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{{Short description|
{{update|discoveries since 2018; date=January 2018|date=March 2020}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=August 2011}}
[[File:Federal debt to revenue ratio.webp|thumb|350px|Federal debt to revenue [[Financial ratio|ratio]] <br>The
[[File:National debt of the United States.webp|thumb|350px|{{center|'''National debt of the United States'''}}
{{legend|#FEE168|[[Intragovernmental holdings]]|outline=#FFD932}}
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{{U.S. deficit and debt topics|expanded=dimensions}}
[[File:Average Interest Rate on U.S. Federal Debt.webp|thumb|262px|Average interest rate on U.S.
The '''national debt of the United States''' is the total [[government debt|national debt]] owed by the [[federal government of the United States|federal government]] of the [[United States]] to [[United States Treasury security|Treasury security]] holders. The national debt at any point in time is the [[face value]] of the then-outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the [[United States Department of the Treasury|Treasury]] and other [[List of federal agencies in the United States|federal agencies]]. The terms "national deficit" and "national surplus" usually refer to the federal [[government budget balance]] from year to year, not the cumulative amount of [[debt]]. In a deficit year the national debt increases as the government needs to borrow funds to [[Deficit spending|finance the deficit]], while in a surplus year the debt decreases as more money is received than spent, enabling the government to [[Deficit reduction in the United States|reduce the debt]] by buying back some Treasury securities. In general, government debt increases as a result of [[Government spending in the United States|government spending]] and decreases from [[Taxation in the United States|tax]] or other receipts, both of which fluctuate during the course of a [[fiscal year]].<ref>{{cite web |title=Historical Tables – Table 1.2 – Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits (-) as Percentages of GDP: 1930–2017 |url=https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/hist.pdf|access-date=April 16, 2012 |publisher=[[Office of Management and Budget]] |df=mdy-all}}</ref> There are two components of gross national debt:<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.gao.gov/special.pubs/longterm/debt/debtbasics.html#largefeddebt |title=Federal debt basics – How large is the federal debt? |publisher=[[Government Accountability Office]] |access-date=April 28, 2012 |archive-date=July 6, 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110706055255/http://www.gao.gov/special.pubs/longterm/debt/debtbasics.html#largefeddebt |url-status=dead}}</ref>
* "Debt held by the public" – such as Treasury securities held by investors outside the federal government, including those held by individuals, [[corporation]]s, the [[Federal Reserve]], and foreign, [[State governments of the United States|state]] and [[Local government in the United States|local governments]].
* "Debt held by government accounts" or "[[intragovernmental debt]]" – is non-marketable Treasury securities held in accounts of programs administered by the federal government, such as the [[Social Security Trust Fund]]. Debt held by government accounts represents the cumulative surpluses, including interest earnings, of various government programs that have been invested in Treasury securities.
[[File:US Federal Debt Held By Public as of Feb. 2023.png|thumb|upright=1.2|The amount of U.S. public debt, measured as a percentage of GDP, held by the public since 1900]]
Historically, the U.S. public debt as a share of [[gross domestic product]] (GDP) increases during wars and [[recession]]s and then subsequently declines. The [[Debt-to-GDP ratio|ratio of debt to GDP]] may decrease as a result of a government surplus or via [[Economic growth|growth of GDP]] and [[inflation]]. The [[Congressional Budget Office]] (CBO) estimated in February 2024 that Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 99 percent of GDP in 2024 to 116 percent in 2034, and would continue to grow if current laws generally remained unchanged. Over that period, the growth of interest costs and mandatory spending outpaces the growth of revenues and the economy, driving up debt. Those factors persist beyond 2034, pushing federal debt higher still, to 172 percent of GDP in 2054.<ref name="CBO_budgetOutlook2024">{{cite web|url=https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59710|title=The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034|publisher=CBO|date=February 7, 2024|access-date=February 7, 2024}}</ref> In recent decades, aging [[Demographics of the United States|demographics]] and rising [[Health care prices in the United States|healthcare costs]] have led to concern about the long-term sustainability of the federal government's [[Fiscal policy of the United States|fiscal policies]].<ref>{{Cite web |date=2022-07-27 |title=The 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook |url=https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57971 |access-date=2022-09-30 |publisher=Congressional Budget Office |language=en}}</ref> The aggregate, gross amount that Treasury can borrow is limited by the [[United States debt ceiling]].<ref>About 0.8% of debt ($1009 billion) is not covered by the ceiling, per [https://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/105193.pdf The Debt Limit: History and Recent Increases, p. 4. (Note: This includes pre-1917 debt)], fpc.state.gov; accessed August 22, 2016.</ref>
Total US federal government debt breached $30 trillion mark for the first time in history in February 2022.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Rappeport |first=Alan |date=2022-02-01 |title=U.S. National Debt Tops $30 Trillion as Borrowing Surged Amid Pandemic |language=en-US |work=[[The New York Times]] |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/01/us/politics/national-debt-30-trillion.html |access-date=2022-02-02 |issn=0362-4331}}</ref> As of
During the [[COVID-19 pandemic in the United States|COVID-19 pandemic]], the [[U.S. federal government response to the COVID-19 pandemic|federal government spent trillions]] in virus aid and economic relief. The [[Congressional Budget Office
[[File:Debt to GDP.webp|thumb|350px|Debt to GDP
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{{legend|#EE220C|[[Federal government of the United States|Federal]] debt to GDP}}
]]
[[File:
==History==
{{Main|History of the United States public debt}}
The [[United States federal government]] has continuously had a fluctuating [[Government debt|public debt]] since its formation in 1789, except for about a year during 1835–1836, a period in which the nation, during the presidency of [[Andrew Jackson]], completely paid the national debt. To allow comparisons over the years, public debt is often expressed as a ratio to [[GDP]]. The United States public debt as a percentage of GDP reached its highest level during [[Harry S. Truman|Harry Truman]]'s first presidential term, during and after [[World War II]]. Public debt as a percentage of GDP fell rapidly in the [[Post–World War II economic expansion|post-World War II period]] and reached a low in 1974 under [[Richard Nixon]]. Debt as a share of GDP has consistently increased since then, except during the presidencies of [[Jimmy Carter]] and [[Bill Clinton]].
