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2000s energy crisis

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"Petrol prices" redirects here. For See also: Gasoline usage and pricing, see Petrol prices (disambiguation).

The price of standard crude oil on NYMEX was under $25/barrel in September 2003. By August 11, 2005, it had risen to over $60/barrel. Through most of 2006 the price showed a bumpy plateau, with a summer peak, falling for the early part of 2007 to between $50 and $60/barrel, before rising again. By October 2007 prices had reached $92/barrel and reached $99.29/barrel for December futures in New York on November 21, 2007[2]. On January 2, 2008, oil prices had an all-time peak at $100 per barrel.[3]

Crude oil prices, 2005-2007 (not adjusted for inflation)
U.S. Retail Gasoline prices, 2005-2007 (not adjusted for inflation)
Oil prices from 1861-2006 in dollars of the day (black) and 2006 dollars (orange).[1]

It remains to be seen if the rising trend eventually becomes a long plateau or just a steady rise with the occasional pause. These values are now about equivalent to the inflation adjusted maximum of 1980, which was equivalent to a price of circa $95-100/ barrel in mid 2007 dollars, [4] contributing to fears of a similar economic recession to that of the early 1980s. Over the last few years commentators have attributed price increases to a variety of factors, including North Korea's missile launches, the Crisis between Israel and Lebanon, United States brinkmanship concerning Iranian nuclear energy, unrest in Nigeria and many others. However, the longer the trend continues, the more likely the reasons are more fundamental, such as reports from the U.S. Department of Energy and others showing a decline in petroleum reserves. [5] In the US oil prices reflect directly into fuel prices, while in other parts of the world, local subsidies and taxes mean that this is not always true. A comparison of the price of a US gallon of fuel in other countries shows variation from $0.20 to $7 per US gal.[6] A later graph on the same web page shows the same numbers divided by GDP, which partly allows for the relative wealth of different countries.

Supply

There are good reasons for a slow down in oil supply growth, which is the most permanent factor leading to increased prices. Turbulence in the Middle East, the world's largest oil-producing region, has led to decreased exports; other factors include US pressure on Iran's nuclear program,[citation needed] and instability in Saudi Arabia. Outside the Middle East, oil producing nations have experienced problems, such as the strikes and political unrest in Venezuela and potential instability in West Africa.

In view of tighter supplies worldwide, terrorist and insurgent groups have increasingly targeted oil and gas installations to maximise both mayhem and political gains. Sometimes, such attacks are perpetrated by militias in regions where oil wealth has produced little tangible benefits for the local citizenry, as is the case in the Niger delta. The terror factor adds an additional premium, including insurance costs, to the price of oil.[7]

In late August, 2005, Hurricane Katrina crippled the supply-flow from off-shore rigs in the Gulf Coast, the largest source of oil for the domestic U.S. market. Short-term shutdowns because of power outages knocked out two major on-shore pipelines, and at least 10% of the nation's refining capacity was not operating in the wake of the storm. Gas prices in the region, normally 70 cents below the national average, were at $3.12 on August 30.[8]

World supply[9] came in at 83 million barrels a day during 2004 in department of energy EIA calculations.[10] This rate of increase is faster than that of any other date in the past.[citation needed] Despite this increase in supply, prices have continued to rise, leading to increasing speculation about the likely timing of Peak Oil and the possibility that the near future may see a noticeable reducing supply of oil.

Even if total oil volumes are not reduced, increasing numbers of experts feel the easily accessible sources of light sweet crude are almost exhausted and in the future the world will depend on more expensive sources of heavy oil and renewable energy sources. Other experts, such as CERA (a consulting company wholly owned by IHS Energy[11]) do not feel this is such an immediate problem. However, other organisations, such as the IEA, are much less rosy in their latest assessments.[12]

The short term price of oil is partly controlled by the OPEC cartel, which can set national production quotas, and the oligopoly of major oil companies. Another contributory factor is the United States dollar's slide against the Euro. Since oil is traded in dollars, the price increases maintain OPECs purchasing power in Europe and elsewhere. (see below)

