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{{Short description|none}}
{{Short description|none}}
{{for|related races|2024 United States Senate elections}}
{{for|related races|2024 United States Senate elections}}
{{Distinguish|2024 Pennsylvania Senate election}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=May 2023}}
{{Use mdy dates|date=May 2023}}
{{Use American English|date=March 2023}}
{{Use American English|date=March 2023}}
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}}
}}
{{ElectionsPA}}
{{ElectionsPA}}
The '''2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania''' will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the [[United States Senate]] to represent the state of [[Pennsylvania]]. [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]] incumbent [[Bob Casey Jr.]] is seeking a fourth term.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/bob-casey-pennsylvania-reelection/index.html | title=Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024 &#124; CNN Politics | website=[[CNN]] | date=April 10, 2023}}</ref> He is being challenged by [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] businessman [[David McCormick]]. Primary elections took place on April 23, 2024.<ref>{{Cite web |title=2024 State Primary Election Dates |url=https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2024-state-primary-election-dates |access-date=2023-05-13 |website=www.ncsl.org}}</ref>
The '''2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania''' will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the [[United States Senate]] to represent the state of [[Pennsylvania]]. [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]] incumbent [[Bob Casey Jr.]] is seeking a fourth term.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/bob-casey-pennsylvania-reelection/index.html | title=Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024 &#124; CNN Politics | website=[[CNN]] | date=April 10, 2023}}</ref> He is being challenged by [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] businessman [[David McCormick]]. Primary elections took place on April 23, 2024.<ref>{{Cite web |title=2024 State Primary Election Dates |url=https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2024-state-primary-election-dates |access-date=2023-05-13 |website=www.ncsl.org}}</ref> The election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.<ref>{{cite web |title=The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024 |website=[[CNN]] |date=July 20, 2024 |url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/20/politics/senate-race-rankings-july-2024/index.html}}</ref>