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The national debt can also be classified into marketable or non-marketable securities. Most of the marketable securities are [[United States Treasury security|Treasury notes, bills, and bonds]] held by investors and governments globally. The non-marketable securities are mainly the "government account series" owed to certain government trust funds such as the Social Security Trust Fund, which represented $2.82 trillion (~${{Format price|{{Inflation|index=US-GDP|value=2820000000000|start_year=2017}}}} in {{Inflation/year|US-GDP}}) in 2017.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2012/tr2012.pdf |title=The 2012 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds |website=Ssa.gov |access-date=2016-08-27}}</ref>
The non-marketable securities represent amounts owed to program beneficiaries. For example, in the cash upon receipt but spent for other purposes.{{sentence fragment|date=February 2023}} If the government continues to run deficits in other parts of the budget, the government will have to issue debt held by the public to fund the Social Security Trust Fund, in effect exchanging one type of debt for the other.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/index.html|title=Social Security Trust Fund 2010 Report Summary|publisher=Ssa.gov|access-date=May 18, 2011}}</ref>{{failed verification|reason=These assertions could not be located in the 268-page report.|date=February 2023}}{{dubious|reason=The "deficits" discussed in the source appear to be Social Security operating deficits, not federal budget deficits.|date=February 2023}} Other large intragovernmental holders include the Federal Housing Administration, the [[Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation|Federal Savings and Loan Corporation's]] Resolution Fund and the Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund (Medicare).{{citation needed|date=August 2016}}
===Accounting treatment===
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In other words, spending the "off budget" Social Security surplus adds to the total national debt (by increasing the intragovernmental debt) while the "off-budget" surplus reduces the "total" deficit reported in the media. Certain spending called "supplemental appropriations" is outside the budget process entirely but adds to the national debt. Funding for the [[Iraq War|Iraq]] and [[War in Afghanistan (2001–present)|Afghanistan]] wars was accounted for this way prior to the Obama administration.<ref name=Politifact_Suppl/> Certain stimulus measures and [[earmark (politics)|earmarks]] were also outside the budget process. The federal government publishes the total debt owed (public and intragovernmental holdings) daily.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Debt to the Penny |url=https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/ |access-date=2022-08-23 |website=U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data |language=en}}</ref>
== Holders of debt ==
[[File:Federal Government debt holders.webp|thumb|300px|Federal Government debt holders
{{legend|#929292|Domestic private investors}}
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===Foreign holdings===
[[File:Composition of U.S. Long-Term Treasury Debt 2000-2014.svg|thumb
[[File:MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES.webp|thumb|right|290px|Foreign holders of Treasury Securities <br> April 2021 - April 2022]]
As of October 2018, foreigners owned $6.2 trillion of U.S. debt, or approximately 39% of the debt held by the public of $16.1 trillion and 28% of the total debt of $21.8 trillion.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/mspd/2014/opds092014.pdf|title=Treasury Direct-Monthly Statement of the Public Debt Held by the U.S.|date=September 2014|access-date=November 30, 2014}}</ref> In December 2020, foreigners held 33% ($7 trillion out of $21.6 trillion) of publicly held US debt; of this $7 trillion, $4.1 trillion (59.2%) belonged to foreign governments and $2.8 trillion (40.8%) to foreign investors. Including both private and public debt holders, the top three December 2020 national holders of American public debt are [[Japan]] ($1.2 trillion or 17.7%), [[China]] ($1.1 trillion or 15.2%), and the [[United Kingdom]] ($0.4 trillion or 6.2%).<ref>{{cite report |author2=Jared C. Nagel |author1=Marc Labonte |date=July 9, 2021 |title=Foreign Holdings of Federal Debt |url=https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS22331.pdf |publisher=[[Congressional Research Service]] |page=ii |access-date=July 21, 2021}}</ref>
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According to [[Paul Krugman]], "America actually earns more from its assets abroad than it pays to foreign investors."<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinion/krugman-nobody-understands-debt.html?_r=1&ref=paulkrugman|work=[[The New York Times]]|title=Nobody Understands Debt|date=2012-01-01|access-date=2012-02-04|first1=Paul|last1=Krugman}}</ref> Nonetheless, the country's [[net international investment position]] represents a debt of more than $9 trillion.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/us-net-international-investment-position-third-quarter-2018|title=US Net International Investment Position from BEA|date=February 1, 2019|access-date=April 1, 2019}}</ref>
==
{{Further|United States federal budget}}
[[File:CBO Deficit - Baseline Comparison - April 2018.png|thumb|right|upright=1.35|Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline scenario comparisons: June 2017,{{citation needed|date=November 2020}} April 2018 (which reflects Trump's tax cuts and spending bills), and April 2018 alternate scenario (which assumes extension of the Trump tax cuts, among other current policy extensions)<ref name="CBO_BOE2018" />]]
===CBO ten-year outlook 2018–2028 (pre–COVID-19 pandemic)===
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* The $1.6 trillion debt increase includes three main elements:
*#$1.7 trillion less in revenues due to the tax cuts;
*#$1.0 trillion more in spending; and
*#Partially offsetting incremental revenue of $1.1 trillion due to higher economic growth than previously forecast.
