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Line 145: In [[Statewide opinion polling for the 2012 United States presidential election\|statewide opinion polling]], incumbent Barack Obama consistently led challenger Mitt Romney by a margin of between 2 and 12 [[percentage point]]s.<ref>{{Cite web\|title=Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama\|work=RealClearPolitics\|url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html#polls\|access-date=October 17, 2012}}</ref> Analysts rated Pennsylvania as a "likely Democratic" or "Democratic-leaning" state in the presidential race.<ref name=AnalystRatings/> On the morning of the election, polling aggregator [[FiveThirtyEight]] estimated that there was a 99% likelihood that Obama would win Pennsylvania's electoral votes.<ref>{{Cite web\|url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/\|title=FiveThirtyEight\|last=Silver\|first=Nate\|author-link=Nate Silver\|work=The New York Times\|access-date=November 8, 2012}}</ref> At the time, Pennsylvania's electoral votes had gone to the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since [[Bill Clinton]] won it in [[1992 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania\|1992]].<ref name=PostGazetteSept/> The average of the last three polls had Obama leading Romney 51% to 46%, which was very close to the actual result.<ref>{{cite web\|title=2012 Presidential Election Polls - PA\|url=https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?fips=42\|publisher=US Election Atlas}}</ref> During the summer, there was significant spending on [[Campaign advertising\|political advertisements]] in Pennsylvania, by both the [[Barack Obama 2012 presidential campaign\|Obama campaign]] and pro-Romney groups such as [[American Crossroads\|Crossroads GPS]] and [[Americans for Prosperity]].<ref name=LevyOct30>{{Cite news\|title=Romney, Obama campaigns resume Pa. ad campaigns\|url=http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/state/pennsylvania/20121030_ap_romneyobamacampaignsresumepaadcampaigns.html\|newspaper=Philly.com\|date=October 30, 2012\|first=Marc\|last=Levy\|agency=Associated Press\|access-date=November 2, 2012\|archive-date=November 3, 2012\|archive-url=https://~~www~~archive.~~webcitation.org~~today/20121103015118/~~6Bt5X4YtU?url=~~http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/news/state/pennsylvania/20121030_ap_romneyobamacampaignsresumepaadcampaigns.html\|url-status=live\|df=mdy-all}}</ref> However, because Obama maintained a consistent lead in polling, Pennsylvania came to be considered a "safe state" for Obama, and campaign advertising subsided substantially in August.<ref name=LevyOct30/> This changed in October, when pro-Romney groups [[Restore Our Future]] and [[Americans for Job Security]] spent $3 million on advertising in Pennsylvania.<ref name=LevyOct30/> Later that month, the Obama campaign and the [[Mitt Romney 2012 presidential campaign\|Romney campaign]] both launched their own advertising campaigns in Pennsylvania.<ref name=LevyOct30/> On November 1, the [[Republican National Committee]] announced that it would spend $3 million on television ads in Pennsylvania in the final days of the campaign.<ref name=LevyNov1>{{Cite news\|title=Romney, RNC splashing down in Pa. in 11th-hour bid\|first=Marc\|last=Levy\|agency=Associated Press\|access-date=November 2, 2012\|date=November 1, 2012\|newspaper=Deseret News\|url=http://www.deseretnews.com/article/765614482/Romney-RNC-splashing-down-in-Pa-in-11th-hour-bid.html\|archive-date=March 30, 2014\|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140330113853/http://www.deseretnews.com/article/765614482/Romney-RNC-splashing-down-in-Pa-in-11th-hour-bid.html\|url-status=live\|df=mdy-all}}</ref> In total, pro-Romney spending in Pennsylvania was estimated to amount to as much as $12 million, much more than Obama campaign spending.<ref name=LevyNov1/> The Obama campaign characterized the pro-Romney spending surge as "an act of sheer desperation", while the Romney campaign argued that they had a realistic chance of winning the state.<ref name=LevyNov1/> In the end, Obama carried the state by a modest margin, albeit narrower than his 2008 landslide over Senator [[John McCain]]. ===Results===

2012 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania: Difference between revisions