Causes, Supply and Demand

Labor strikes, hurricane threats to oil platforms, fires and terrorist threats at refineries, and other short-lived problems are not solely responsible for the higher prices. Such problems can push prices higher, but are neither fundamental nor long-lived. A more long term fundamental problem is that global oil production at some point will decline. This idea is often summarised in the term peak oil. Not only is there a limited amount of fossil fuel suitable to be burnt as fuel, but the remaining accessible supply is consumed more rapidly by a growing, industrializing Third World. What remains becomes more difficult to extract. Producing many remaining known reserves is more technically difficult and therefore more expensive, so it is only economically feasible in high oil price environments. Remaining sources either have not yet been discovered, or are currently unable to be utilized due to local impediments. Although there is much contention about the exact timing and form of peak oil, there are very few parties who do not acknowledge the concept is valid, and there will be a peak. (Except perhaps for those who claim oil is both abiotic, and rapidly self renewing, though this theory has few remaining serious proponents. See the "contentious theory" section in Abiogenic petroleum origin)

Recently, following the Federal Reserve's actions, there has also been increasing speculation on the oil market that tends to push up prices. Speculators try to preempt increasing demand, decreasing supply, or both, leading to a long term increase in the price of oil. If speculators are wrong, current prices may actually be a price bubble, and the price could thus collapse. A July 14, 2005 Morgan Stanley report[13] suggests that opinions of the oil market could burst just like a bubble if indications of declining Asian demand continue.

The United States has the largest demand for oil, although Chinese crude oil imports are moving upwards, already in second place, and could equal the USA by 2010-2012. The USA uses around 25% of the world's total oil production and 40% of the world's gasoline production -- with only about 5% of the total world population and 28% of global GDP (2006 estimates). Due to falling domestic production (current production is about half as much as at peak in 1971) and expanding demand each year, approximately 2/3 of the oil consumed by the U.S. is imported from foreign countries. This dependency leaves the U.S. vulnerable to any supply disruption. [14]

Lack of energy efficiency is one area that could be addresed by technological advances in factories, homes, and transportation, easing the demand crunch by using less fossil energy and more renewable energy.

The present increase could be linked to the cooler than normal winter in the US. As the winter progresses the price may go up further, but a seasonal drop is likely in the following year.

History

Mid 2005 increase

 
Overnight gas price hike shown at a Chicago area BP station (background) on August 12, 2005. The Shell station (foreground) has not yet posted the 12 cent price hike.

After retreating for several months during the winter of 2004/2005, crude oil prices rose to new highs in March 2005. The price on NYMEX has been above $50/barrel since March 5, 2005. On March 16, 2005, the price surpassed the October 2004 high of $55.17 to close at $56.46. In April 2005 the price began to fall, reaching $53.32 on April 9. It then reversed course and headed to an all time high of $58.28, driven mainly by lingering concerns of a prolonged weak dollar. In June 2005 crude oil prices broke the psychological barrier of $60.

2005-2006 increases

In the United States gasoline prices reached a record high during the first week of September 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The average retail price was nearly $3.04 per US gallon.[15] The previous high was $1.42 per gallon in March 1981, which would be $3.20 per gallon after adjustment for inflation. In comparison, the average retail price of a litre of petrol in the United Kingdom (gasoline in American English) was 86.4p on 19 October 2006.[16] This equates to US$6.13 per U.S. gallon.

On January 17, 2006 crude oil for February delivery rose by $2.38 (3.7%) to $66.30 a barrel. This was the highest increase since early October 2005. Observers believe that violence in Nigeria, and Iran's friction with the West are responsible for this price increase. Continued concerns about Iran raised the price to $68.38 on January 31.[17] However, due to rising stockpiles of crude oil and an abnormally warm winter, as of February 14, the price of crude had hit a 2006 low of $59.60.[18]

Mid 2006 increase

 
July 2006, San Francisco, California

Regular gasoline prices were averaging $3.036/gallon across the U.S. in August, 2006, slightly below the post-Katrina peak of $3.057[19]. Adjusted for inflation, these U.S. prices were the highest in 25 years. The all-time U.S. inflation-adjusted record is approximately $3.20/gallon, set in March, 1981.[20]