* Debt held by the public is expected (Congressional Budget Office Outlook) to rise from 78% of GDP ($16 trillion) at the end of 2018 to 96% GDP ($29 trillion) by 2028. That would be the highest level since the end of World War II.{{citation needed|date=March 2020}}
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===CBO ten-year outlook 2020–2030 (during the COVID-19 pandemic)===
The CBO estimated that the budget deficit for fiscal year 2020 would increase to $3.3 trillion or 16% GDP, more than triple that of 2019 and the largest as % GDP since 1945, because of the impact of the [[COVID-19 pandemic in the United States|COVID-19 pandemic]]. CBO also forecast the debt held by the public would rise to 98% GDP in 2020, compared with 79% in 2019 and 35% in 2007 before the [[Great Recession]].<ref name="CBO_Aug2020" />
===CBO long-term outlook===
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The CBO reports its ''Long-Term Budget Outlook'' annually, providing at least two scenarios for spending, revenue, deficits, and debt. The 2019 Outlook mainly covers the 30-year period through 2049. The CBO reported:
<blockquote>Large budget deficits over the next 30 years are projected to drive federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels—from 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 144 percent by 2049. That projection incorporates CBO's central estimates of various factors, such as productivity growth and interest rates on federal debt. CBO's analysis indicates that even if values for those factors differed from the agency's projections, debt several decades from now would probably be much higher than it is today.<ref name="cbo2019LTO">[https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55331 CBO The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook], cbo.gov; accessed June 25, 2019.</ref></blockquote>
Furthermore, under alternative scenarios:
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<blockquote>If lawmakers changed current laws to maintain certain major policies now in place—most significantly, if they prevented a cut in discretionary spending in 2020 and an increase in individual income taxes in 2026—then debt held by the public would increase even more, reaching 219 percent of GDP by 2049. By contrast, if Social Security benefits were limited to the amounts payable from revenues received by the Social Security trust funds, debt in 2049 would reach 106 percent of GDP, still well above its current level.</blockquote>
Over the long-term, the CBO projects that interest expense and mandatory spending categories (e.g., Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security) will continue to grow relative to GDP, while discretionary categories (e.g., Defense and other Cabinet Departments) continue to fall relative to GDP. Debt is projected to continue rising relative to GDP under the above two scenarios, although the CBO did also offer other scenarios that involved austerity measures that would bring the debt to GDP ratio down.<ref name="cbo2019LTO" />
==Ways to reduce debt==
===Negative real interest rates===
Since 2010, the U.S. Treasury has been obtaining [[Real interest rate#Negative real interest rates|negative real interest rates]] on government debt, meaning the inflation rate is greater than the interest rate paid on the debt.<ref>Saint Louis Federal Reserve (2012) [http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DFII5 "5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity"] FRED Economic Data chart from government debt auctions (the x-axis at y=0 represents the inflation rate over the life of the security)</ref> Such low rates, outpaced by the [[Inflation|inflation rate]], occur when the market believes that there are no alternatives with sufficiently low risk, or when popular institutional investments such as insurance companies, [[pension]]s, or bond, money market, and balanced [[mutual fund]]s are required or choose to invest sufficiently large sums in Treasury securities to hedge against risk.<ref name="liquidation">Carmen M. Reinhart and M. Belen Sbrancia (March 2011) [http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/res2/pdf/crbs.pdf "The Liquidation of Government Debt"] National Bureau of Economic Research working paper No. 16893</ref><ref>David Wessel (August 8, 2012) [https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390444900304577577192417116440 "When Interest Rates Turn Upside Down"] ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]'' ([http://www.htisec.com/en/research/shownews.jsp?newsType=DJ&newsid=c-20120808DN019794 full text] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130120020448/http://www.htisec.com/en/research/shownews.jsp?newsType=DJ&newsid=c-20120808DN019794|date=January 20, 2013}})</ref> Economist [[Lawrence Summers]] states that at such low interest rates, government borrowing actually saves taxpayer money and improves creditworthiness.<ref>Lawrence Summers (June 3, 2012) [https://web.archive.org/web/20120605042224/http://blogs.reuters.com/lawrencesummers/2012/06/03/breaking-the-negative-feedback-loop/ "Breaking the negative feedback loop"] ''Reuters''</ref>
In the late 1940s through the early 1970s, the U.S. and UK both reduced their debt burden by about 30% to 40% of GDP per decade by taking advantage of negative real interest rates, but there is no guarantee that government debt rates will continue to stay this low.<ref name="liquidation" /><ref>William H. Gross (May 2, 2011) [http://www.pimco.com/EN/insights/pages/the-caine-mutiny-part-2.aspx "The Caine Mutiny (Part 2)"] ''PIMCO Investment Outlook''</ref> Between 1946 and 1974, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 121% to 32% even though there were surpluses in only eight of those years which were much smaller than the deficits.<ref>[https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/02/why-the-us-government-never-ever-has-to-pay-back-all-its-debt/272747 "Why the U.S. Government Never, Ever Has to Pay Back All Its Debt"], ''[[The Atlantic]]'', February 1, 2013.</ref>
=== Raising reserve requirements and full reserve banking ===
Two economists, Jaromir Benes and Michael Kumhof, working for the [[International Monetary Fund]], published a working paper called ''[[Chicago plan|The Chicago Plan Revisited]]'' suggesting that the debt could be eliminated by raising bank [[reserve requirement]]s and converting from [[fractional-reserve banking]] to [[full-reserve banking]].<ref>Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (October 21, 2012) [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/9623863/IMFs-epic-plan-to-conjure-away-debt-and-dethrone-bankers.html "IMF's epic plan to conjure away debt and dethrone bankers"] ''[[The Daily Telegraph|The Telegraph]]''</ref><ref>Jaromir Benes and Michael Kumhof (August 2012) [http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12202.pdf "The Chicago Plan Revisited"], International Monetary Fund working paper WP/12/202; accessed November 6, 2016.</ref> Economists at the [[Paris School of Economics]] have commented on the plan, stating that it is already the ''status quo'' for coinage currency,<ref>[http://hal.cirad.fr/docs/00/74/79/04/PDF/12064.pdf "Debt-Deflation versus the Liquidity Trap: the Dilemma of Nonconventional Monetary Policy"] ''CNRS, CES, Paris School of Economics, ESCP-Europe'', October 23, 2012</ref> and a [[Norges Bank]] economist has examined the proposal in the context of considering the [[Financial services|finance industry]] as part of the [[real economy]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1009&context=thorvaldgrung_moe|title="Credit and debt in Economic Theory: Which Way forward?" ''Economics of Credit and Debt workshop'', November 2012}}</ref> A [[Centre for Economic Policy Research]] paper agrees with the conclusion that "no real liability is created by new [[fiat money]] creation and therefore public debt does not rise as a result."<ref>[http://www.cepr.org/pubs/PolicyInsights/PolicyInsight62.pdf "The economic crisis: How to stimulate economies without increasing public debt"] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120916093844/http://www.cepr.org/pubs/PolicyInsights/PolicyInsight62.pdf|date=September 16, 2012}}, Centre for Economic Policy Research, August 2012.</ref>