{{toclimit|3}}
{{toclimit|3}}
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;Statewide officials
;Statewide officials
*[[Josh Shapiro]], [[Governor of Pennsylvania]] (2023–present)<ref name=postgaz />
*[[Josh Shapiro]], [[Governor of Pennsylvania]] (2023–present)<ref name=postgaz />
*[[Gretchen Whitmer]], [[Governor of Michigan]] (2019-present)<ref>{{Cite web |last=Staff |first=A. O. L. |date=2024-05-17 |title=Whitmer’s Fight Like Hell PAC releases initial Senate endorsements |url=https://www.aol.com/news/whitmer-fight-hell-pac-releases-140720296.html |access-date=2024-06-14 |website=www.aol.com |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Gretchen Whitmer]], [[Governor of Michigan]] (2019-present)<ref>{{Cite web |last=Staff |first=A. O. L. |date=2024-05-17 |title=Whitmer's Fight Like Hell PAC releases initial Senate endorsements |url=https://www.aol.com/news/whitmer-fight-hell-pac-releases-140720296.html |access-date=2024-06-14 |website=www.aol.com |language=en-US}}</ref>
;Individuals
;Individuals
*[[Harry Dunn (police officer)|Harry Dunn]], former [[U.S. Capitol Police]] officer<ref>{{cite news |last1=Kurtz |first1=Josh |title=Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks |url=https://marylandmatters.org/briefs/dunns-new-pac-backs-10-democratic-senate-candidates-including-alsobrooks/ |website=Maryland Matters |publisher=Maryland Matters |access-date=11 July 2024 |date=July 10, 2024}}</ref>
*[[Harry Dunn (police officer)|Harry Dunn]], former [[U.S. Capitol Police]] officer<ref>{{cite news |last1=Kurtz |first1=Josh |title=Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks |url=https://marylandmatters.org/briefs/dunns-new-pac-backs-10-democratic-senate-candidates-including-alsobrooks/ |website=Maryland Matters |publisher=Maryland Matters |access-date=11 July 2024 |date=July 10, 2024}}</ref>
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;Organizations
;Organizations
*[[American Israel Public Affairs Committee]] (AIPAC)<ref name=aipac>{{Cite web |url=https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/ |title=Support Pro-Israel Candidates |access-date=2023-11-21 |website=[[AIPAC]] PAC}}</ref>
*[[American Israel Public Affairs Committee]] (AIPAC)<ref name=aipac>{{Cite web |url=https://candidates.aipacpac.org/page/featured/ |title=Support Pro-Israel Candidates |access-date=2023-11-21 |website=[[AIPAC]] PAC}}</ref>
*[[CASA de Maryland|CASA in Action]]<ref>{{cite press release |title=CASA in Action Announces 2024 General Election Endorsements for Pennsylvania Races |url=https://casainaction.org/pressroom/casa-in-action-announces-2024-general-election-endorsements-for-pennsylvania-races/ |access-date=September 1, 2024 |work=CASA in Action |date=August 20, 2024}}</ref>
*[[Council for a Livable World]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=Senate Candidates |url=https://livableworld.org/meet-the-candidates/senate-candidates/ |access-date=2024-01-26 |website=Council for a Livable World |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Council for a Livable World]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=Senate Candidates |url=https://livableworld.org/meet-the-candidates/senate-candidates/ |access-date=2024-01-26 |website=Council for a Livable World |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Democratic Majority for Israel]]<ref name="DMFI 5/20">{{cite news |last1=Fernandez |first1=Madison |title=Pro-Israel group boosts Democrats in battleground races |url=https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/05/20/congress/pro-israel-groups-dem-battleground-endorsements-00158859 |access-date=May 20, 2024 |work=[[Politico]] |date=May 20, 2024}}</ref>
*[[Democratic Majority for Israel]]<ref name="DMFI 5/20">{{cite news |last1=Fernandez |first1=Madison |title=Pro-Israel group boosts Democrats in battleground races |url=https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/05/20/congress/pro-israel-groups-dem-battleground-endorsements-00158859 |access-date=May 20, 2024 |work=[[Politico]] |date=May 20, 2024}}</ref>
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*[[Giffords]]<ref name="gif">{{Cite web |date=2023-11-14 |title=GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to the US Senate |url=https://giffords.org/press-release/2023/11/giffords-pac-endorses-bob-casey-for-reelection-to-the-us-senate/|access-date=2023-10-15 |website=Giffords |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Giffords]]<ref name="gif">{{Cite web |date=2023-11-14 |title=GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Bob Casey for Reelection to the US Senate |url=https://giffords.org/press-release/2023/11/giffords-pac-endorses-bob-casey-for-reelection-to-the-us-senate/|access-date=2023-10-15 |website=Giffords |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Harvard University|Harvard]] [[College Democrats of America|College Democrats]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨ |url=https://www.instagram.com/p/C3ECqUUOqnn/?ig_rid=6c03b0cb-4019-45dc-83b5-8586e9ce8802&img_index=1 |access-date=2024-02-08 |website=www.instagram.com}}</ref>
*[[Harvard University|Harvard]] [[College Democrats of America|College Democrats]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨ |url=https://www.instagram.com/p/C3ECqUUOqnn/?ig_rid=6c03b0cb-4019-45dc-83b5-8586e9ce8802&img_index=1 |access-date=2024-02-08 |website=www.instagram.com}}</ref>
*[[Human Rights Campaign]]<ref>{{cite web |title=Human Rights Campaign Endorses Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey for Reelection |url=https://www.hrc.org/press-releases/human-rights-campaign-endorses-pennsylvania-sen-bob-casey-for-reelection |website=Human Rights Campaign |access-date=August 14, 2024 |date=14 August 2024}}</ref>
*[[Humane Society of the United States#Humane Society Legislative Fund|Humane Society Legislative Fund]]<ref name="HSLF">{{Cite web |title=2024 Endorsements |url=https://elections.hslf.org/ |access-date=2024-02-16 |website=2024 Endorsements |language=en}}</ref>
*[[Humane Society of the United States#Humane Society Legislative Fund|Humane Society Legislative Fund]]<ref name="HSLF">{{Cite web |title=2024 Endorsements |url=https://elections.hslf.org/ |access-date=2024-02-16 |website=2024 Endorsements |language=en}}</ref>
*[[Jewish Democratic Council of America]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements |url=https://jewishdems.org/press_release/jdca-announces-first-round-of-2024-senate-endorsements-five-incumbents-in-competitive-races/ |access-date=2023-08-25 |website=Jewish Democratic Council of America |language=en-US}}</ref>
*[[Jewish Democratic Council of America]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements |url=https://jewishdems.org/press_release/jdca-announces-first-round-of-2024-senate-endorsements-five-incumbents-in-competitive-races/ |access-date=2023-08-25 |website=Jewish Democratic Council of America |language=en-US}}</ref>
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==Third parties==
==Third parties==
===Constitution Party===
===Libertarian convention===
====Nominee====
====Nominee====
*Bernard Selker, truck driver<ref name=3p>{{cite news |title=Third-party candidates file to run for president, US Senate in Pennsylvania |url=https://www.pennlive.com/politics/2024/08/third-party-candidates-file-to-run-for-president-us-senate-in-pennsylvania.html |access-date=2 August 2024 |work=PennLIVE Patriot-News |agency=The Associated Press |date=August 1, 2024}}</ref>
*John Thomas, educator<ref name=jthomas>{{Cite news |first1=Jacob |last1=Deemer |title=Armstrong County Man Launches U.S. Senate Campaign |url=https://www.exploreclarion.com/politics/2024/04/11/armstrong-county-man-launches-u-s-senate-campaign-813167/ |access-date=April 14, 2024 |publisher=exploreClarion |date=April 11, 2024}}</ref>

