National debt of the United States: Difference between revisions

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According to a 2013 [[Forbes]] article, many American and other [[Financial analyst|economic analysts]] have expressed concerns on the amount of United States government debt the People's Republic of China is holding.<ref>[https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/01/23/is-chinas-ownership-of-u-s-debt-a-national-security-threat/#41479958afa3 "Is China's Ownership Of U.S. Debt A National Security Threat?"] by Kenneth Rapoza, ''[[Forbes]]'', 23 January 2013</ref><ref name=cnn>"... Should Americans be concerned that China has started dumping some of its Treasury holdings? After all, it raises serious questions about whether China will keep lending Washington money to help finance the federal deficit in the future.": From [https://money.cnn.com/2015/09/10/investing/china-dumping-us-debt "China is dumping U.S. debt"], CNN.com, September 11, 2015.</ref> as part of their reserves. The [[National Defense Authorization Act]] of FY2012 included a provision requiring the [[United States Secretary of Defense|Secretary of Defense]] to conduct a "national security risk assessment of U.S. federal debt held by China." The department issued its report in July 2012, stating that "attempting to use U.S. Treasury securities as a coercive tool would have limited effect and likely would do more harm to China than to the United States. An August 19, 2013 [[Congressional Research Service]] report said that the threat is not credible and the effect would be limited even if carried out. The report said that the threat would not offer "China deterrence options, whether in the diplomatic, military, or economic realms, and this would remain true both in peacetime and in scenarios of crisis or war."<ref name="labonte">[https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34314.pdf Report] on "China's Holdings of U.S. Securities: Implications for the U.S. Economy" by Wayne M. Morrison & Marc Labonte, [[Congressional Research Service]], 19 August 2013</ref>
 
A 2010 article by [[James K. Galbraith]] in ''[[The Nation]]'', defends deficits and dismisses concerns over foreign holdings of United States government debt denominated in U.S. dollars, including China's holdings.<ref name="james">:"...&nbsp;What about indebtedness to foreigners?&nbsp;... To acquire [U.S. gov't bonds], China must export goods to us, not offset by equivalent imports. That is a cost to China. It's a cost [[Government of China|Beijing]] is prepared to pay, for its own reasons: export industries promote learning, technology transfer and product quality improvement, and they provide jobs to migrants from the countryside. But that's China's business. For China, the bonds themselves are a sterile [[hoard]]. There is almost nothing that Beijing can do with them;&nbsp;... its stock of T-bonds will just go on growing. And we will pay interest on it, not with real effort but by typing numbers into computers. There is no burden associated with this; not now and not later." From [http://www.thenation.com/article/defense-deficits/ "In Defense of Deficits"] by [[James K. Galbraith]], ''[[The Nation]]'', March 4, 2010.</ref> In 2010, [[Warren Mosler]], wrote that "When[ever] the Chinese redeem those T-securities, the money is transferred back to China's checking account at the Fed. During the entire purchase and redemption process, the dollars never leave the Fed."<ref name="mosler">"...&nbsp;The Chinese buy U.S. T-securities by transferring U.S. dollars (not yuan) from their checking account at the Federal Reserve Bank to China's T-security account, also at the Federal Reserve Bank. When[ever] the Chinese redeem those T-securities, the money is transferred back to China's checking account at the Fed. During the entire purchase and redemption process, the dollars never leave the Fed." [http://moslereconomics.com/2010/09/23/what-policies-for-global-prosperity/ "What Policies for Global Prosperity?"] by [[Warren Mosler]], September 23, 2010.</ref> Australian economist [[Bill Mitchell (economist)|Bill Mitchell]] argued that the United States government had a "nearly infinite capacity...to spend."<ref name="mitchell">[[Bill Mitchell (economist)|Mitchell, Bill]], [[University of Newcastle (Australia)]]. [http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=18813 "The nearly infinite capacity of the US government to spend"] (March 28, 2012); [http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=25161 "The US government can buy as much of its own debt as it chooses"] (August 27, 2013)</ref> AnAgainst Augustthe backdrop of escalating Sino-U.S. tensions in 2020, ''[[KyodoYuzo News]]''Sakai, reporta frommanager Beijingat Ueda Totan Forex Ltd., sayssaid that, againstif theChina backdropundertakes ofa anmassive escalationsales inof Sino-U.S. tensionsbonds, financialinvestors marketsmay areflock concernedto thatthe [[Japanese yen]] as a safe-heaven currency. Since 2018, China mighthad weaponizebeen gradually decreasing its holdings of overU.S. adebt, bringing the total to $1&nbsp;.07 trillion (~${{Format price|{{Inflation|index=US-GDP|value=1000000000000|start_year=2020}}}} in {{Inflation/year|US-GDP}})June of2020, Unitedbehind StatesJapan debt.who Ifbecame Chinathe undertakesbiggest aforeign massive salescreditor of itsthe U.S. TreasuryStephen bondsNagy, ita wouldprofessor resultat inthe [[International Christian University]], said a decreasesell-off inby China "might damage the priceUnited ofStates debtin andthe anshort increaseterm" inbut interestalso ratescause "critical economic instability" in the UnitedChinese Statesand global economy. Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at [[Temple University, Japan Campus|Temple University, Japan]] echoed the view, adding that dumping would stiflelower Americanthe domesticprice "investmentof andU.S. bonds, making it more attractive to other countries. According to an [[consumerinstitutional spendinginvestor]]."<ref, name="Kyodo_Tachikawa_20200820">{{Citehowever, web|it titlemay =be Focus:difficult Fearsfor growJapan overto China'sboost possibleits massivealready saleslarge holdings of U.S. government debt, as weapon|first=Tomoyukisuch a move could seen as "currency manipulation".<ref>{{Cite web |last=Tachikawa |first=Tomoyuki |date=AugustAug 20, 2020| work|title=Fears [[Kyodogrow News]]|over access-dateChina's =possible Septembermassive 4,sales 2020|of urlU.S. =debt as weapon |url=https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/08/fb165250518a-focus-fears-grow-over-chinas-possible-massive-sales-of-us-debt-as-weapon.html |website=Kyodo News+}}</ref> However, a massive Chinese selloff, resulting in a drop in the price of debt, will also adversely impact China's proceeds on sale as well as the value of its remaining holdings.
 
=== Sustainability ===