==Risks and debates==
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* An increased risk of a sudden fiscal crisis, in which investors demand higher interest rates.<ref name="Huntley, Jonathan 2010">Huntley, Jonathan (July 27, 2010). [http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=11659 "Federal debt and the risk of a fiscal crisis"]. Congressional Budget Office: Macroeconomic Analysis Division; retrieved February 2, 2011.</ref>
===Credit default===
The U.S. has never fully defaulted.<ref name="cnbc">{{cite news |last=Carney |first=John |title=Has the United States Ever Defaulted on Its Debt? |newspaper=[[CNBC]] |url=https://www.cnbc.com/id/43140915/Has_the_United_States_Ever_Defaulted_on_Its_Debt |access-date=January 18, 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Comstock |first=Courtney |title=10 Things You Need To Know About The Debt Ceiling |newspaper=The Fiscal Times |url=http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/07/04/10-Things-You-Need-To-Know-About-The-Debt-Ceiling.aspx#page1 |access-date=January 18, 2013}}</ref> In April 1979, however, the U.S. may have technically defaulted on $122 million (~${{Format price|{{Inflation|index=US-GDP|value=122000000|start_year=1979}}}} in {{Inflation/year|US-GDP}}) in [[United States Treasury security|Treasury bills]], which was less than 1% of U.S. debt. The Treasury Department characterized it as a delay rather than as a default, but it did have consequences for short-term interest rates, which jumped 0.6%.<ref name="WSJ">{{cite news |last=Zweig |first=Jason |title=Own Government Bonds? Here's Why You Should Be Worried |newspaper=[[The Wall Street Journal]] |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704083904576335420994526968?mod=WSJ_PersonalFinance_PF2 |access-date=January 18, 2013}}</ref> Others view it as a temporary, partial default.<ref>{{cite news |last=Marron |first=Donald |title=The Day the United States Defaulted on Treasury Bills |url=http://dmarron.com/2011/05/26/the-day-the-united-states-defaulted-on-treasury-bills |access-date=January 18, 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=O'brien |first=Matthew |title=Here's What Happened the Last Time the U.S. Defaulted on Its Debt |newspaper=[[The Atlantic]] |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/01/heres-what-happened-the-last-time-the-us-defaulted-on-its-debt/267205 |access-date=January 18, 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Siegel |first=Robert |title=When Did The U.S. Last Default On Treasury Bonds? |newspaper=[[NPR]] |url=https://www.npr.org/2011/07/11/137773341/looking-at-when-the-u-s-last-defaulted-on-treasury-bonds |access-date=January 18, 2013}}</ref>
=== Debt ceiling ===
{{Main|United States debt ceiling}}
The United States debt ceiling is a legislative constraint on the amount of national debt that can be incurred by the [[U.S. Treasury]]. It limits how much money the federal government may pay on the debt it already has by borrowing even more money. The debt ceiling applies to almost all federal debt, including accounts owned by the public and intra-government funds for [[Medicare (United States)|Medicare]] and [[Social Security (United States)|Social Security]].<ref name="fpc">[http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL31967.pdf The Debt Limit: History and Recent Increases, October 2013], p 4.</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2023-05-05 |title=Q&A: Everything You Should Know About the Debt Ceiling {{!}} Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget |url=https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling |access-date=2023-06-01 |website=www.crfb.org |language=en}}</ref>
=== Sustainability ===
In 2009 the [[Government Accountability Office]] (GAO) reported that the United States was on a "fiscally unsustainable" path because of projected future increases in Medicare and Social Security spending.<ref name="GAOCitiz">Congress of the United States, Government Accountability Office (February 13, 2009). [http://www.gao.gov/financial/citizensguide2008.pdf "The federal government's financial health: a citizen's guide to the 2008 financial report of the United States government", pp. 7–8], gao.gov; retrieved February 1, 2011.</ref> According to the Treasury report in October 2018, summarized by ''[[Business Insider]]'''s Bob Bryan, the U.S. federal budget deficit rose as a result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017<ref name="WSJ_Davidson_2018_1T" /> signed into law by President [[Donald Trump]] on December 22, 2017<ref name="Fortune">{{cite news|last1=Pullen|first1=John Patrick|title=Here's When the GOP Tax Reform Bill Will Take Effect|url=http://fortune.com/2017/12/20/gop-tax-bill-cuts-start/|access-date=December 23, 2017|work=[[Fortune (magazine)|Fortune]]|date=December 20, 2017}}</ref> and the [[Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2018]] signed into law on March 23, 2018.<ref name="WaPo_Werner_2018">{{cite news |last1=Werner |first1=Erica |last2=DeBonis |first2=Mike |date=March 22, 2018 |access-date=October 30, 2018 |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/house-prepares-for-rapid-vote-today-on-jam-packed-13-trillion-spending-deal/2018/03/22/2074fe7e-2dd6-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html |title=House approves jam-packed $1.3 trillion spending bill |newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]|issn=0190-8286}}</ref><ref name="businessinsider_Bryan_2018_779B">{{cite news |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/us-budget-deficit-779-billion-highest-since-2012-2018-10 |access-date=October 30, 2018 |title=The US budget deficit ballooned to $779 billion this year, the highest since 2012, driven by Trump's tax law and the massive budget deal |first=Bob |last=Bryan |date=October 15, 2018 |publisher=[[Business Insider]]}}</ref>
===Risks to economic growth===
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]]
[[File:U.S. Federal Net Interest as Pct GDP.png|thumb|right|upright=1.35|Interest to GDP, a measure of debt burden, was very low in 2015 but is projected to rise with both interest rates and debt levels over the 2016–2026 period.]]