====Eliminated at convention====
*Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, nominee for U.S. Senate in [[2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania|2022]], and candidate for president in [[2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries|2020]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=Nominations for Statewide Offices |url=https://www.facebook.com/LibertarianPartyOfPennsylvania/videos/1397538487625282 |access-date=April 14, 2024 |publisher=[[Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania]] |date=March 2, 2024}}</ref>


===Green Party===
===Green Party===
====Nominee====
====Nominee====
*Leila Hazou, business owner<ref name=3p />
*Leila Hazou, shop owner<ref name=3p />


===American Solidarity Party===
===Constitution Party===
====Nominee====
====Nominee====
*Bernard Selker, truck driver<ref name=3p>{{cite news |title=Third-party candidates file to run for president, US Senate in Pennsylvania |url=https://www.pennlive.com/politics/2024/08/third-party-candidates-file-to-run-for-president-us-senate-in-pennsylvania.html |access-date=2 August 2024 |work=PennLIVE Patriot-News |agency=The Associated Press |date=August 1, 2024}}</ref>

===American Solidarity Party===
====Disqualified====
*Erik Messina<ref>{{Cite web |title=PA Voter Services |url=https://www.pavoterservices.pa.gov/ElectionInfo/CandidateInfo.aspx?ID=22264 |access-date=2024-08-02 |website=www.pavoterservices.pa.gov}}</ref>
*Erik Messina<ref>{{Cite web |title=PA Voter Services |url=https://www.pavoterservices.pa.gov/ElectionInfo/CandidateInfo.aspx?ID=22264 |access-date=2024-08-02 |website=www.pavoterservices.pa.gov}}</ref>

===Libertarian convention===
====Nominee====
*John Thomas, educator<ref name=jthomas>{{Cite news |first1=Jacob |last1=Deemer |title=Armstrong County Man Launches U.S. Senate Campaign |url=https://www.exploreclarion.com/politics/2024/04/11/armstrong-county-man-launches-u-s-senate-campaign-813167/ |access-date=April 14, 2024 |publisher=exploreClarion |date=April 11, 2024}}</ref>

====Eliminated at convention====
*Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, nominee for U.S. Senate in [[2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania|2022]], and candidate for president in [[2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries|2020]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=Nominations for Statewide Offices |url=https://www.facebook.com/LibertarianPartyOfPennsylvania/videos/1397538487625282 |access-date=April 14, 2024 |publisher=[[Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania]] |date=March 2, 2024}}</ref>


== General election ==
== General election ==
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! colspan="4" |<small>Source: [[Federal Election Commission]]<ref name="FEC">{{cite web |title=2024 Election United States Senate - Pennsylvania |url=https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/senate/PA/2024/ |website=fec.gov |publisher=[[Federal Election Commission]] |access-date=July 19, 2024}}</ref></small>
! colspan="4" |<small>Source: [[Federal Election Commission]]<ref name="FEC">{{cite web |title=2024 Election United States Senate - Pennsylvania |url=https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/senate/PA/2024/ |website=fec.gov |publisher=[[Federal Election Commission]] |access-date=July 19, 2024}}</ref></small>
|}
|}

