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== History ==
The first known example of an opinion poll was a
Then, in [[1936 United States presidential election|1936]], its survey of 2.3 million voters suggested that [[Alf Landon]] would win the presidential election, but Roosevelt was instead re-elected by a landslide. [[George Gallup]]'s research found that the error was mainly caused by [[participation bias]]; those who favored Landon were more enthusiastic about returning their postcards. Furthermore, the postcards were sent to a target audience who were more affluent than the American population as a whole, and therefore more likely to have [[United States Republican Party|Republican]] sympathies.<ref name="squire">{{Cite web|last=Squire|first=Peverill|date=1988|title=Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed|url=https://issuu.com/chilesoc/docs/why-the-1936-literary-digest-poll|access-date=2020-11-15|work=Public Opinion Quarterly|language=en|archive-date=2022-01-04|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220104053033/https://issuu.com/chilesoc/docs/why-the-1936-literary-digest-poll|url-status=live}}</ref> At the same time, Gallup, [[Archibald Crossley]] and [[Elmo Roper]] conducted surveys that were far smaller but more scientifically based, and all three managed to correctly predict the result.<ref name=":0">{{Citation|last=Dietrich|first=Bryce J.|title=Crossley, Archibald (1896–1985)|date=2008|url=http://sk.sagepub.com/reference/survey/n118.xml|encyclopedia=Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods|pages=170–171|place=Thousand Oaks|publisher=SAGE Publications, Inc.|doi=10.4135/9781412963947|isbn=9781412918084|access-date=2021-05-22|archive-date=2021-05-23|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210523020215/http://sk.sagepub.com/reference/survey/n118.xml|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="cantril">{{cite web |last1=Cantril |first1=Hadley |first2=Mildred |last2=Strunk |year=1951 |url=https://www.questia.com/read/98754561?title=Public%20Opinion%2c%201935-1946 |title=Public Opinion, 1935–1946 |publisher=Princeton University Press |page=vii |access-date=2017-09-07 |archive-date=2009-06-29 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090629104413/http://www.questia.com/read/98754561?title=Public%20Opinion%2C%201935-1946 |url-status=live }}</ref> ''The Literary Digest'' soon went out of business, while polling started to take off.<ref name=":0"/> Roper went on to correctly predict the two subsequent reelections of President Franklin D. Roosevelt. [[Louis Harris]] had been in the field of public opinion since 1947 when he joined the Elmo Roper firm, then later became partner.
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