[[File:2023 Interest
Interest expense on the public debt was approximately $678 billion in FY2023. During FY2023, the government also accrued a non-cash interest expense of $197 billion for intra-governmental debt, primarily the Social Security Trust Fund, for a total interest expense of $875 billion. This accrued interest is added to the Social Security Trust Fund and therefore the national debt each year and will be paid to Social Security recipients in the future. However, since it is a non-cash expense it is excluded from the budget deficit calculation.<ref name="GAO 2023 Report">{{cite web |url=https://www.gao.gov/assets/d24106340.pdff |title=GAO FINANCIAL AUDIT Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2023 and FY 2022 Schedules of Federal Debt |page=18 |date=November 2023 |access-date=2024-01-25 }}</ref>
The federal debt at the end of the 2018/19 fiscal year (ended September 30, 2019) was $22.7 trillion (~${{Format price|{{Inflation|index=US-GDP|value=22700000000000|start_year=2018}}}} in {{Inflation/year|US-GDP}}). The portion that is held by the public was $16.8 trillion. Neither figure includes approximately $2.5 trillion owed to the government.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-20-117|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2019 and FY 2018 Schedules of Federal Debt|first=U. S. Government Accountability|last=Office|website=www.gao.gov}}</ref> Interest on the debt was $404 billion.<ref>https://www.gao.gov/assets/710/702591.pdf, https://www.gao.gov/assets/710/704983.pdf</ref>
The cost of servicing the U.S. national debt can be measured in various ways. The CBO analyzes net interest as a percentage of GDP, with a higher percentage indicating a higher interest payment burden. During 2015, this was 1.3% GDP, close to the record low 1.2% of the 1966–1968 era. The average from 1966 to 2015 was 2.0% of GDP.<ref>[https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51384 CBO-Updated Budget Projections 2016–2026], cbo.gov; retrieved May 11, 2016.</ref> However, the CBO estimated in 2016 that the interest amounts and % GDP will increase significantly over the following decade as both interest rates and debt levels rise: "Interest payments on that debt represent a large and rapidly growing expense of the federal government. CBO's baseline shows net interest payments more than tripling under current law, climbing from $231 billion in 2014, or 1.3% of GDP, to $799 billion in 2024, or 3.0% of GDP—the highest ratio since 1996."<ref>[https://www.cbo.gov/publication/45684 CBO-Projection of Federal Interest Payments], cbo.gov, September 3, 2014.</ref>
According to a study by the [[Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget]] (CRFB), the U.S. government will spend more on servicing their debts than they do for their national defense budget by 2024.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Swanson|first=Ian|date=2018-03-15|title=US could spend more on servicing debt than defense by 2024: study|url=https://thehill.com/policy/finance/378607-us-could-spend-more-on-servicing-debt-than-defense-by-2024-study|access-date=2021-09-09|website=[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]|language=en}}</ref>
In October 2023, yields for 10-year [[United States Treasury security#Treasury note|Treasury notes]] breached 5% as traders adjusted their assessment of United States' fiscal position and lowered their expectation that Congress or the White House would take any action to improve it. The impact was felt by homebuyers, with 30-year mortgage rate at its highest in two decades, and corporations facing higher costs of borrowing. Interests paid by the federal government jumped by $184 billion during the 2022 fiscal year and are still climbing.<ref>{{Cite news |date=2023-10-23 |title=Why Bond Yields Are Sending a Warning Signal to Washington |language=en |work=Bloomberg.com |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-10-23/with-us-debt-piling-up-bond-market-is-sending-a-warning-signal |access-date=2023-10-26}}</ref>
==== Recent US debt service/interest statistics ====
{| class="wikitable sortable"
!FY
![[Government Accountability Office|GAO]]: (Total) Debt Service (in billion dollars)
![[Federal Reserve Economic Data|FRED]]: (Total) Debt Service (in billion dollars)[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ViPH]
![[Government Accountability Office|GAO]]: (Publicly-held) Debt Service (in billion dollars)
![[Federal Reserve Economic Data|FRED]]: Fed Receipts (in billion dollars)[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ViPI]
![[Federal Reserve Economic Data|FRED]]: Debt Service/Receipts
|-
|2023
|875.5<ref name=gao23>{{Cite web|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2023 and FY 2022 Schedules of Federal Debt|url=https://www.gao.gov/assets/d24106340.pdf|access-date=2024-01-20|website=[[Government Accountability Office]]|language=en|date=2023-11-09}}</ref>
|981<ref name=fred23>{{cite web|url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=53&eid=5272&od=2023-07-01#|title=Table 3.2. Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures|access-date=2024-04-15|website=[[Federal Reserve Economic Data|FRED]]|date=2023}}</ref>
|678<ref name=gao23/>
|4439
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*981/4439}} |0}}%
|-
|2022
|723.6<ref name=gao23/>
|829.6
|496.5<ref name=gao23/>
|4896
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*829.6/4896}} |0}}%
|-
|2021
|575<ref name=gao22>{{Cite web|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2022 and FY 2021 Schedules of Federal Debt|url=https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105586|access-date=2024-01-20|website=[[Government Accountability Office]]|language=en|date=2022-11-09}}</ref>
|612
|392<ref name=gao21>{{Cite web|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2021 and FY 2020 Schedules of Federal Debt|url=https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-22-104592.pdf|access-date=2024-01-20|website=[[Government Accountability Office]]|language=en|date=2021-11-09}}</ref>
|4047
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*612/4047}} |0}}%
|-
|2020
|527<ref name=gao21/>
|517.7
|371<ref name=gao21/><ref name=gao20>{{cite web|url=https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-124|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2020 and FY 2019 Schedules of Federal Debt|access-date=2024-01-20|website=[[Government Accountability Office]]|language=en|date=2020-11-09}}</ref>
|3421
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*517.7/3421}} |0}}%
|-
|2019
|574<ref name=gao20/>
|564.5
|404<ref name=gao20/>
|3463
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*564.5/3463}} |0}}%
|-
|2018
|528.4<ref name=gao18>{{cite web|url=https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-19-113.pdf|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2018 and FY 2017 Schedules of Federal Debt|access-date=2024-01-20|website=[[Government Accountability Office]]|language=en|date=2019-11-09}}</ref>
|571
|357<ref name=gao18/>
|3330
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*571/3330}} |0}}%
|-
|2017
|456.7<ref name=gao18/>
|493
|296<ref name=gao18/>
|3316
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*493/3316}} |0}}%
|-
|2016
|430<ref name=gao16>{{cite web|url=https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-17-104.pdf|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2016 and FY 2015 Schedules of Federal Debt|access-date=2024-01-20|website=[[Government Accountability Office]]|language=en|date=2017-11-09}}</ref>