===Debates===
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"
|+ 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania debates<ref>{{cite news |last1=Ulrich |first1=Steve |title=Casey, McCormick Agree to October Debate |url=https://www.politicspa.com/casey-mccormick-agree-to-three-october-debates/138777/ |access-date=5 September 2024 |work=PoliticsPA |date=September 4, 2024}}</ref>
|- style="font-size:small;"
!scope="col"| {{abbr|No.|Number}}
!scope="col"| Date
!scope="col"| Host
!scope="col"| Moderator
!scope="col"| Link
!scope="col" colspan="5"| Participants
|-
!colspan="5" rowspan="2" |<!--
-->{{Colors|black|#90ff90|&nbsp;P&nbsp;}} <small>Participant &nbsp;</small><!--
-->{{Colors|black|#ff9090|&nbsp;A&nbsp;}} <small>Absent &nbsp;</small><!--
-->{{Colors|black|#A2B2C2|&nbsp;N&nbsp;}} <small>Non-invitee &nbsp;</small><!--
-->{{Colors|black|#CCFFCC|&nbsp;I&nbsp;}} <small>Invitee<!--
-->{{color box|#f0e68c|W}} Withdrawn</small>
! scope="col" style="background:{{party color|Democratic Party (United States)}}"|
! scope="col" style="background:{{party color|Republican Party (United States)}}"|
|-
!scope="col"| Casey
!scope="col"| McCormick
|- style="background:#fff; font-size:small;"
!scope="row"| 1
|style="white-space:nowrap;"| October 3, 2024
|style="white-space:nowrap;"| [[WHTM-TV]]
|style="white-space:nowrap;"| Dennis Owens
|style="white-space:nowrap;"|
| {{Yes|'''I'''}}
| {{Yes|'''I'''}}
|}