In July 2006, crude oil for August delivery traded over $79/bbl,[21] an all-time record. The early and mid-summer 2006 runup is attributable to increasing gasoline consumption, up 1.9% year over year in the U.S., and geopolitical tensions as North Korea launched missiles, the Iran nuclear standoff drags on, and Israel and Lebanon went to war. The early spring 2006 runup in prices has been attributed to a number of factors, including continuing supply disruptions from the summer 2005 hurricane season (18% of Gulf Coast supplies were still off-line in spring '06), supply disruptions from the changeover from MTBE to ethanol, lingering concerns over Iran and Nigeria, and anticipation of higher summer demand. Hostilities in Nigeria alone have caused a supply disruption of 675,000 bbl/day.[22] On August 7, BP shut down its Prudhoe Bay, AK field due to pipeline corrosion, bringing supply down by up to 400,000 bbl/day or about 8% of total U.S. production.[23]

"Rationing by price" is a reality because near-stagnant world crude supply is not meeting ever-increasing demand, as witnessed by oil shortages in Africa, India, and China. It is possible that the apex of peak oil production has or will soon arrive, and an energy crisis is possible in the U.S., by far the world's biggest per capita oil user. With approximately 5% of the world's population, the U.S. uses about 25% of the world's oil and 40% of the world's gasoline produced each day -- about 2/3 of which are imports. This dependency leaves the U.S. highly vulnerable to any supply disruption and/or ratcheting up of prices.

The higher price of oil substantially cut growth of world oil demand in 2006, including an outright reduction in the oil demand of the OECD[24]. Larger energy conservation and demand destruction will probably take place only after average U.S. gasoline prices are sustained in the $4.00-5.00/gallon range. This would equate to the psychologically-significant level of $100.00 or more per fillup of an average SUV or full-size pickup truck.

September 2006 decreases

Oil prices began to decrease during September 2006, closing below US$66/barrel on September 11.[25] The U.S. national average gas price dropped to US$2.70/gallon in early September, down US$0.11 from the previous week. Some cities were seeing average prices below US$2.40/gallon.[26]

As of September, prices continued to fall, and the average cost of gasoline per gallon (U.S. nationwide) is below US$2.50. On September 19, crude oil fell US$2.14 to a 6-month low of US$61.66. The recent significant fall in the price of crude oil has led some to speculate that price of gasoline may fall to as low as $1.15/gallon[27] By October 3, the price closed at US$58.68, its lowest close since mid-February. [28] Reasons for the recent price decreases have included easing tensions with Iran, ample supply and the lack of hurricane activity in oil-producing regions of the Gulf of Mexico[citation needed].

After news of North Korea's successful nuclear test on October 9, 2006, oil prices rose past $60 a barrel, but fell back the next day. Also, for several days in early October, oil prices bounced around the $60 mark on possible news that some OPEC countries would cut oil production by 1,000,000 barrels a day. OPEC had not cut its production since December 2004. However, the oil market has lately seemed to shrug that news off, especially considering that Saudi Arabia said that no such agreement exists (to cut production).

On October 11, oil prices fell below US$58 for the first time since February. Days later, on October 20, a barrel of crude oil closed at US$56.82 per barrel. The same day, OPEC declared that they would cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day in order to arrest the sliding price, the first drop since December 2004.[29]

Mid 2007 increases

The US national average (as of May 16. 2007) was $3.09, and some parts of the West Coast were selling regular unleaded at $3.33/gallon (e.g. San Francisco and Los Angeles). On NYMEX, a barrel was trading at $73.93, based on civil unrest in Nigeria. A pipeline disruption in the North Sea has also bumped the price of Brent Crude up to $79.64 (an all time high).[30]

Legislation from the Democratic-controlled U.S. Congress, from approving the No Oil Production and Exporting Cartels Act of 2007 (where the Sherman Act is amended towards foreign companies acting as cartels), and hearings (as of 5/22/2007) from the House Energy and Commerce Committee's Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee will address the following: price gouging (especially from oil companies) as a federal crime, and the intervention of the Joint Economic Committee led by Senator Charles Schumer to which lawmakers should intervene where the current corporate mergers (Exxonmobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Shell) should break up, as a way to protect American consumers.

The "NOPEC" bill passed the U.S. House of Representatives with a 345-72 vote on May 22, 2007.

