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Frequently asked questions

To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ.

Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?

A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.^[1]

Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?

A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."^[2]

Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?

A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,^[3]^[4] including academically trained ones,^[5]^[6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions.^[7] This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.^[8]
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.^[9]
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).^[10]

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?

A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum.

Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?

A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations.^[11] Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?

A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess.

Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂?

A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.

Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?

A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.^[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change.

Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?

A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.^[12] More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;^[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend.

Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?

A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."^[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?

A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties.

Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?

A12: Measurements show that it has not.^[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?

A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.^[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.^[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)^[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.^[18]

Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?

A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?

A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars.^[19] Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. [...] Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"^[20]
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change.^[21]^[22] This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.^[23]^[24]
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates.^[25] Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Wikipedia's own article.

Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?

A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data.^[26]^[27] Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?

A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction.

Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?

A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying.

Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?

A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?

A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them.

Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?

A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy.

Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?

A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept.

Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?

A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:^[28]

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step."^[29]

Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?

A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details.

References

^ ^a ^b Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
^ Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
^ Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
^ Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
^ The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
^ "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
^ Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
^ The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
^ "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}
^ Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
^ Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
^ Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
^ Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
^ Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
^ "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
^ Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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Sarah McBroom (March 27, 2007). "Conservapedia.com -- an encyclopedic message from the right". Scripps Howard News Service.
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Lawrence Solomon (July 8, 2008). "Wikipropaganda On Global Warming". CBS News.
"Topics that spark Wikipedia 'edit wars' revealed". BBC News. July 18, 2013.
Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies (August 15, 2015). "On Wikipedia, politically controversial science topics vulnerable to information sabotage". Science Daily.

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More causes of Global Warming

Ionospheric heater - system designed to heat a specific part of the atmosphere
- HAARP - capable of transmitting upto 4 GigaWatt of Radiation power into the atmosphere
- EISCAT - capable of transmitting upto 1 GigaWatt of Radiation power into the atmosphere
Microwave communications (EMF @ 300MHz - 300GHz) - heats molecules in the atmosphere & ocean through Dielectric heating, same way Microwave oven works, except it uses low power, thus needs a longer period to create the same amount of heat.
- mobile devices: 4G, 5G, etc.
- Satellite communications: Satellite Phone, GPS, Satellite Television
- radio communications, radar communications
Nuclear explosions (including Nuclear tests) - designed to cause damage through recessive heat/EMR, see Effects of nuclear explosions

--Ne0 (talk) 05:21, 12 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

None of these are in any way significant causes of GW William M. Connolley (talk) 09:54, 12 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Section 1.2 Warmest Years

In section 1.2 Warmest Years, it is stated that 15 of the 16 warmest years have occurred since 2000. This only goes through 2015. If a reliable source has come out with where 2016 fell temperature-wise, it might be useful to update this section to include 2016, stating that 16 of the 17 warmest years have occurred since 2000. I believe 2016 broke the record set in 2015, for warmest year on record. 2016's record was also affected by the 2015-16 Strong El Nino event, as 2015 was. (JasonPhelps (talk) 22:44, 12 January 2017 (UTC)).[reply]

Being only slightly into 2017, it is possible that data for 2016 has not yet been fully analyzed for various relevant sources, such as ocean temperature, surface temps, atmosphere temps, remote sensing data sources, etc. --OuroborosCobra (talk) 22:56, 12 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

As OC says the official stats are not out yet. We can afford to wait a few weeks. For a preview of what to expect see here, at "Year-to-date (January–November)". Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:13, 14 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Thank you for the link! Yes, it looks like December 2016 is not quite up yet. So, probably have to wait a few weeks to get 2016. JasonPhelps (talk) 04:54, 14 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

And now it's official.[1] Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:55, 19 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

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Hatnote

The hatnote must say "Anthropogenic climate change redirects here", otherwise the "also" doesn't make sense. 184.101.248.50 (talk) 14:10, 19 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Trump and global warming related websites disappearing

I've read that Donald Trump is forcing government scientists to keep quiet about global warming. Trump is also taking down government sponsored web-pages dealing with the science of global warming. See:

Wikipedia articles might become important as sites that Trump can't dislodge. Wikipedia editors who specialize in the science of global warming need to search diligently for reliable websites that Trump can't mess with. Such sites can serve as references for this and other global warming related articles.

If you are one of those scientists who don't like being gagged or if you know any of those scientists Wikiversity accepts original material and you don't need to give your real name to publish there. Just make sure Trump's hackers can't trace you. Proxima Centauri (talk) 17:34, 25 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Until he writes an executive order forbidding the discussion of climate change on servers hosted in the US. And yes, it would be unconstitutional. You think he cares? Guy (Help!) 17:40, 25 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I don't think Trump can break the constitution except perhaps temporarily. The ACLU has taken on extra staff to deal with the vast number of Trump related law suits they expect. I guess Trump cares about losing law suits. Proxima Centauri (talk) 18:11, 25 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

It looks to me very much as if he is already in breach of the Emoluments Clause. And of course there's the unratified Nixon Amendment ("don't be a Dick")...