===Polling===
===Polling===
;Aggregate polls
;Aggregate polls
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|-
|-
|[https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/pennsylvania/mccormick-vs-casey RCP]
|[https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/pennsylvania/mccormick-vs-casey RCP]
|June 29 – August 8, 2024
|August 8-29, 2024
|August 10, 2024
|September 4, 2024
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''49.1%'''
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48.0%'''
||42.1%
||45.0%
|8.8%
|7.0%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''Casey Jr. +7.0'''
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''Casey Jr. +3.0'''
|}
|}
{| class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;"
{| class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;"
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! Undecided
! Undecided
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/65fc824cf835683ce2d3549b/66ba4069b73a13894a56414d_Independent%20Center%20-%20Battleground%20States%20Poll%202024.pdf The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=Poll sponsored by The Independent Center}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Times_SAY24_20240904_state_poll_results.pdf#page=158 YouGov]{{efn-ua|name=times}}
|August 8-11, 2024
|August 23 – September 3, 2024
|1,000 (RV)
|± 3.6%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''52%'''
|41%
|–
|8%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/politics/cnn-polls-battleground-states/index.html CNN/SRSS]
| August 23–29, 2024
|789 (LV)
|± 4.7%
|'''46%'''
|'''46%'''
|7%{{efn|"Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%}}
|1%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-12-15-august-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies]{{Efn-ua|name=telegraph}}
| August 25–28, 2024
|1,071 (LV)
|± 2.8%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''44%'''
|38%
|4%{{Efn|Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%}}
|14%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-election-in-swing-states/ Emerson College]{{Efn-ua|name=Hill}}
| data-sort-value="2024-08-29" |August 25–28, 2024
|950 (LV)
|± 3.1%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%'''
|44%
|–
|8%
|-
|rowspan=2; style="text-align:left;"|[https://substack.com/inbox/post/148067056?r=4aupgp SoCal Strategies (R)]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.}}
|rowspan="2"|August 23, 2024
|713 (LV)
|–
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''47%'''
|41%
|–
|12%
|-
|800 (RV)
|–
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''45%'''
|40%
|–
|15%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.activote.net/casey-has-significantly-lead-in-pennsylvania/ ActiVote]
| data-sort-value="2024-08-26" |August 3-23, 2024
|400 (LV)
|± 4.9%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''55%'''
|45%
|–
|–
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://pinpointpolicyinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Blue-Wall-States-Survey-Slides.pdf Fabrizio Ward]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute}}
|August 19–21, 2024
|400 (LV)
|± 4.9%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''46%'''
|43%
|–
|11%
|-
|rowspan=2; style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Cygnal-PA-Statewide-Deck-Public-AUG24.pdf Cygnal (R)]
|rowspan="2"|August 14–15, 2024
|rowspan="2"|800 (LV)
|rowspan="2"|± 3.4%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''46%'''
|42%
|–
|12%
|-
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''42%'''
|38%
|7%{{efn|Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%}}
|13%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-12-15-august-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies]{{Efn-ua|name=telegraph|Poll sponsored by ''[[The Daily Telegraph]]''}}
| data-sort-value="2024-08-19" |August 12–15, 2024
|825 (LV)
|± 3.18%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''44%'''
|36%
|1%{{Efn|Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%}}
|17%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-49-harris-48/ Emerson College]
|August 13–14, 2024
|1,000 (LV)
|± 3.0%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%'''
|44%
|–
|8%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/pa/pa08142024_ppuf30.pdf Quinnipiac University]
|August 8–12, 2024
|1,738 (LV)
|± 2.4%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''52%'''
|44%
|–
|3%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/65fc824cf835683ce2d3549b/66ba4069b73a13894a56414d_Independent%20Center%20-%20Battleground%20States%20Poll%202024.pdf The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=IC|Poll sponsored by the Independent Center}}
|August 8–11, 2024
|500 (RV)
|500 (RV)
|± 4.38%
|± 4.38%
Line 383: Line 530:
|–
|–
|10%
|10%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25042734/fm-august-poll.pdf Franklin & Marshall College]
| data-sort-value="2024-08-15" |July 21 – August 11, 2024
|920 (RV)
|± 3.8%
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''48%'''
|36%
|3%{{efn|"Some other candidate" with 3%}}
|1%
|-
|-
|rowspan=2; style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/10/us/elections/times-siena-poll-pennsylvania-toplines.html NYT/Siena College]
|rowspan=2; style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/10/us/elections/times-siena-poll-pennsylvania-toplines.html NYT/Siena College]
Line 401: Line 557:
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-31-july-3-august-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies]{{Efn-ua|name=telegraph|Poll sponsored by ''[[The Daily Telegraph]]''}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-31-july-3-august-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies]{{Efn-ua|name=telegraph|Poll sponsored by ''[[The Daily Telegraph]]''}}
| data-sort-value="2024-08-06" |July 31–August 3, 2024
| data-sort-value="2024-08-06" |July 31 – August 3, 2024
|743 (LV)
|743 (LV)
|± 3.38%
|± 3.38%
Line 408: Line 564:
|2%{{Efn|John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%}}
|2%{{Efn|John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%}}
|12%
|12%
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/democrats-maintain-edge-new-senate-polls-nevada BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)]{{Efn-ua|name=CPR|Poll sponsored by [[The Cook Political Report]]}}
| data-sort-value="2024-08-15" |July 26 – August 2, 2024
|411 (LV)
|–
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|'''53%'''
|40%
|–
|7%
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Susquehanna_Statewide_July_28_2024.pdf Susquehanna Polling<br>and Research (R)]
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Susquehanna_Statewide_July_28_2024.pdf Susquehanna Polling<br>and Research (R)]
Line 428: Line 593:
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls-harris-trails-trump-in-arizona-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-tied-in-wisconsin/ Emerson College]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by ''[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]'' and [[Nexstar]]}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls-harris-trails-trump-in-arizona-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-tied-in-wisconsin/ Emerson College]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by ''[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]'' and [[Nexstar]]}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-25" |July 22-23, 2024
| data-sort-value="2024-07-25" |July 22–23, 2024
|850 (RV)
|850 (RV)
|± 3.3%
|± 3.3%
Line 436: Line 601:
|8%
|8%
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BTopd55Mr-uiOfZ_0booFKcstbNry-Ku/view SoCal Research]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by On Point Politics}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BTopd55Mr-uiOfZ_0booFKcstbNry-Ku/view SoCal Research (R)]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by On Point Politics}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 20-21, 2024
| data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 20–21, 2024
|500 (LV)
|500 (LV)
|± 4.4%
|± 4.4%
Line 446: Line 611:
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000 Public Policy Polling (D)]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000 Public Policy Polling (D)]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-19" |July 17-18, 2024
| data-sort-value="2024-07-19" |July 17–18, 2024
|624 (RV)
|624 (RV)
|± 3.8%
|± 3.8%
Line 455: Line 620:
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-16-18-july-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies]{{Efn-ua|name=telegraph}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-16-18-july-2024/ Redfield & Wilton Strategies]{{Efn-ua|name=telegraph}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 16-18, 2024
| data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 16–18, 2024
|688 (LV)
|688 (LV)
|–
|–
Line 464: Line 629:
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yS9Jqk2ZupZxw3VGK5UPDrG8AC4G7X06/view Public Policy Polling (D)]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11-12, 2024
| data-sort-value="2024-07-22" |July 11–12, 2024
|537 (RV)
|537 (RV)
|–
|–
Line 522: Line 687:
|12%
|12%
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/2024/07/02/survey-support-bipartisanship-pa-budget-process/ The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=Commonwealth Foundation|Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation.}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/2024/07/02/survey-support-bipartisanship-pa-budget-process/ The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=CG}}
| data-sort-value="2024-07-03" |June 14–19, 2024
| data-sort-value="2024-07-03" |June 14–19, 2024
|800 (RV)
|800 (RV)
Line 574: Line 739:
|12%
|12%
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/why-senate-democrats-are-running-strong-even Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/<br>GS Strategy Group (D)]
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/why-senate-democrats-are-running-strong-even BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)]{{efn-ua|name=CPR}}
| data-sort-value="2024-05-23" |May 6–13, 2024
| data-sort-value="2024-05-23" |May 6–13, 2024
|730 (LV)
|730 (LV)
Line 583: Line 748:
|10%
|10%
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html NYT/Siena College]{{efn-ua|name=PI|Poll sponsored by the [[Philadelphia Inquirer]].}}
|style="text-align:left;" rowspan="2"|[https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html NYT/Siena College]{{efn-ua|name=PI|Poll sponsored by ''[[The Philadelphia Inquirer]]''}}
|rowspan="2"|April 28 – May 9, 2024
|rowspan="2"|April 28 – May 9, 2024
|1,023 (RV)
|1,023 (RV)
Line 608: Line 773:
|8%
|8%
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/trump-holds-edge-over-biden-in-seven-key-swing-state-polls/ Emerson College]{{efn-ua|name=hill|Poll sponsored by ''[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]''}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://emersoncollegepolling.com/trump-holds-edge-over-biden-in-seven-key-swing-state-polls/ Emerson College]{{efn-ua|name=Hill}}
|April 25–29, 2024
|April 25–29, 2024
|1,000 (RV)
|1,000 (RV)
Line 635: Line 800:
|9%
|9%
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://independentcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Independent-Center-Target-State-Poll-2024-Pennsylvania.pdf The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Independent Center}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://independentcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Independent-Center-Target-State-Poll-2024-Pennsylvania.pdf The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=IC}}
| data-sort-value="2024-04-19" |March 29 – April 3, 2024
| data-sort-value="2024-04-19" |March 29 – April 3, 2024
|600 (RV)
|600 (RV)
Line 662: Line 827:
|15%
|15%
|-
|-
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Common-Ground-in-the-Commonwealth-Q1-2024-Survey-Analysis-Updated.pdf The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Common-Ground-in-the-Commonwealth-Q1-2024-Survey-Analysis-Updated.pdf The Bullfinch Group]{{Efn-ua|name=CG}}
| data-sort-value="2024-04-9" |March 22–26, 2024
| data-sort-value="2024-04-9" |March 22–26, 2024
|800 (RV)
|800 (RV)
Line 708: Line 873:
|-
|-