On September 12, 2007 oil prices rose to an all-time high of $80 per barrel, which surpassed even the highs of the early 1980s. High prices and restricted supplies have increased the concerns of those who believe that peak oil is either imminent, or may have already passed, because of the implication that oil supplies will not increase significantly beyond that point, and in the longer term a decline will occur. It should be remembered that some of this trend in prices is partly due to the slide of the dollar against other currencies. Measured in Euro for example, as the dollar has been falling steadily, the price of oil appears much less volatile. This results in worldwide price gains being relatively mild, but as the dollar loses its weakness against the euro, oil prices in the United States rise because they are priced in dollars.

Late 2007 increases

On October 19, 2007, US light crude rose to a new height of $90.02 per barrel due to a combination of ongoing tensions in eastern Turkey and the reducing strength of the US dollar.[31] Prices fell briefly on the expectation of increased US crude oil stocks, however they rose again rapidly to a peak of $92.22 on October 26, 2007 when stocks were revealed to have instead fallen.[32]

Prices increased throughout late October and early November. On November 7, 2007 light crude oil reached another record, closing at $98.10 per barrel. As of November 21, 2007 oil prices rose to a new high of $99.29 per barrel,[33] leading to fears of the price breaking the $100 per barrel mark due to a Wall Street Journal report which stated that peak oil had arrived.

Early 2008 increases

On January 2, 2008 US light crude surpassed the psychological barrier of $100 before falling to $99.69, due to tensions on New Years Day in Nigeria and on suspicion that US stocks of crude will have dropped for the seventh consecutive week. A BBC report from the following day stated that a single trader bid up the price. Stephen Schork, a former floor trader on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the editor of an oil market newsletter, said one floor trader bought 1,000 barrels, the smallest amount permitted, and sold it immediately for $99.40 at a $600 loss. "They absolutely overpaid, he paid $600 for the right to tell his grandchildren that he was the first in the world to buy $100 oil." However, on January 3, 2008 oil rose to $100.05 a barrel. [34]

Forecasted prices

Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency expressed his opinion in October, 2007 that oil prices will remain high for the foreseeable future due to rapid increases in demand from the huge developing economies of India and China.[35] According to informed observers, OPEC, meeting in early December, 2007, seemed to desire a high but stable price that would deliver substantial needed income to the oil producing states, but avoid prices so high that they would negatively impact the economies of the oil consuming nations. A range of 70-80 dollars a barrel was suggested by some analysts to be OPEC's goal.[36] Analysts point out that major oil exporting countries are rapidly developing and are using more oil domestically. Particularly significant are Indonesia, which no longer exports oil, Mexico and Iran, where projected demand will exceed production in about 5 years, and Russia, which is growing rapidly.[37]

Effects

There is controversy regarding the potential effects of oil-price shocks. Some see these increases in the price of oil leading to a recession comparable to those that followed the 1973 and 1979 energy crises or a potentially worse situation such as a global oil crash. Most economists see this as unlikely[citation needed], partly because such price shocks could potentially be mitigated the many developed countries which have high fuel taxes by temporarily or permanently suspending these taxes as fuel costs rise. France, Italy, and the Netherlands lowered taxes in 2000 in response to protests over high prices, but other European nations resisted this option[38]. The issue came up again in 2004, when oil reached $40 a barrel causing a meeting of 25 EU finance ministers to lower economic growth forcasts for that year. Because of budget deficits in several countries, they decided to pressure OPEC to lower prices instead of lowering taxes[39]. In 2007, European truckers, farmers, and fishermen again raised concerns over record oil prices cutting into their earnings, hoping to have taxes lowered. In England, where fuel taxes were raised in October and are scheduled to rise again in April 2008, there was talk of protests and roadblocks if the tax issue was not addressed.[40]. This method of softening price shocks is even less viable to countries with much lower gas taxes, such as the United States.

The American Strategic Petroleum Reserve could, on its own, supply current U.S. demand for about a month in the event of an emergency, unless it were also destroyed or inaccessible in the emergency. This could potentially be the case if a major storm were to hit the Gulf of Mexico, where the reserve is located. While total consumption has increased,[41] the western economies are less reliant on oil than they were twenty-five years ago, due both to substantial growth in productivity and the growth of sectors of the economy with little oil dependence such as finance and banking, retail, etc. The decline of heavy industry and manufacturing in most developed countries has reduced the amount of oil per unit GDP; however, since these items are imported anyway, there is less change in the oil dependence of industrialized countries than the direct consumption statistics indicate.

