Content deleted Content added
m Reverted 1 edit by Hreðerwine (talk) to last revision by McSly |
Hreðerwine (talk | contribs) Undid revision 1218052237 by Drmies (talk) |
||
Line 1:
{{short description|Increase in the number of individuals in a population}}
[[File:Absolute increase in global population per year, OWID.svg|thumb|upright=1.3|Absolute increase in global human population per year<ref>{{cite web |title=Absolute increase in global population per year |url=https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-increase-global-population |website=Our World in Data |access-date=15 February 2020 |archive-date=28 February 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210228152809/https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/absolute-increase-global-population |url-status=dead }}</ref>]]
'''Population growth''' is the increase in the number of people in a [[population]] or dispersed group. Actual global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year.<ref>{{Cite web |year=2017 |title=World Population Prospects 2017 – Data Booklet (ST/ESA/SER.A/401) |url=https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un_2017_world_population_prospects-2017_revision_databooklet.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220307190343/https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un_2017_world_population_prospects-2017_revision_databooklet.pdf |archive-date=7 March 2022 |access-date=13 April 2022 |publisher=[[United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs]] |page=3}}</ref> The [[World population|global population]] has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.9 billion in 2020.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://worldometers.info/world-population |title=World Population 2017|access-date=1 April 2020}}</ref> The UN projected population to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.<ref>{{Cite web |title=World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision: Key Findings and Advance Tables |url=https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2017_KeyFindings.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190626225001/https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2017_KeyFindings.pdf |archive-date=26 June 2019 |access-date=5 January 2019 |publisher=[[United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division]] |page=2}}</ref> However, some academics outside the UN have increasingly [[Projections of population growth|developed human population models]] that account for additional downward pressures on population growth; in such a scenario population would peak before 2100.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Roser|first=Max|date=9 May 2013|title=Future Population Growth|url=https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth|journal=[[Our World in Data]]}}</ref> Others have challenged many recent population projections as having underestimated population growth.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=O'Sullivan|first1=Jane Nancy |date=2023 |title=Demographic Delusions: World Population Growth Is Exceeding Most Projections and Jeopardising Scenarios for Sustainable Futures|url= |journal=World |volume=4 |issue=3 |pages=545–568|doi=10.3390/world4030034|access-date= |doi-access=free }}</ref> In fact, even the U.N. public facing website (http://population.un.org) mentions only fertility and life expectancy as the primary drivers, while omitting the critical factor of generational time, which is at least as significant as mortality. For example comparing an average age of parents at time of giving birth of 30 to 20 with a life expectancy of 60 affects the population multiplicatively (3 generations corresponding to 20 versus 2 generations corresponding to 30).
The world human population has been growing since the end of the [[Black Death]], around the year 1350.<ref name=":4" /> A mix of technological advancement that improved [[agricultural productivity]]<ref>Hopfenberg, Russell. "[https://ia802907.us.archive.org/4/items/3anexpansionofthedemographictransitionmodel/3%20An%20expansion%20of%20the%20demographic%20transition%20model.pdf An expansion of the demographic transition model: the dynamic link between agricultural productivity and population.]" Biodiversity 15.4 (2014): 246–254.</ref> and sanitation and medical advancement that reduced mortality increased population growth. In some geographies, this has slowed through the process called the [[demographic transition]], where many nations with high standards of living have seen a significant slowing of population growth. This is in direct contrast with less developed contexts, where population growth is still happening.<ref>{{cite web|last1=Population Reference Bureau|title=2013 World Population Factsheet|url=http://www.prb.org/pdf14/2014-world-population-data-sheet_eng.pdf|access-date=5 December 2014|website=Population Reference Bureau|archive-date=18 February 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180218233032/http://www.prb.org/pdf14/2014-world-population-data-sheet_eng.pdf|url-status=dead}}</ref> Globally, the rate of population growth has declined from a peak of 2.2% per year in 1963.<ref name=":5">{{Cite journal |last1=Roser |first1=Max |author1-link=Max Roser |last2=Ritchie |first2=Hannah |author2-link=Hannah Ritchie |last3=Ortiz-Ospina |first3=Esteban |date=9 May 2013 |title=World Population Growth |url=https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth |journal=[[Our World in Data]]}}</ref> The global [[Projections of population growth|human population is projected]] to peak during the mid-21st century and decline by 2100.<ref name="ihme" />
| |||