|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politicspa.com/memo-mccormick-down-to-casey-but-far-from-out/132043/ Public Opinion Strategies (R)]{{Efn-ua|Poll commissioned for David McCormick|name=CF}}
|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.politicspa.com/memo-mccormick-down-to-casey-but-far-from-out/132043/ Public Opinion Strategies (R)]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign|name=CF}}
|January 22–25, 2024
|January 22–25, 2024
|800 (LV)
|800 (LV)
Line 855: Line 1,020:
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Libertarian Party (United States)|candidate=John Thomas|votes=|percentage=|change=}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Libertarian Party (United States)|candidate=John Thomas|votes=|percentage=|change=}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Green Party (US)|candidate=Leila Hazou|votes=|percentage=|change=}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Green Party (US)|candidate=Leila Hazou|votes=|percentage=|change=}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Constitution Party (US)|candidate=Bernard Selker|votes=|percentage=|change=}}{{Election box candidate with party link|party=American Solidarity Party|candidate=Erik Messina|votes=|percentage=|change=}}
{{Election box candidate with party link|party=Constitution Party (US)|candidate=Bernard Selker|votes=|percentage=|change=}}
{{Election box total|votes=|percentage=}}
{{Election box total|votes=|percentage=}}
{{Election box end}}
{{Election box end}}

