Real-estate bubble

This article is about the general phenomenon of housing bubbles. For housing bubbles in the United States, see U.S. housing bubble.

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The Economist magazine cover (16 June 2005) for the article "After the fall: Soaring house prices have given a huge boost to the world economy. What happens when they drop?".

A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid speculative increases in the valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels relative to incomes and other economic elements, followed by decreases (also known as a house price crash or a market correction) that can result in many owners holding negative equity (a mortgage debt higher than the value of the property). Just like any type of economic bubble, it is difficult for many to identify except in hindsight, after the crash.

The Economist magazine said that "the worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history" [1], and real estate bubbles are believed to exist in many parts of the world, especially in many areas of the United States, Great Britain, Australia property bubble, New Zealand, Ireland, Spain, and China property bubble. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in mid-2005 that "at a minimum, there's a little 'froth' (in the U.S. housing market) … it's hard not to see that there are a lot of local bubbles" [2]. The crash of the Japanese asset price bubble from 1990 on has been very damaging to the Japanese economy and the lives of many Japanese who have lived through it [3], as is also true of the recent crash of the real estate bubble in China's largest city, Shanghai [4].

Unlike a stock market crash following a bubble, a real-estate "crash" is usually a relatively slower process, because sellers just decide not to sell. Historically due to inflation, prices do not fall in nominal terms, rather they stay "flat" for a period of 3-5 years. In select markets though, housing prices have fallen in real and nominal dollars, such as Los Angeles during the late 80s and early 90s. Due to low inflation in most countries, future corrections may result in a fall in both real and nominal house values.

Other sectors such as office, hotel and retail generally move along with the residential market, being affected by many of same variables (incomes, interest rates, etc.) and also sharing the "wealth effect" of booms. Therefore this article focuses on housing bubbles and mentions other sectors only when their situation differs from housing.

Housing market indicators

UK House Prices between 1975 and 2006.

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Robert Shiller's plot of U.S. home prices, population, building costs, and bond yields (from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed. Princeton University Press). Shiller shows that inflation adjusted U.S. home prices increased 0.4% per year from 1890–2004, and 0.7% per year from 1940–2004, whereas U.S. census data from 1940–2004 shows that the self-assessed value increased 2% per year.

In attempting to identify bubbles before they burst, economists have developed a number of financial ratios and economic indicators that can be used to evaluate whether homes in a given area are fairly valued or not. By comparing current levels to previous levels that have proven unsustainable in the past (i.e. led to or at least accompanied crashes), one can make an educated guess as to whether a given real estate market is experiencing a bubble or not.

Indicators describe two interwoven aspects of housing bubble: a valuation component and a debt (or leverage) component. The valuation component measures how expensive houses are relative to what most people can afford, and the debt component measures how indebted households become in buying them for home or profit (and also how much exposure the banks accumulate by lending for them).

A basic summary of the progress of housing indicators for US cities is provided by Business Week [5]

See also: real estate economics.

Housing affordability measures

• The price to income ratio is the basic affordability measure for housing in a given area. It is generally the ratio of median house prices to median familial disposable incomes, expressed as a percentage or as years of income. It is sometimes compiled separately for first time buyers and termed attainability. This ratio, applied to individuals, is a basic component of mortgage lending decisions. [6].
  According to a back-of-the-envelope calculation by Goldman Sachs economists, a comparison of median home prices to median household income suggests that U.S. housing in 2005 is overvalued by 10%. "However, this estimate is based on an average mortgage rate of about 6%, and we expect rates to rise," the firm's economics team wrote in a recent report. According to Goldman's figures, a one-percentage-point rise in mortgage rates would reduce the fair value of home prices by 8%.
• The deposit to income ratio is the minimum required downpayment for a typical mortgage (definition of "typical" varies), expressed in months or years of income. It is especially important for first-time buyers without existing home equity; if the downpayment becomes too high then those buyers may find themselves "priced out" of the market. For example, as of 2004 this ratio was equal to one year of income in the UK (Nottingham Trent University paper).
  Another variant of this ratio measures the ratio of median family income to the income necessary to qualify for a typical mortgage or a typical home; this is what the National Association of Realtors calls the "housing affordability index" in its publications. [7]. (The NAR's methodology was criticized by some analysts as it does not account for inflation [8]). In either case, the usefulness of this ratio in identifying a bubble is debatable; while downpayments normally increase with house valuations, bank lending becomes increasingly lax during a bubble and mortgages are offered to borrowers who would not normally qualify for them (see Housing debt measures, below).

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Inflation-adjusted home home prices in Japan (1980–2005) compared to home price appreciation in the United States, Britain, and Australia (1995–2005).

Housing debt measures

• The housing debt to income ratio or debt-service ratio is the ratio of mortgage payments to disposable income. When the ratio gets too high, households become increasingly dependent on rising property values to service their debt. A variant of this indicator measures total home ownership costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, as a percentage of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income; for example see RBC Economics' reports for the Canadian markets (June 2, 2005 report).
• The housing debt to equity ratio (not to be confused with the corporate debt to equity ratio), also called loan to value, is the ratio of the mortgage debt to the value of the underlying property; it measures financial leverage. This ratio increases when homeowners refinance and tap into their home equity through a second mortgage or home equity loan. A ratio of 1 means 100% leverage; higher than 1 means negative equity.

