bushels: 32.2 10,375 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 52.0 317,745 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.0 4,981 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 48.6 1,811,977 Winter ........................bushels: 50.6 1,247,748 Durum .........................bushels: 37.0 59,329 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.0 504,900 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,793 4,157,420 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 3,788.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 18.5 2,961 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 627 149,305 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,742 5,890,020 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,003 20,230 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,036 130,570 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.6 4,164,677 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,786 2,263,520 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 845 12,434.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 841 12,127.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,054 307.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 31.2 35,226 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 35.4 32,956 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,305 432,452 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,315 4,722 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,067 23,910 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,922 18,086 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,098 5,742 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,915 104,042.5 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,179 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 666,647 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 90 2,811 Potatoes ............................cwt: 459 440,750 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 126 1,541 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,254,940 1,033,980 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 38,300,270 35,010,950 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,618,750 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 21,376,130 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,326,920 All other ....................: (NA) 15,049,210 Oats ...........................: 1,033,980 336,300 Proso millet ...................: 250,500 231,480 Rice ...........................: 1,171,170 1,154,990 Rye ............................: 927,950 130,310 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,911,740 2,474,680 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 155,400 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 20,062,510 15,083,610 Winter .......................: 14,851,720 13,931,450 9,988,960 Durum ........................: 678,260 649,120 Other spring .................: 4,532,530 4,445,520 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 948,800 938,560 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 72,030 64,750 Mustard seed ...................: 99,150 96,360 Peanuts ........................: 665,720 636,980 Rapeseed .......................: 5,340 4,090 Safflower ......................: 52,410 50,990 Soybeans for beans .............: 33,832,080 33,328,650 Sunflower ......................: 532,170 512,940 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,139,980 2,858,970 Upland .......................: 4,080,490 2,802,400 American Pima ................: 59,490 56,580 Sugarbeets .....................: 460,290 456,210 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 376,970 Tobacco ........................: (NA) 75,930 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 150,710 145,360 Dry edible beans ...............: 477,530 468,190 Dry edible peas ................: 390,930 380,810 Lentils ........................: 220,960 211,650 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 21,980 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 12,670 Potatoes .......................: 390,530 388,580 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,940 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.90 4,028,680 Corn for grain .........................: 11.13 389,694,460 Corn for silage ........................: 45.03 117,928,570 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.04 107,745,420 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.16 45,283,030 All other ............................: 4.15 62,462,390 Oats ...................................: 2.46 828,010 Proso millet ...........................: 1.92 443,890 Rice ...................................: 8.57 9,901,510 Rye ....................................: 2.02 263,540 Sorghum for grain ......................: 3.26 8,071,090 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.08 4,518,690 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.27 49,313,930 Winter ...............................: 3.40 33,958,140 Durum ................................: 2.49 1,614,670 Other spring .........................: 3.09 13,741,130 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.01 1,885,770 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,436,420 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.16 75,210 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.70 67,720 Peanuts ................................: 4.19 2,671,670 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.25 9,180 Safflower ..............................: 1.16 59,230 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.40 113,343,930 Sunflower ..............................: 2.00 1,026,720 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 2,707,180 Upland ...............................: 0.94 2,640,340 American Pima ........................: 1.18 66,840 Sugarbeets .............................: 70.05 31,956,490 Sugarcane ..............................: 79.31 29,897,180 Tobacco ................................: 2.58 196,160 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.47 214,190 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.32 1,084,540 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.15 820,370 Lentils ................................: 1.23 260,450 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.15 47,190 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 20,900 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 302,390 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 1,280 Potatoes ...............................: 51.45 19,992,090 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 700 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 327 348 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,116 836 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,487 2,796 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 971 906 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 9,910.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 32,400 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 371,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 203.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,620,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 6,285,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 543,000 Pears .................................tons: 645,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,600,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 251,500 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 760,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 296,650 315,700 Lemons ....................................: 1,012,420 758,410 Oranges ...................................: 2,256,170 2,536,490 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 880,880 821,910 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,495,100 Apricots ..................................: 29,390 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 336,570 Cherries, Tart ............................: 92,080 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 345,640 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,701,660 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 492,600 Pears .....................................: 585,130 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,179,340 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 114,080 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 689,460 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. December Weather Summary As December began, producers had completed most harvest activities for 2023 crops. By November 26, only 4 percent of the Nation's corn acreage had not been harvested, compared to the 5-year average of 5 percent. On the same date, the national cotton harvest was 83 percent complete, ahead of the 5-year average of 79 percent. Thereafter, December featured periods of significant precipitation in several areas of the country, including large sections of the Plains, upper Midwest, and Atlantic Coast States. However, drier-than-normal December weather dominated the mid-South and interior sections of the western United States. In the latter region, mountain snowpack was slow to build, due to a combination of mild weather and lack of storminess. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack stood at 2.5 inches by month's end, approximately one quarter of the end-of-December average. Mild December weather covered not only the West, but also the remainder of the country. Characteristic of El Niño, which developed several months ago but only recently began to strongly influence North American weather patterns, the warmest weather-with temperatures averaging at least 6 to 12°F above normal-stretched from the northern and central Plains into the Northeast. Even relatively cooler areas, such as the lower Southeast, noted near- or slightly above-normal December temperatures. For parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest, it was the warmest December on record. In South Dakota alone, it was the warmest December in dozens of communities, including Huron, Mitchell, Mobridge, Sioux Falls, Sisseton, and Watertown. In each of those locations, previous records for December warmth had been set in 1939 or earlier. The mild weather, accompanied by periods of rain and snow, favored overwintering wheat, despite lingering pockets of drought. Based on Drought Monitor-derived statistics, drought covered 30 percent of the Nation's winter wheat production area on December 26, down from a recent (October 2023) peak of 49 percent. According to USDA/NASS, winter wheat rated in very poor to poor condition improved in a few key production states between November 26 and the end of December. For example, winter wheat rated very poor to poor in Kansas decreased from 32 to 21 percent during that 5-week period. At the same time, wheat rated good to excellent jumped from 53 to 67 percent in Oklahoma and from 32 to 43 percent in Kansas. Nationally, drought coverage decreased from 36 to 32 percent between November 28 and December 26, according to the Drought Monitor. General improvement in the drought situation was noted across the central and southern Plains, upper Midwest, and Pacific Northwest, as well as an area stretching from the central Gulf Coast into the middle Atlantic States. Record-setting December wetness affected portions of the mid-Atlantic, including Richmond, Virginia, and Allentown, Pennsylvania. However, those improvements were partially offset by worsening conditions in a few areas, including the mid-South, lower Midwest, and portions of the northern Rockies and environs. December Agricultural Summary Most of the Nation was warmer than normal during the month of December. Large parts of the Upper Midwest, Northern Plains, and Northern Rockies recorded temperatures 9°F or more above normal. Most of Minnesota recorded temperatures 12°F or more above normal. Most of the Great Basin and Northern Rockies, as well as large parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, South, and Southwest, remained drier than normal. In contrast, much of the Atlantic Coast, Gulf Coast, New England, and Great Plains recorded at least twice the normal amount precipitation for the month. Locations in the Rockies and Southwest also recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Ninety-six percent of the 2023 corn acreage was harvested by November 26, three percentage points behind last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average harvest pace. Nationwide, 91 percent of the winter wheat acreage had emerged by November 26, one percentage point ahead of last year and 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. As of November 26, fifty percent of the 2024 winter wheat acreage was reported in good to excellent condition, 16 percentage points above the same time last year. By November 26, eighty-three percent of the Nation's cotton acreage was harvested, equal to last year but 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Ninety-six percent of the Nation's peanut acreage was harvested as of November 26, one percentage point behind last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. By November 26, eighty-six percent of this year's sunflower crop was harvested, 12 percentage points behind last year but 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2023-2024 grapefruit crop is forecast at 348,000 tons, up 5 percent from the previous forecast and up 6 percent from last season's final utilization. California's grapefruit forecast at 3.80 million boxes (152,000 tons), is up 9 percent from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from last season. The Texas grapefruit forecast at 2.35 million boxes (94,000 tons) is up 7 percent from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from the 2022- 2023 season. The Florida forecast, at 2.40 million boxes (102,000 tons), is unchanged from previous forecast but up 33 percent from the last season. Lemons: The 2023-2024 United States lemon crop is forecast at 836,000 tons, down 15 percent from previous forecast and down 25 percent from last season's final utilization. The California forecast, at 20.0 million boxes (800,000 tons), is down 13 percent from the previous forecast and down 25 percent from the 2022-2023 season. The Arizona forecast, at 900,000 boxes (36,000 tons), is down 40 percent from the previous forecast and down 36 percent from last year. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 906,000 tons, down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 7 percent from the last season's final utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast, at 22.0 million boxes (880,000 tons) is down 4 percent from last forecast and down 7 percent from last year. Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms as of December 1, 2023, totaled 76.7 million tons, up 7 percent from December 1, 2022. Disappearance from May 1, 2023 - December 1, 2023, totaled 56.4 million tons, down 1 percent from the same period in 2022. Record low December 1 hay stock levels were estimated in Minnesota, New York, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the January 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published January 1 forecast. Revision policy: The January 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of- season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the January 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the January 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the January 1 orange production forecast is 6.3 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 6.3 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 11.0 percent. Changes between the January 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 295,000 tons, ranging from 2,000 tons to 843,000 tons. The January 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 5 times and above 15 times. The difference does not imply that the January 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of January 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 6.3 11.0 295 2 843 5 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Chris Hawthorn, Acting Chief, Crops Branch........................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section............................................ (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition...................................... (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans............................................. (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings.. (202) 690-1042 David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products........................... (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat..................................................... (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet..................................... (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................. (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds...................................... (202) 720-7369 Jennifer Van Court - Peanuts, Rice.............................................. (202) 720-2127 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco............................................................... (202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans, Sweet Corn, Tomatoes................................................................. (202) 720-7235 Robert Little - Blueberries, Cabbage, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Pears, Raspberries, Spinach............................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Asparagus, Celery, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios............... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......................... (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans............................ 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