National debt of the United States: Difference between revisions

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→‎Interest and debt service costs: Updated to 2023 numbers
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→‎Interest and debt service costs: Updated text to be in line with 2023 data.
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[[File:U.S. Federal Net Interest as Pct GDP.png|thumb|right|upright=1.35|Interest to GDP, a measure of debt burden, was very low in 2015 but is projected to rise with both interest rates and debt levels over the 2016–2026 period.]]
[[File:2023 Interest on federal debt.png|thumb|300px|right|upright=1.6|2023 Interest on federal debt]]
Interest expense on the public debt was approximately $678 billion in FY2023. During FY2023, the government also accrued a non-cash interest expense of $197 billion for intra-governmental debt, primarily the Social Security Trust Fund, for a total interest expense of $875 billion. This accrued interest is added to the Social Security Trust Fund and therefore the national debt each year and will be paid to Social Security recipients in the future. However, since it is a non-cash expense it is excluded from the budget deficit calculation.<ref name="GAO 2023 Report">{{cite web |url=https://www.gao.gov/assets/d24106340.pdff |title=GAO FINANCIAL AUDIT Bureau of the Fiscal Service’s FY 2023 and FY 2022 Schedules of Federal Debt |page=18 |date=November 2023 |access-date=1-25-2024 }}</ref>
Despite rising debt levels, interest costs have remained at approximately 2008 levels (around $450&nbsp;billion in total) because of lower than long-term interest rates paid on government debt in recent years. The federal debt at the end of the 2018/19 fiscal year (ended September 30, 2019) was $22.7&nbsp;trillion (~${{Format price|{{Inflation|index=US-GDP|value=22700000000000|start_year=2018}}}} in {{Inflation/year|US-GDP}}). The portion that is held by the public was $16.8&nbsp;trillion. Neither figure includes approximately $2.5&nbsp;trillion owed to the government.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-20-117|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2019 and FY 2018 Schedules of Federal Debt|first=U. S. Government Accountability|last=Office|website=www.gao.gov}}</ref> Interest on the debt was $404&nbsp;billion.<ref>https://www.gao.gov/assets/710/702591.pdf, https://www.gao.gov/assets/710/704983.pdf</ref>
 
Despite rising debt levels, interest costs have remained at approximately 2008 levels (around $450&nbsp;billion in total) because of lower than long-term interest rates paid on government debt in recent years. The federal debt at the end of the 2018/19 fiscal year (ended September 30, 2019) was $22.7&nbsp;trillion (~${{Format price|{{Inflation|index=US-GDP|value=22700000000000|start_year=2018}}}} in {{Inflation/year|US-GDP}}). The portion that is held by the public was $16.8&nbsp;trillion. Neither figure includes approximately $2.5&nbsp;trillion owed to the government.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-20-117|title=Financial Audit: Bureau of the Fiscal Service's FY 2019 and FY 2018 Schedules of Federal Debt|first=U. S. Government Accountability|last=Office|website=www.gao.gov}}</ref> Interest on the debt was $404&nbsp;billion.<ref>https://www.gao.gov/assets/710/702591.pdf, https://www.gao.gov/assets/710/704983.pdf</ref>
 
The cost of servicing the U.S. national debt can be measured in various ways. The CBO analyzes net interest as a percentage of GDP, with a higher percentage indicating a higher interest payment burden. During 2015, this was 1.3% GDP, close to the record low 1.2% of the 1966–1968 era. The average from 1966 to 2015 was 2.0% of GDP.<ref>[https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51384 CBO-Updated Budget Projections 2016–2026], cbo.gov; retrieved May 11, 2016.</ref> However, the CBO estimated in 2016 that the interest amounts and % GDP will increase significantly over the following decade as both interest rates and debt levels rise: "Interest payments on that debt represent a large and rapidly growing expense of the federal government. CBO's baseline shows net interest payments more than tripling under current law, climbing from $231 billion in 2014, or 1.3% of GDP, to $799 billion in 2024, or 3.0% of GDP—the highest ratio since 1996."<ref>[https://www.cbo.gov/publication/45684 CBO-Projection of Federal Interest Payments], cbo.gov, September 3, 2014.</ref>