In the United States, for instance, each 1000 dollars in GDP required 2.4 barrels of oil in 1973 when adjusted for inflation, while this number had fallen to 1.15 by 2001.[42] For calendar 1981, United States oil consumption was 5,861,058,000 bbl[43] and GDP was $5,291.7 billion[44] (chain-volume 2000 dollars), a ratio of $902.86/bbl. In 2005, consumption was 7,539,370,000 bbl and GDP was $11048.6 billion, a ratio of $1465.45/bbl.

Oil's historically high ratio of Energy Returned on Energy Invested continues a significant decline. Despite the rapid increase in the price of oil, neither the stock markets nor the growth of the global economy have been noticeably affected. Arguably, inflation has increased; in the United States, inflation averaged 3.3% in 2005-2006, as compared to an average of 2.5% in the preceding 10-year period. [45] As a result, during this period the Federal Reserve has consistently increased interest rates to curb inflation.

Economists say that the substitution effect will spur demand for alternate energy sources, such as coal or liquified natural gas. For example, China and India are currently heavily investing in natural gas and coal liquefaction facilities. Nigeria is working on burning natural gas to produce electricity instead of simply flaring the gas, where all non-emergency gas flaring will be forbidden after 2008.[46][47] Outside the U.S., more than 50% of oil is consumed for stationary, non-transportation purposes such as electricity production where it is relatively easy to substitute natural gas for oil[48].

The increased price of oil also makes other, nonconventional sources of oil attractive to businesses. The most prominent example of this are the massive reserves of the Canadian tar sands. They are a far less cost-efficient source of heavy, low-grade oil than conventional crude, but with oil trading above $60/bbl, the tar sands have become very attractive to exploration and production companies. Recent months have seen billions of dollars invested in the tar (bitumen) sands.

Prior to the runup in fuel prices, many motorists opted for larger, less fuel-efficient sport utility vehicles and full-sized pickups in the United States, Canada and other countries. This trend is now reversing due to sustained high prices of fuel. The September 2005 sales data for all the vehicle vendors indicated SUV sales dropped while small cars sales increased compared with 2004 sales. There is also an ever increasing market for hybrid vehicles (e.g., Toyota Prius and Honda Civic Hybrid) and diesel engine vehicles (e.g., VW TDI and Mercedes-Benz E320 CDI) since they are more fuel efficient; since the 1973 energy crisis, the front-wheel drive passenger car has replaced rear-wheel drive as the preferred layout for energy efficient cars. There is increasing demand of "crossover" sport utilities (i.e., SUVs based on passenger car platforms) which are marginally more fuel efficient than traditionally heavier truck-based SUVs.

For the working class (those who are forced to sell their labor), those who have older vehicles averaging less than 20 MPG usually face several alternatives - commuting via public transportation (bus, rapid transit or light rail), carpooling, motorcycling, scootering, bicycling or walking and/or relocation into the inner city if one resides in suburban/exurban areas.

United States stock markets

File:XOI 3-year chart 2005-09-02.png
Three-year performance of the oil industry...
File:XOI 1-month chart 2005-09-02.png
...and one-month performance.

The increase in oil prices over two years was mirrored by an increase in stock values in the energy sector. Energy ETFs like XLE and OIH did well during the period, with XLE's price increases from $26 (01/01/2004) to $54 (3/2/2006), and OIH's price increases from $60 (01/01/2004) to $143(3/2/2006).

The value of the stock in companies such as Apache[49] and Conoco-Phillips[50] rose sharply during this period. These prices increased more rapidly toward the end of August, particularly after Hurricane Katrina.[51]

Wal-Mart shares continued their decrease in value that began with the increase in the oil prices. Over two years, stock in Wal-Mart dropped in value by 25% from $60 per share to under $45 per share.[52] Earlier in August, Wal-Mart announced that higher than expected oil prices cut into the corporation's profits for the 2nd quarter of 2005. Since oil prices after the end of the 2nd quarter continued to rise, 3rd quarter profits from Wal-Mart are expected to be small. Because Wal-Mart's distribution system relies on the customer to drive to a large discount big-box store, increases in the price of fuel might discourage some customers from making the trip as often. Wal-Mart, like all retailers, will also face higher shipping costs to get goods from the factory to the stores. This will likely cause inflationary pressures.