Housing ownership and rent measures

• The ownership ratio is the proportion of households who own their homes as opposed to renting. It tends to rise steadily with incomes. Also, governments often enact measures such as tax cuts or subsidized financing to encourage and facilitate home ownership. If a rise in ownership is not supported by a rise in incomes, it can mean either that buyers are taking advantage of low interest rates (which must eventually rise again as the economy heats up) or that home loans are awarded more liberally, to borrowers with poor credit. Therefore a high ownership ratio combined with an increased rate of sub-prime lending may signal higher debt levels associated with bubbles.
• The price-to-earnings ratio or P/E ratio is the common metric used to assess the relative valuation of equities. To compute the P/E ratio for the case of a rented house, divide the price of the house by its potential earnings or net income, which is the market rent of the house minus expenses, which include maintenance and property taxes. This formula is:

${\mbox{House P/E ratio}}={\frac {\mbox{House price}}{{\mbox{Rent}}-{\mbox{Expenses}}}}$

The house price-to-earnings ratio provides a direct comparison to P/E ratios used to analyze other uses of the money tied up in a home. Compare this ratio to the simpler but less accurate price-rent ratio below.

• The price-rent ratio is the average cost of ownership divided by the received rent income (if buying to let) or the estimated rent that would be paid if renting (if buying to reside):

${\mbox{House Price-Rent ratio}}={\frac {\mbox{House price}}{\mbox{Rent}}}$

The latter is often measured using the "owner's equivalent rent" numbers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It can be viewed as the real estate equivalent of stocks' price-earnings ratio; in other terms it measures how much the buyer is paying for each 1$ of received rent income (or 1$ saved from rent spending). Rents, just like corporate and personal incomes, are generally tied very closely to supply and demand fundamentals; one rarely sees an unsustainable "rent bubble" (or "income bubble" for that matter). Therefore a rapid increase of home prices combined with a flat renting market can signal the onset of a bubble. The US price-rent ratio was 18% higher than its long-run average as of October 2004 (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco report).

• The occupancy rate (opposite: vacancy rate) is the number of occupied units divided by the total number of units in a given region (in commercial real estate, it is usually expressed terms of area such as square meters for different grades of buildings). A low occupancy rate means that the market is in a state of oversupply brought about by speculative construction and purchase. In this context, supply-and-demand numbers can be misleading: sales demand exceeds supply, but rent demand does not.

Current situation

As of 2006, several areas of the world are thought by some to be in a bubble state, although the subject is highly controversial; see:

• U.S. property bubble
• British property bubble
• Irish property bubble
• Japanese asset price bubble
• Spanish property bubble
• California property bubble
• Chinese property bubble
• Indian property bubble

References

• Barron's Magazine, "The Bubble's New Home", June 20, 2005. See also this blog.
• The Economist, December 8th, 2005, "Hear that hissing sound?."
• The Economist, June 16th, 2005, "After the fall."
• The Economist, June 16th, 2005, "In come the waves."
• The Economist, April 20th, 2005, "Will the walls come falling down?"
• The Economist, May 3d, 2005, "Still want to buy?"
• The Economist, May 29th, 2003, "House of cards."
• The Economist, May 28th, 2002, "Going through the roof."
• The New York Times, December 25th, 2005, Take It From Japan: Bubbles Hurt.
• Robert Kiyosaki (2000). Rich Dad, Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money—That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!, New York: Warner Business Books.
• Robert Kiyosaki (2005). All Booms Bust, History in the Making, All Booms Bust: Making Myself Clear.
• Burton R. Malkiel (2003). The Random Walk Guide to Investing: Ten Rules for Financial Success, New York: W. W. Norton and Company, Inc.
• Burton R. Malkiel (2004). A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 8th ed., New York: W. W. Norton and Company, Inc.
• John Allen Paulos (2003). A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market, New York: Basic Books.
• Robert J. Shiller (2005). Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed. Princeton University Press.
• John R. Talbott (2003). The Coming Crash in the Housing Market, New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc.
• Andrew Tobias (2005). The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need (updated ed.), Harcourt Brace and Company.
• Eric Tyson (2003). Personal Finance for Dummies, 4th ed., Foster City, CA: IDG Books.
• Benjamin Wallace-Wells, "There goes the neighborhood", Washington Monthly, 2004 April.
• Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Warren Tyagi (2003). The Two-Income Trap: Why Middle Class Mothers and Fathers are Going Broke, New York: Basic Books.

External links

• The global housing boom Interesting Economist article with a global perspective.
• Inflation-adjusted U.S. housing prices, 1975-Present
• California’s Real Estate Bubble by Fred E. Foldvary from a libertarian perspective.
• Center for Economic and Policy Research CEPR regularly releases reports on the U.S. Housing Bubble.
• www.housepricecrash.co.uk One of the best discussion forum sites on the net. Also many links to data for UK.