Hindsight bias: Difference between revisions

The phenomenon of visual hindsight bias has important implications for a form of malpractice litigation that occurs in the field of radiology.<ref name="Berlin">{{cite journal |last1=Berlin |title=Malpractice issues in Radiology: Hindsight bias. |journal=American Journal of Roentgenology |date=2000 |volume=175 |issue=3 |pages=597–601|doi=10.2214/ajr.175.3.1750597 |pmid=10954437 }}</ref><ref name="Harley" /> Typically, in these cases, a radiologist is charged with having failed to detect the presence of an abnormality that was present in a radiology image. During litigation, a different radiologist – who now knows that the image contains an abnormality – is asked to judge how likely it would be for a naive radiologist to have detected the abnormality during the initial reading of the image. This kind of judgment directly parallels the judgments made in hindsight bias studies. Consistent with the hindsight bias literature, it has been found that abnormalities are, in fact, more easily detected in hindsight than foresight.<ref name="Muhm">{{cite journal |last1=Muhm |first1=J. |last2=Miller |first2=W. |last3=Fontana |first3=R |last4=Sanderson |first4=D. |last5=Uhlenhopp |first5=M. |title=Lung cancer detected during a screening program using four-month chest radiographs |journal=Radiology |date=1983 |volume=148 |issue=3 |pages=609–615|doi=10.1148/radiology.148.3.6308709 |pmid=6308709 }}</ref> In the absence of controls for hindsight bias, testifying radiologists may overestimate the ease with which the abnormality would have been detected in foresight.<ref name="Harley" />

 

Research suggests that people still exhibit the hindsight bias even when they are aware of it or possess the intention of eradicating it.<ref name="Pohl & Hell, 1996">{{cite journal | last1 = Pohl | first1 = R. | last2 = Hell | first2 = W. | year = 1996 | title = No reduction in Hindsight Bias after Complete Information and repeated Testing | journal = Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes | volume = 67 | issue = 1| pages = 49–58 | doi=10.1006/obhd.1996.0064}}</ref> There is no solution to eliminate hindsight bias in its totality, but only ways to reduce it.<ref name="Arkes et al., 1988"/> Some of these include considering alternative explanations or opening one's mind to different perspectives.<ref name="Blank & Nestler, 2007">{{cite journal|last1=Blank|first1=H.|last2=Nestler|first2=S.|year=2007|title=Cognitive Process Models of Hindsight Bias|journal=Social Cognition|volume=25|issue=1|pages=132–147|doi=10.1521/soco.2007.25.1.132}}</ref> The only observable way to decrease hindsight bias in testing is to have the participant think about how alternative hypotheses could be correct. As a result, the participant would doubt the correct hypothesis and report not having chosen it.