|460
|273<ref name=gao16/>
|3268
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*460/3268}} |0}}%
|-
|2015
|407<ref name=gao16/>
|434.7
|251<ref name=gao16/>
|3250
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*434.7/3250}} |0}}%
|-
|2014
|433<ref name=gao14>{{cite web|url=https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-15-157.pdf|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2014 and FY 2013 Schedules of Federal Debt|access-date=2024-01-20|website=[[Government Accountability Office]]|language=en|date=2015-11-09}}</ref>
|442
|260<ref name=gao14/>
|3021
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*442/3021}} |0}}%
|-
|2013
|425<ref name=gao14/>
|425
|247.6<ref name=gao14/>
|2775
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*425/2775}} |0}}%
|-
|2012
|432<ref name=gao12>{{cite web|url=https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-13-114.pdf|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2012 and FY 2011 Schedules of Federal Debt|access-date=2024-01-20|website=[[Government Accountability Office]]|language=en|date=2013-11-09}}</ref>
|417
|245.4<ref name=gao12/>
|2450
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*417/2450}} |0}}%
|-
|2011
|453.6<ref name=gao12/>
|433
|250.9<ref name=gao12/>
|2303
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*433/2303}} |0}}%
|-
|2010
|413<ref name=gao10>{{cite web|url=https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-11-52.pdf|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2010 and FY 2009 Schedules of Federal Debt|access-date=2024-01-20|website=[[Government Accountability Office]]|language=en|date=2011-11-09}}</ref>
|399.5
|215<ref name=gao10/>
|2162.7
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*399.5/2162.7}} |0}}%
|-
|2009
|380.7<ref name=gao10/>
|353.8
|189<ref name=gao10/>
|2105
|{{Round| {{#expr:100*353.8/2105}} |0}}%
|}
===Chinese holdings of U.S. debt===
According to a 2013 [[Forbes]] article, many American and other [[Financial analyst|economic analysts]] have expressed concerns on the amount of United States government debt the People's Republic of China is holding as part of their reserves.<ref>[https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/01/23/is-chinas-ownership-of-u-s-debt-a-national-security-threat/#41479958afa3 "Is China's Ownership Of U.S. Debt A National Security Threat?"] by Kenneth Rapoza, ''[[Forbes]]'', 23 January 2013</ref><ref name="cnn">"... Should Americans be concerned that China has started dumping some of its Treasury holdings? After all, it raises serious questions about whether China will keep lending Washington money to help finance the federal deficit in the future.": From [https://money.cnn.com/2015/09/10/investing/china-dumping-us-debt "China is dumping U.S. debt"], CNN.com, September 11, 2015.</ref> The [[National Defense Authorization Act]] of FY2012 included a provision requiring the [[United States Secretary of Defense|Secretary of Defense]] to conduct a "national security risk assessment of U.S. federal debt held by China." The department issued its report in July 2012, stating that "attempting to use U.S. Treasury securities as a coercive tool would have limited effect and likely would do more harm to China than to the United States.” {{citation needed|date=April 2024}} An August 19, 2013 [[Congressional Research Service]] report said that the threat is not credible and the effect would be limited even if carried out. The report said that the threat would not offer "China deterrence options, whether in the diplomatic, military, or economic realms, and this would remain true both in peacetime and in scenarios of crisis or war."<ref name="labonte">[https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34314.pdf Report] on "China's Holdings of U.S. Securities: Implications for the U.S. Economy" by Wayne M. Morrison & Marc Labonte, [[Congressional Research Service]], 19 August 2013</ref>
A 2010 article by [[James K. Galbraith]] in ''[[The Nation]]'', defends deficits and dismisses concerns over foreign holdings of United States government debt denominated in U.S. dollars, including China's holdings.<ref name="james">: "... What about indebtedness to foreigners? ... To acquire [U.S. gov't bonds], China must export goods to us, not offset by equivalent imports. That is a cost to China. It's a cost [[Government of China|Beijing]] is prepared to pay, for its own reasons: export industries promote learning, technology transfer and product quality improvement, and they provide jobs to migrants from the countryside. But that's China's business. For China, the bonds themselves are a sterile [[hoard]]. There is almost nothing that Beijing can do with them; ... its stock of T-bonds will just go on growing. And we will pay interest on it, not with real effort but by typing numbers into computers. There is no burden associated with this; not now and not later." From [http://www.thenation.com/article/defense-deficits/ "In Defense of Deficits"] by [[James K. Galbraith]], ''[[The Nation]]'', March 4, 2010.</ref> In 2010, [[Warren Mosler]], wrote that "When[ever] the Chinese redeem those T-securities, the money is transferred back to China's checking account at the Fed. During the entire purchase and redemption process, the dollars never leave the Fed."<ref name="mosler">"... The Chinese buy U.S. T-securities by transferring U.S. dollars (not yuan) from their checking account at the Federal Reserve Bank to China's T-security account, also at the Federal Reserve Bank. When[ever] the Chinese redeem those T-securities, the money is transferred back to China's checking account at the Fed. During the entire purchase and redemption process, the dollars never leave the Fed." [http://moslereconomics.com/2010/09/23/what-policies-for-global-prosperity/ "What Policies for Global Prosperity?"] by [[Warren Mosler]], September 23, 2010.</ref> Australian economist [[Bill Mitchell (economist)|Bill Mitchell]] argued that the United States government had a "nearly infinite capacity...to spend."<ref name="mitchell">[[Bill Mitchell (economist)|Mitchell, Bill]], [[University of Newcastle (Australia)]]. [http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=18813 "The nearly infinite capacity of the US government to spend"] (March 28, 2012); [http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=25161 "The US government can buy as much of its own debt as it chooses"] (August 27, 2013)</ref> Against the backdrop of escalating Sino-U.S. tensions in 2020, Yuzo Sakai, a manager at Ueda Totan Forex Ltd., said that if China undertakes a massive sales of U.S. bonds, investors may flock to the [[Japanese yen]] as a safe-haven currency. Since 2018, China had been gradually decreasing its holdings of U.S. federal debt, bringing the total to $1.07 trillion in June 2020, behind Japan who became the biggest foreign creditor of the United States. Stephen Nagy, a professor at the [[International Christian University]], said a sell-off by China "might damage the United States in the short term" but also cause "critical economic instability" in the Chinese and global economy. [[Jeff Kingston]], a professor and director of Asian Studies at [[Temple University, Japan Campus|Temple University, Japan]], echoed the view, adding that dumping would lower the price of U.S. bonds, making it more attractive to other countries. According to an [[institutional investor]], however, it may be difficult for Japan to boost its already large holdings of U.S. government debt, as such a move could be seen as "currency manipulation".<ref>{{Cite web |last=Tachikawa |first=Tomoyuki |date=Aug 20, 2020 |title=Fears grow over China's possible massive sales of U.S. debt as weapon |url=https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/08/fb165250518a-focus-fears-grow-over-chinas-possible-massive-sales-of-us-debt-as-weapon.html |website=Kyodo News+}}</ref>
