Climate variability and change: Difference between revisions

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|pages=230–59
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At a larger scale—a few times every 50 million to 100 million years—the eruption of [[large igneous province]]s brings large quantities of [[igneous rock]] from the [[mantle (geology)|mantle]] and [[lithosphere]] to the Earth's surface. Carbon dioxide in the rock is then released into the atmosphere.<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Deep Carbon and the Life Cycle of Large Igneous Provinces|last1=Black|first1=Benjamin A.|last2=Gibson|first2=Sally A.|date=2019|journal=Elements|doi=10.2138/gselements.15.5.319|volume=15|issue=5|pages=319–324|doi-access=free|bibcode=2019Eleme..15..319B }}</ref>
<ref>{{cite journal
|doi=10.1016/S0012-8252(00)00037-4
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Analysis of ice in cores drilled from an [[ice sheet]] such as the [[Antarctic ice sheet]], can be used to show a link between temperature and global sea level variations. The air trapped in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO<sub>2</sub> variations of the atmosphere from the distant past, well before modern environmental influences. The study of these ice cores has been a significant indicator of the changes in CO<sub>2</sub> over many millennia, and continues to provide valuable information about the differences between ancient and modern atmospheric conditions. The <sup>18</sup>O/<sup>16</sup>O ratio in calcite and ice core samples [[Oxygen isotope ratio cycle|used to deduce ocean temperature in the distant past]] is an example of a temperature proxy method.
 
The remnants of plants, and specifically pollen, are also used to study climatic change. Plant distributions vary under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have pollen with distinctive shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different layers of sediment indicate changes in plant communities. These changes are often a sign of a changing climate.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Langdon|first1=P.G.|last2=Barber|first2=K.E.|last3=Lomas-Clarke|first3=S.H.|last4=Lomas-Clarke|first4=S.H.|date=August 2004|title=Reconstructing climate and environmental change in northern England through chironomid and pollen analyses: evidence from Talkin Tarn, Cumbria|journal=Journal of Paleolimnology|volume=32|issue=2|pages=197–213|bibcode=2004JPall..32..197L|doi=10.1023/B:JOPL.0000029433.85764.a5|s2cid=128561705}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last=Birks|first=H.H.|date=March 2003|title=The importance of plant macrofossils in the reconstruction of Lateglacial vegetation and climate: examples from Scotland, western Norway, and Minnesota, US|url=https://bora.uib.no/bitstream/1956/387/4/1956-387.pdf|journal=Quaternary Science Reviews|volume=22|issue=5–7|pages=453–73|bibcode=2003QSRv...22..453B|doi=10.1016/S0277-3791(02)00248-2|hdl=1956/387|hdl-access=free|access-date=20 April 2018|archive-date=11 June 2007|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070611133600/https://bora.uib.no/bitstream/1956/387/4/1956-387.pdf|url-status=dead}}</ref> As an example, pollen studies have been used to track changing vegetation patterns throughout the [[Quaternary glaciation]]s<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Miyoshi|first1=N|last2=Fujiki|first2=Toshiyuki|last3=Morita|first3=Yoshimune|year=1999|title=Palynology of a 250-m core from Lake Biwa: a 430,000-year record of glacial–interglacial vegetation change in Japan|journal=Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology|volume=104|issue=3–4|pages=267–83|doi=10.1016/S0034-6667(98)00058-X|bibcode=1999RPaPa.104..267M}}</ref> and especially since the [[last glacial maximum]].<ref>{{cite journal|last=Prentice|first=I. Colin|author2=Bartlein, Patrick J|author3=Webb, Thompson|year=1991|title=Vegetation and Climate Change in Eastern North America Since the Last Glacial Maximum|journal=Ecology|volume=72|issue=6|pages=2038–56|doi=10.2307/1941558|jstor=1941558|bibcode=1991Ecol...72.2038P }}</ref> Remains of [[beetle]]s are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given the extensive lineage of beetles whose genetic makeup has not altered significantly over the millennia, knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and the age of the sediments in which remains are found, past climatic conditions may be inferred.<ref name="Coope1999">{{cite journal |last1=Coope |first1=G.R. |last2=Lemdahl |first2=G. |last3=Lowe |first3=J.J. |last4=Walkling |first4=A. |date=4 May 1999 |title=Temperature gradients in northern Europe during the last glacial – Holocene transition (14–9 14 C kyr BP) interpreted from coleopteran assemblages |journal=[[Journal of Quaternary Science]] |volume=13 |issue=5 |pages=419–33 |bibcode=1998JQS....13..419C |doi=10.1002/(SICI)1099-1417(1998090)13:5<419::AID-JQS410>3.0.CO;2-D}}</ref>
 