The effect of dollar value, exchange rates and metals

Because oil is almost always bought and sold in US dollars, even when this is not the currency of either vendor or buyer, it is easy to be confused by the movement of the dollar relative to other currencies. It is informative to contrast the price of oil against other currencies, and against other internationally traded non-perishable commodeties such as metals. This article [16] neatly illustrates this point, and provides European oil price graphs for the last 18 months or so against major currencies, and also the price of gold. It is apparent that some of the peaking could be seen as a symptom of a decline in the value of the US$, rather than high oil price per se. However, there is still a very clear upward trend visible in all currencies, although as the price of gold falls, it could be seen as a general devaluation of world economies. This European tribune article [17] includes a stacked plot, allowing the relative drift of the currencies to be seen as well as a general inflation of all currencies against the gold price. In a later graph, it also illustrates the fact that the price of those metals whose extraction is energy intensive (aluminium is the best example, as the ore is moved long distances for refining) have very nearly kept pace with an oil price that has gone up nearly 3-fold over 4 years.

Europa

In the developed countries of western Europe, the prices of transport fuels are made up of the price of the refined product, plus a substantial tax element, which can vary between roughly 2/3 and 3/4 of the total price. (in the UK nearly 70% of the price of a litre of petrol is made up of fuel duty and VAT. A doubling of the oil price would add perhaps 30% to the cost of fuel at the pump in the UK, if the duty was not changed.) These taxes are not harmonised, nor are different countries' budgets updated at the same time. As a consequence, people who live nearby will often find it worthwhile to drive over the border to fill up, despite the hassle and traffic congestion this causes. However, in general, by having a large tax fraction, governments have the benefit of some room for manoeuvre, to smooth sudden price shocks by relaxing and then slowly ramping back the fuel duties, and the population has lifestyles that are already well adapted to fuel prices that would appear very high to consumers in the USA (where the tax fraction is less than 20%). These two effects conspire to make European demand largely independent of the crude oil price, at least over short periods of a few years. The high prices also stimulate interest in hybrid cars and alternative fuels, as well as encouraging the use of public transport in cities. At the same time, US consumers are still buying large, inefficient vehicles and living farther and farther from urban centers in suburbia/exurbia.[citation needed]

Asia Pacific region (excludes Australia)

The Pacific rim had been experiencing oil shortages on an ongoing basis prior to Hurricane Katrina. Some countries are increasing production of biofuels to offset the higher costs of oil.

Developing Countries

High oil prices are likely to first affect less affluent countries, particularly the developing world, with less discretionary income. There are fewer vehicles per capita, and oil is often used for electricity generation, as well as private transport. A world bank ESMAP report has looked more deeply at the effect of oil prices in the developing countries. [53]

Sub-Saharan Africa

High oil prices are hurting many countries in Africa, including Zimbabwe, Eritrea and Tanzania. High oil prices have created an oil supply instability, per barrel price instability or both. There are reports that this has led to fuel rationing being enacted in some cases.[54] Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa lack the foreign exchange reserves to purchase enough oil products at increasingly higher prices. These nations have little choice but to limit imports and/or ration their existing supplies.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez, came under increasing scrutiny as he began selling oil at lower-than-market prices to poor U.S. consumers, as heating oil, and to island nations in the Caribbean such as Cuba.[55] At the same time, Cuba has experienced electricity shortages.

Persian Gulf States and Eurasian Arab-Islamic regions

Some stock markets in the GCC, notably in Saudi Arabia and Dubai, experienced a boom, roughly 100% index increase in the Saudi stock market.[56] However, this boom was followed by a market crash. A number of planned projects to stir development, such as King Abdullah Economic City, have been proposed due to $29.3 billion surplus.[57] On May 1, 2006 Saudi Arabia lowered prices on all hydrocarbon fuels for local consumption; 95 octane gasoline costs .606 USD/gallon (fixed price).[58]