===Definition of public debt===
Economists also debate the definition of public debt. Krugman argued in May 2010 that the debt held by the public is the right measure to use, while Reinhart has testified to the President's Fiscal Reform Commission that gross debt is the appropriate measure.<ref name="krugman.blogs.nytimes.com" /> The [[Center on Budget and Policy Priorities]] (CBPP) cited research by several economists supporting the use of the lower debt held by the public figure as a more accurate measure of the debt burden, disagreeing with these Commission members.<ref name="cbpp.org">Horney, James R. (May 27, 2010). [http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3197 "Recommendation that president's fiscal commission focus on gross debt is misguided"], Center on Budget and Policy Priorities [website]; retrieved February 9, 2011.</ref>
There is debate regarding the economic nature of the intragovernmental debt, which was approximately $4.6 trillion in February 2011.<ref>United States Treasury, Bureau of the Public Debt (April 30, 2010). [http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/mspd/2010/opds042010.pdf "Monthly statement of public debt of the United States"], TreasuryDirect; retrieved February 9, 2011.</ref> For example, the CBPP argues: that "large increases in [debt held by the public] can also push up interest rates and increase the amount of future interest payments the federal government must make to lenders outside of the United States, which reduces Americans' income. By contrast, intragovernmental debt (the other component of the gross debt) has no such effects because it is simply money the federal government owes (and pays interest on) to itself."<ref name="cbpp.org" /> However, if the U.S. government continues to run "on budget" deficits as projected by the CBO and OMB for the foreseeable future, it will have to issue marketable Treasury bills and bonds (i.e., debt held by the public) to pay for the projected shortfall in the Social Security program. This will result in "debt held by the public" replacing "intragovernmental debt".<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/115xx/doc11580/07-01-SSOptions_forWeb.pdf|title=CBO-Social Security Policy Options-July 2010|access-date=May 18, 2011}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424053111903480904576510660976229354|title=A Short Primer on the National Debt|first=John Steele|last=Gordon|author-link=John Steele Gordon|newspaper=[[The Wall Street Journal]]|date=August 29, 2011|access-date=2016-08-27}}</ref>
===Intergenerational equity===
Line 208 ⟶ 328:
* For every dollar of debt held by the public, there is a government obligation (generally marketable Treasury securities) counted as an asset by investors. Future generations benefit to the extent these assets are passed on to them.<ref name="ReferenceA">{{cite web|url=https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/debt-is-mostly-money-we-owe-to-ourselves/|title=Debt Is (Mostly) Money We Owe to Ourselves|website=Krugman.blogs.nytimes.com|date=December 28, 2011 |access-date=2016-08-27}}</ref>
* As of 2010, approximately 72% of the financial assets were held by the wealthiest 5% of the population.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www2.ucsc.edu/whorulesamerica/power/wealth.html|title=Who Rules America: Wealth, Income, and Power|website=Ucsc.edu|access-date=2016-08-27}}</ref> This presents a wealth and income distribution question, as only a fraction of the people in future generations will receive principal or interest from investments related to the debt incurred today.
* To the extent the U.S. debt is owed to foreign investors (approximately half the "debt held by the public" during 2012), principal and interest are not directly received by U.S. heirs.<ref name="ReferenceA" />
* Higher debt levels imply higher interest payments, which create costs for future taxpayers (e.g., higher taxes, lower government benefits, higher inflation, or increased risk of fiscal crisis).<ref name="Huntley, Jonathan 2010" />
* To the extent the borrowed funds are invested today to improve the long-term productivity of the economy and its workers, such as via useful infrastructure projects or education, future generations may benefit.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/david-brooks-is-projecting-his-self-indulgence-again|title=David Brooks Is Projecting His Self Indulgence Again|first=Dean|last=Baker|publisher=cepr.net|access-date=September 23, 2016}}</ref>
* For every dollar of intragovernmental debt, there is an obligation to specific program recipients, generally non-marketable securities such as those held in the Social Security Trust Fund. Adjustments that reduce future deficits in these programs may also apply costs to future generations, via higher taxes or lower program spending.{{citation needed|date=September 2016}}
Line 215 ⟶ 335:
Krugman wrote in March 2013 that by neglecting public investment and failing to create jobs, we are doing far more harm to future generations than merely passing along debt: "Fiscal policy is, indeed, a moral issue, and we should be ashamed of what we're doing to the next generation's economic prospects. But our sin involves investing too little, not borrowing too much." Young workers face high unemployment and studies have shown their income may lag throughout their careers as a result. Teacher jobs have been cut, which could affect the quality of education and competitiveness of younger Americans.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/29/opinion/krugman-cheating-our-children.html|title=Cheating Our Children|date=March 29, 2013|work=[[The New York Times]]}}</ref>
==COVID-19 pandemic and aftermath==
The [[COVID-19 pandemic in the United States]] impacted the economy significantly beginning in March 2020, as businesses were shut-down and furloughed or fired personnel. About 16 million persons filed for [[Unemployment benefits|unemployment insurance]] in the three weeks ending April 9. It caused the number of unemployed persons to increase significantly, which is expected to reduce tax revenues while increasing [[automatic stabilizer]] spending for unemployment insurance and [[Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program|nutritional support]]. As a result of the adverse economic impact, both state and federal budget deficits will dramatically increase, even before considering any new legislation.<ref>{{Cite news |last1=Cohen |first1=Patricia |last2=Hsu |first2=Tiffany |date=April 9, 2020 |title='Sudden Black Hole' for the Economy With Millions More Unemployed |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/economy/unemployment-claim-numbers-coronavirus.html}}</ref>
To help address lost income for millions of workers and assist businesses, Congress and President Trump enacted the [[CARES Act|Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act]] (CARES Act) on March 27, 2020. It included loans and grants for businesses, along with direct payments to individuals and additional funding for unemployment insurance.
