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Line 25: (Kahneman & Tversky, 1972). Local representativeness is ~~when~~an assumption wherein people rely on the law of small numbers, whereby small samples are perceived to represent their population to the same extent as large samples (Tversky and Kahneman, 1971). A small sample which appears randomly distributed would reinforce the belief, under the assumption of local representativeness, that the population is randomly distributed. Conversely, a small sample with a skewed distribution would weaken this belief. If a coin toss is repeated several times and the majority of the results consists of 'heads', the assumption of local representativeness will cause the observer to believe the coin is biased toward 'heads'. ~~(Tversky and Kahneman, 1971). The [[Gambler's Fallacy]] results from this thinking pattern:~~ ~~an outcome that reflects a more even distribution is regarded as more representative than an~~ ~~outcome that reflects an uneven distribution, even within a small number of trials.~~ ~~Therefore, when a sequence of randomly generated trials repeatedly strays in one direction~~ ~~(e.g. a die rolls on to the number 6 three times in a row) people mistakenly expect the~~ opposite to be more likely over the next few trials (e.g. the die rolling on to 2) <ref>{{cite journal\|last=Fortune & Goodie\|first=E & A\|title=Cognitive distortion as a component and treatment focus of pathological gambling: A review.\|journal=Psychology of Addictive Behaviors\|year=2011\|issue=Advanced online publication\|doi=10.1037/a0026422}}</ref>(Fortune & ~~Goodie, 2011).~~ ==Examples==

Representativeness heuristic: Difference between revisions