Revision as of 03:11, 6 September 2024

For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 Pennsylvania Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. David McCormick
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic



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The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. is seeking a fourth term.[1] He is being challenged by Republican businessman David McCormick. Primary elections took place on April 23, 2024.[2] The election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[3]

Background

Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won a U.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in 2016.[4][5][6][7]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points and in 2018 by 13 percentage points.[8][9][10]

The race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Casey to be the slight favorite to win.[11]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Endorsements

Bob Casey Jr.
Executive officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D) $23,790,263 $12,391,802 $11,886,480
Source: Federal Election Commission[48]

Results

Democratic primary results[49]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent) 1,024,545 100.00%
Total votes 1,024,545 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Disqualified

  • Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate[52]

Declined

Endorsements

David McCormick
Executive Branch officials
Federal officials
State cabinet officials
U.S senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
Local officials
  • Sam DeMarco, at-large Allegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present)[70]
Party officials
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Dave McCormick (R) $11,052,879 $4,660,701 $6,399,998
Source: Federal Election Commission[48]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kathy
Barnette 		Doug
Mastriano 		David
McCormick 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) March 9–10, 2023 616 (LV) - 11% 39% 21% 29%
- - 42% 28% 29%

Results

Republican primary results[79]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David McCormick 878,320 100.00%
Total votes 878,320 100.00%

Third parties

Libertarian convention

Nominee

  • John Thomas, educator[80]

Eliminated at convention

  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, and candidate for president in 2020[81]

Green Party

Nominee

  • Leila Hazou, shop owner[82]

Constitution Party

Nominee

  • Bernard Selker, truck driver[82]

American Solidarity Party

Disqualified

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[84] Lean D November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[85] Tilt D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] Lean D June 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[87] Lean D June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[88] Likely D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[89] Lean D November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[90] Tossup August 5, 2024

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Bob Casey (D) $31,831,903 $23,893,851 $8,426,069
David McCormick (R) $18,063,787[b] $9,799,118 $8,272,490
Source: Federal Election Commission[48]

Debates

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania debates[91]
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Casey McCormick
1 October 3, 2024 WHTM-TV Dennis Owens I I