CBO provided a preliminary score for the CARES Act on April 16, 2020, estimating that it would increase federal deficits by about $1.8 trillion over the 2020-2030 period. The estimate includes:
Line 228 ⟶ 345:
*A $326 billion increase in discretionary outlays, stemming from emergency supplemental appropriations.
CBO reported that not all parts of the bill will increase deficits: “Although the act provides financial assistance totaling more than $2 trillion, the projected cost is less than that because some of that assistance is in the form of loan guarantees, which are not estimated to have a net effect on the budget. In particular, the act authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to provide up to $454 billion to fund emergency lending facilities established by the [[Federal Reserve Board of Governors|Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System]]. Because the income and costs stemming from that lending are expected to roughly offset each other, CBO estimates no deficit effect from that provision.”<ref name="CBO_Score1">{{Cite web |
The [[Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget]] estimated that the budget deficit for fiscal year 2020 would increase to a record $3.8 trillion (~${{Format price|{{Inflation|index=US-GDP|value=3800000000000|start_year=2020}}}} in {{Inflation/year|US-GDP}}), or 18.7% GDP.<ref name
[[President Biden]] also allocated significant amounts of money towards relief of the [[COVID-19 pandemic]]. According to a May 2021 report, Biden has or plans to spend $5.72 (~${{Format price|{{Inflation|index=US-GDP|value=5720000000000|start_year=2021}}}} in {{Inflation/year|US-GDP}}) trillion dollars toward this effort and others such as climate change including providing stimulus checks and serving schools and low-income children.<ref>{{cite news |last=Tankersley |first=Jim |date=April 9, 2021 |title=Biden's Budget Includes $1.52 Trillion in Federal Spending |work=[[The New York Times]] |url=https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/04/09/us/biden-news-today}}</ref> Many economists have agreed that this unprecedented level of spending from the [[Presidency of Joe Biden|Biden Administration]] has, in part, contributed to the [[2021–2023 inflation surge|inflation surge from 2021 to 2023]] as a result of increasing the money supply in the economy.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Morgan |first=David |date=2021-11-01 |title=Explainer: Republicans blame Biden for inflation, but are they right? |language=en |work=[[Reuters]] |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republicans-blame-biden-inflation-are-they-right-2021-11-01/ |access-date=2022-03-24}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Tolliver |first=Sandy |date=2022-02-25 |title=Runaway inflation discredits Democrats' fiscal and monetary policy |url=https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/595019-runaway-inflation-discredits-democrats-fiscal-and-monetary-policy |access-date=2022-03-24 |website=[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]] |language=en}}</ref>
==Appendix==
Line 321 ⟶ 437:
|-
!2015
|align="right"|<sup>a14</sup> 18,138||align="right"|<sup>a</sup> 100.3%||align="right"|<ref name="gao2019"/> 13,124||align="right"| ||align="right"|18,100
|-
!2016
|style="border-bottom:1px solid black"; align="right"|<sup>a15</sup> 19,560||style="border-bottom:1px solid black"; align="right"|<sup>a</sup>105.5%||style="border-bottom:1px solid black"; align="right"|<ref name="gao2019"/> 14,173||style="border-bottom:1px solid black"; align="right"| ||style="border-bottom:1px solid black"; align="right"|18,550
|-
!2017
|align="right"|<sup>a16</sup> 20,233|| align="right" |<sup>a</sup>105.1% ||align="right"|<ref name="gao2019"/> 14,673 ||align="right"| ||align="right"|19,250
|-
!2018
|align="right"|<sup>a17</sup> 21,506||align="right"|<sup>a</sup>106.0% ||align="right"|<ref name="gao2019"/> 15,761||align="right"| ||align="right"|20,300
|-
!2019
|align="right"|<sup>a18</sup> 22,711||align="right"|<sup>a</sup>107.4% ||align="right"|<ref name="gao2019"/> 16,809||align="right"| ||align="right"|21,150
|-
!2020
Line 396 ⟶ 512:
===Interest paid===
According to federal government data, interest payment on debt has crossed above one trillion on October 1, 2023.<ref>[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=172rZ FRED economic data]</ref><br>
Note that this is all interest the U.S. paid, including interest credited to Social Security and other government trust funds, not just "interest on debt" frequently cited elsewhere.
[[File:Federal interest payments 2023.webp|thumb|350px|Federal interest payments <br> Quarterly data annualized]]
Line 466 ⟶ 583:
===Foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities===
{{main|United States Treasury security#International}}
The following is a list of the top foreign holders <!--(
{| class=wikitable
! colspan=3|{{nowrap|Leading foreign holders of
|-
! Country or region!!{{center|Billions of<br/>dollars (est.)}}!!{{center|% change since<br/>
|-
| {{JPN}} || {{center|1,
|-
| {{CHN}} || {{center|
|-
| {{GBR}} || {{center|
|-
| {{LUX}} || {{center|
|-
| {{
|-
| {{CYM}} || {{center|
|-
| {{
|-
| {{IRL}} || {{center|
|-
| {{
|-
| {{
|-
| {{
|-
| {{
|-
| {{BRA}} || {{center|223.
|-
| {{HKG}} || {{center|
|-
| {{SGP}} || {{center|
|-
| '''other''' || {{center|
|-
! {{left|Total}} || {{center|
|}
Line 572 ⟶ 689:
|}
Sources: [[Eurostat]],<ref>[http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tps00001 Eurostat – Tables, Graphs and Maps Interface (TGM) table] Retrieved April 26, 2018</ref> [[International Monetary Fund]], ''World Economic Outlook'' (emerging market economies); [[Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development]], ''Economic Outlook'' (advanced economies),<ref>Cecchetti, Stephen G. et al. (March 2010). [http://www.bis.org/publ/work300.pdf "The future of public debt: prospects and implications"], p. 3. [[Bank for International Settlements]] [website]; retrieved July 4, 2011.</ref> [[IMF]]
'''<sup>1</sup>'''China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand
Line 681 ⟶ 798:
* [[Financial position of the United States]]
* [[List of countries by public debt]]
* [[Sovereign default]]
* [[Troubled Asset Relief Program]]
| |||