=== Analysis and uncertainties ===
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==== Vegetation ====
A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change in the climate. Some changes in climate may result in increased precipitation and warmth, resulting in improved plant growth and the subsequent sequestration of airborne CO<sub>2</sub>. Though an increase in CO<sub>2</sub> may benefit plants, some factors can diminish this increase. If there is an environmental change such as drought, increased CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations will not benefit the plant. So even though climate change does increase CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, plants will often not use this increase as other environmental stresses put pressure on them<ref>{{Cite journal |lastlast1=Ainsworth |firstfirst1=E. A. |last2=Lemonnier |first2=P. |last3=Wedow |first3=J. M. |date=January 2020-01 |editor-last=Tausz‐PoschTausz-Posch |editor-first=S. |title=The influence of rising tropospheric carbon dioxide and ozone on plant productivity |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/plb.12973 |journal=Plant Biology |language=en |volume=22 |issue=S1 |pages=5–11 |doi=10.1111/plb.12973 |issn=1435-8603 |pmc=PMC69165946916594 |pmid=30734441|bibcode=2020PlBio..22S...5A }}</ref>. However, sequestration of CO<sub>2</sub> is expected to affect the rate of many natural cycles like [[plant litter]] decomposition rates.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Ochoa-Hueso |first1=R |last2=Delgado-Baquerizo |first2=N |last3=King |first3=PTA |last4=Benham |first4=M |last5=Arca |first5=V |last6=Power |first6=SA |title=Ecosystem type and resource quality are more important than global change drivers in regulating early stages of litter decomposition |journal=Soil Biology and Biochemistry |date=2019 |volume=129 |pages=144–52 |doi=10.1016/j.soilbio.2018.11.009 |hdl=10261/336676 |s2cid=92606851 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> A gradual increase in warmth in a region will lead to earlier flowering and fruiting times, driving a change in the timing of life cycles of dependent organisms. Conversely, cold will cause plant bio-cycles to lag.<ref>{{cite web |last=Kinver |first=Mark |date=15 November 2011 |title=UK trees' fruit ripening '18 days earlier' |publisher=Bbc.co.uk |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15721263 |access-date=1 November 2012 |archive-date=17 March 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230317140816/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15721263 |url-status=live }}</ref>
 
Larger, faster or more radical changes, however, may result in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and [[desertification]] in certain circumstances.<ref name="SahneyBentonFalconLang 2010RainforestCollapse">{{cite journal |last1=Sahney |first1=S. |last2=Benton |first2=M.J. |last3=Falcon-Lang |first3=H.J. |year=2010 |title=Rainforest collapse triggered Pennsylvanian tetrapod diversification in Euramerica |journal=Geology |doi=10.1130/G31182.1 |bibcode=2010Geo....38.1079S |volume=38 |issue=12 |pages=1079–82 |url=https://www.academia.edu/368820 |format=PDF |access-date=27 November 2013 |archive-date=17 March 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230317140814/https://www.academia.edu/368820 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Bachelet |first1=D. |author-link1=Dominique Bachelet|last2=Neilson |first2=R. |last3=Lenihan |first3=J. M. |last4=Drapek |first4=R.J. |year=2001 |title=Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Budget in the United States |journal=[[Ecosystems]] |doi=10.1007/s10021-001-0002-7 |volume=4 |issue=3 |pages=164–85 |bibcode=2001Ecosy...4..164B |s2cid=15526358 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |lastlast1=Ridolfi |firstfirst1=Luca |last2=D'Odorico |first2=P. |last3=Porporato |first3=A. |last4=Rodriguez‐IturbeRodriguez-Iturbe |first4=I. |date=2000-07-27 |title=Impact of climate variability on the vegetation water stress |url=https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000JD900206 |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |language=en |volume=105 |issue=D14 |pages=18013–18025 |doi=10.1029/2000JD900206 |bibcode=2000JGR...10518013R |issn=0148-0227}}</ref> An example of this occurred during the [[Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse]] (CRC), an extinction event 300 million years ago. At this time vast rainforests covered the equatorial region of Europe and America. Climate change devastated these tropical rainforests, abruptly fragmenting the habitat into isolated 'islands' and causing the extinction of many plant and animal species.<ref name="SahneyBentonFalconLang 2010RainforestCollapse" />
 
==== Wildlife ====