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		David
McCormick (R) 		Undecided
[c] 		Margin
RCP August 8-29, 2024 September 4, 2024 48.0% 45.0% 7.0% Casey Jr. +3.0
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		David
McCormick (R) 		Other Undecided
YouGov[A] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 41% - 8%
CNN/SRSS August 23–29, 2024 789 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 46% 7%[d] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[B] August 25–28, 2024 1,071 (LV) ± 2.8% 44% 38% 4%[e] 14%
Emerson College[C] August 25–28, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 44% - 8%
SoCal Strategies (R)[D] August 23, 2024 713 (LV) - 47% 41% - 12%
800 (RV) - 45% 40% - 15%
ActiVote August 3-23, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 55% 45% - -
Fabrizio Ward[E] August 19–21, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 43% - 11%
Cygnal (R) August 14–15, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 42% - 12%
42% 38% 7%[f] 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[B] August 12–15, 2024 825 (LV) ± 3.18% 44% 36% 1%[g] 17%
Emerson College August 13–14, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% - 8%
Quinnipiac University August 8–12, 2024 1,738 (LV) ± 2.4% 52% 44% - 3%
The Bullfinch Group[F] August 8–11, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.38% 51% 39% - 10%
Franklin & Marshall College July 21 – August 11, 2024 920 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 36% 3%[h] 1%
NYT/Siena College August 6–9, 2024 693 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 36% - 14%
693 (LV) ± 4.2% 51% 37% - 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[B] July 31 – August 3, 2024 743 (LV) ± 3.38% 45% 40% 2%[i] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[G] July 26 – August 2, 2024 411 (LV) - 53% 40% - 7%
Susquehanna Polling
and Research (R) 		July 22–28, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% - 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[B] July 22–24, 2024 851 (LV) ± 3.08% 46% 39% 4%[j] 11%
Emerson College[H] July 22–23, 2024 850 (RV) ± 3.3% 48% 44% - 8%
SoCal Research (R)[I] July 20–21, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% - 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[J] July 17–18, 2024 624 (RV) ± 3.8% 50% 39% - 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[B] July 16–18, 2024 688 (LV) - 44% 37% 3%[k] 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[K] July 11–12, 2024 537 (RV) - 47% 44% - 9%
YouGov[A] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.4% 50% 38% 1% 11%
889 (LV) - 51% 39% 1% 9%
NYT/Siena College July 9–11, 2024 872 (RV) ± 3.7% 50% 39% - 10%
872 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 42% - 8%
Remington Research Group (R)[L] June 29 – July 1, 2024 601 (LV) - 49% 48% - 3%
Cygnal (R) June 27–28, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 42% - 12%
The Bullfinch Group[M] June 14–19, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 36% - 16%
Emerson College[C] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% - 12%
Marist College June 3–6, 2024 1,181 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 46% - 2%
Mainstreet Research/
Florida Atlantic University 		May 30–31, 2024 1,012 (RV) ± 3.1% 48% 40% 5% 7%
923 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 42% 3% 6%
KAConsulting (R)[N] May 15–19, 2024 600 (RV) - 47% 37% 4%[l] 12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[G] May 6–13, 2024 730 (LV) ± 3.6% 49% 41% - 10%
NYT/Siena College[O] April 28 – May 9, 2024 1,023 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 41% - 13%
1,023 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 44% - 10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[P] 		April 24–30, 2024 1,398 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% - 8%
Emerson College[C] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 42% - 12%
CBS News/YouGov April 19–25, 2024 1,306 (LV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% - 15%
Muhlenberg College April 15–25, 2024 417 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 41% 5% 9%
The Bullfinch Group[F] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% 9% 8%
National Public Affairs March 2024 759 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 28% - 40%
Franklin & Marshall College March 20–31, 2024 431 (RV) ± 5.7% 46% 39% - 15%
The Bullfinch Group[M] March 22–26, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 30% 8% 15%
Emerson College March 10–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% - -
Susquehanna Polling
& Research 		February 27 – March 7, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 48% 42% - 10%
Emerson College February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 39% - 13%
Chism Strategies February 6–8, 2024 500 (RV) ± 5.0% 38% 37% - 25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[Q] January 22–25, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 40% - 12%
Franklin & Marshall College January 17–28, 2023 1,006 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 35% 4% 14%
Susquehanna Polling
& Research (R) 		January 15–21, 2024 745 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 42% 3% 9%
Quinnipiac University January 4–8, 2024 1,680 (RV) ± 2.4% 53% 43% 1%[m] 2%
Common Ground (R)[M] December 8–12, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 27% 13%[n] 20%
Change Research (D)[R] December 3–7, 2023 2,532 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 41% 0% 15%
Franklin & Marshall College October 11–22, 2023 873 (RV) ± 4.1% 46% 39% 4% 12%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023 430 (RV) ± 4.7% 41% 33% 8% 18%
Quinnipiac University September 28 – October 2, 2023 1,725 (RV) ± 2.4% 50% 44% 2%[o] 4%
Susquehanna Polling
& Research (R) 		May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 1% 5%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% 0% 13%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% - 23%
Hypothetical polling
Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Doug
Mastriano (R) 		Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 31% 22%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent)
Republican David McCormick
Libertarian John Thomas
Green Leila Hazou
Constitution Bernard Selker
Total votes

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ $4,063,800 of this total was self-funded by McCormick
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ "Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
  5. ^ Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  6. ^ Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
  7. ^ Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  8. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  9. ^ John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  10. ^ John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  11. ^ Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
  12. ^ "Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  13. ^ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  14. ^ "None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  15. ^ "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  2. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Hill
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Independent Center
  7. ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  10. ^ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  13. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  14. ^ Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by The Philadelphia Inquirer
  16. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  17. ^ Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
  18. ^ Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

References

  1. ^ "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. April 10, 2023.
  2. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  3. ^ "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024". CNN. July 20, 2024.
  4. ^ "Pennsylvania 2020 presidential election results". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  5. ^ "Pennsylvania Governor Midterm Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
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  56. ^ Weaver, Al (May 25, 2023). "Doug Mastriano decides against launching Senate bid". The Hill.
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Official campaign websites
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