Notes

  1. ^ "BP Crude Oil Prices". Department of Energy. Excel spreadsheet.
  2. ^ "Oil reaches new record above $99". BBC. November 21 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-29. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  3. ^ Oil passes 100-dollar mark (Danish)
  4. ^ "What is driving oil prices so high?". BBC. November 5 2007. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  5. ^ "Record oil price sets the scene for $200 next year". AME. July 6 2006. Retrieved 2007-11-29. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  6. ^ "The Oil Drum". Retrieved 2007-11-29.
  7. ^ Mathew Maavak (April 21 2006). "Peak Oil and Political Economy of Terrorism". {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  8. ^ Tom Fowler, David Ivanovich and John C. Roper (August 31 2005). "Gasoline supply crimped". Houston Chronicle. Retrieved 2007-11-29. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  9. ^ "Appendix B. Explanatory Notes". International Petroleum Monthly. Energy Information Administration. October, 2007. {{cite journal}}: |access-date= requires |url= (help); Check date values in: |date= (help) Defines "oil supply".
  10. ^ "Table 1.4 World Oil Supply, 1997-Present". International Petroleum Monthly. Energy Information Administration. October, 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-30. {{cite journal}}: Check date values in: |date= (help) Excel spreadsheet.
  11. ^ "IHS Energy Acquires Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)". September 1 2004. Retrieved 2007-11-30. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  12. ^ "Transcript: Interview with IEA chief economist". Interview with Fatih Birol.
  13. ^ http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050714-thu.html#anchor2
  14. ^ http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/brochure/gas06/gasoline.htm
  15. ^ "Weekly U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices, Regular Grade". Retrieved 2006-09-26.
  16. ^ "Free UK Petrol Prices". Retrieved 2007-11-29.
  17. ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4664590.stm
  18. ^ http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
  19. ^ http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/07/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm
  20. ^ http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,206457,00.html
  21. ^ http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/index.html
  22. ^ http://www.angolapress-angop.ao/noticia-e.asp?ID=460075
  23. ^ http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/07/news/international/oil_alaska/index.htm
  24. ^ http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10008746.shtml
  25. ^ Despite drop in oil price, OPEC stick with targets. International Herald Tribune. September 11, 2006.
  26. ^ Calmer Weather Fuels Lower Gas Prices in Texas. San Antonio Business Journal. September 8, 2006.
  27. ^ Gas prices poised to drop further. Kevin G. Hall, The Associated Press. September 15, 2006. Last accessed September 22, 2006.
  28. ^ Oil flops to seven-month low, below US$59 Reuters, CNNMoney.com, October 3, 2006. Last accessed October 3, 2006.
  29. ^ "OPEC moves against falling oil prices", Reuters via USA Today, 20 October 2006
  30. ^ http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
  31. ^ Oil prices touch above $90 level, BBC News
  32. ^ Supply fears push oil above $92
  33. ^ [1], CNN News
  34. ^ Single trader behind oil record - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7169543.stm
  35. ^ "IEA says oil prices will stay 'very high,' threatening global growth" article by James Kanter in the International Herald Tribune October 31, 2007
  36. ^ "OPEC Finds Price Range to Live With" A "news analysis" piece by Jad Mouawad in The New York Times December 6, 2007
  37. ^ "Oil-Rich Nations Use More Energy, Cutting Exports" news analysis by Clifford Krauss in The New York Times December 9, 2007
  38. ^ Barry James (September 12, 2000). "Amid Protests, Europe's Leaders Resist Oil-Tax Cut". International Herald Tribune.
  39. ^ Paul Meller (June 3, 2004). "EU states to avoid unilateral oil tax cuts". International Herald Tribune.
  40. ^ James Kanter (November 9, 2007). "European politicians wrestle with high gasoline prices". International Herald Tribune.
  41. ^ [2]
  42. ^ http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/pdf/pages/sec1_16.pdf
  43. ^ [3]
  44. ^ [4]
  45. ^ [5]
  46. ^ http://www.tribune.com.ng/20062006/eog.html
  47. ^ http://www.climatelaw.org/media/gas.flaring/report/section5
  48. ^ http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/demand_text.htm
  49. ^ [6]
  50. ^ [7]
  51. ^ [8]
  52. ^ [9]
  53. ^ [10]
  54. ^ [11]
  55. ^ [12]
  56. ^ [13]
  57. ^ [14]
  58. ^ [15]
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