He could, undoubtedly, issue an order depriving WMF of it's charitable status. Guy (Help!) 18:17, 25 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

There are a great many websites like science forums where scientists can publish anonymously and Trump can't get to all of them. Proxima Centauri (talk) 18:34, 25 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

You know that. I know that. Every sane person in the world knows that. Trump, on the other hand, thinks he had the biggest audience of any inauguration in history. Guy (Help!) 18:39, 25 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

In this situation, it behooves us to archive EVERY reference we have, and to automatically archive any new references we add. — Gorthian (talk) 21:17, 25 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

"are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing."

This statement at the end of the second paragraph seems to be overly broad and unsubstantiated. Certainly, the citation given does not document the statement. And certainly, there are scientific bodies of "national" or "international" standing (whatever that means) that dispute elements of the IPCC conclusions. In any case, it doesn't seem like a particularly factual statement and detracts from the quality of the article. The previous statement about statements from academic organizations is a more factual and accurate statement and I would think leaving it at that point, rather than making the sweeping claim, which is easily disprovable, would be better. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 15:57, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Could you provide a citation to one or more of these bodies that you say dispute the findings please. Thanks. Dmcq (talk) 17:27, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I will do so, but in the meantime, I should also note that the cited Joint science academies' statement (1) does not refer to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, which is the source for all of the referenced statements, but rather cites earlier IPCC reports which have been superseded by the FAR, (2) the joint statement furthermore does not say what is stated in the article, so to claim that "these findings" are supported by the joint statement is simply false (for example the joint statement says nothing about the temperature projections), and (3) the statement is signed by academies from only 11 countries out of the G20 major economies so it is not true that it has been signed by academies from all of the "the major industrialized nations". --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:03, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Look at the statement of the American Physical Society from 2007 with additional commentary in 2010 here. It does not support all of the statements made in the article. And, as I said before, the joint statement and citation do not support all of the statements made. The problematic sentence is

These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations[15][b] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.[17]

I think it would be much better to simply say, something along the lines of the following, which is certainly a true statement and is verified by the citations given. As it stands now, the sentence is not true, and not verified by the citations given.

Some of these findings have been recognized by the national science academies of some of the major industrialized nations.[15][b] [17]

--TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:30, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Lets just deal with the bit where you say what was said is easily disprovable first. Dmcq (talk) 18:31, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I did disprove it. The APS statement does not agree with the the temperature projections or the 95% certainty that the majority of the warming is anthropogenic. Furthermore, none of the joint statements say anything about the temperature projections that the IPCC FAR talks about. So to claim that they support it is simply false. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:37, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I don't see the name of a science academy in what you wrote there. I am not interested in your proofs or disproofs, such stuff comes under WP:OR. I am interested in getting a citation which can be stuck into the article. Dmcq (talk) 20:26, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

The American Physical Society is a science academy, indeed one of the oldest and preeminent academies of science in the USA. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 21:27, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Why them? They say explicitly they support the IPCC [2] Dmcq (talk) 21:52, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I cited the APS statement on climate change above, but here it is again, the statement you reference from November 14, 2015 is a very short "Statement on Earth's Changing Climate" that says in part, "While natural sources of climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect on global climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century" which is very different from the IPCC statements referenced in the article, and it says nothing about projected future temperatures which the IPCC does and is referenced in the article. Furthermore, nowhere in the statement you reference does it state that the APS "support the IPCC" or all of its conclusions. Indeed, it says "Nevertheless, as recognized by Working Group 1 of the IPCC, scientific challenges remain in our abilities to observe, interpret, and project climate changes. To better inform societal choices, the APS urges sustained research in climate science." Please read carefully. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 23:08, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

How on Earth do you justify your claim that the APS "disputes" what the IPCC says when all they do is point out different aspects of the same thing? Is to repeat all the IPCC's findings word for word and not say anything else the only way not to "dispute" the IPCC's findings? --Hob Gadling (talk) 23:24, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

We're only talking about the couple of sentences in this articles that cite specific findings of the IPCC. And then the article says "These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations[15][b] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.[17]" That is a demonstrably false statement, as I have demonstrated here. These findings, namely the ones in the two or three preceding sentences have not all been "recognized by ...". We are not talking about all the findings of the IPCC, just the ones that this article specifically references. You have to read and respond in context. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 23:30, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I see nothing in the APS statement that disputes what the IPCC says. You said that it was easy to show there were such type organizations that dispute the IPCC conclusions. Either produce one or just stop. Dmcq (talk) 23:40, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

@Dmcq: Among other things, I said "This statement at the end of the second paragraph seems to be overly broad and unsubstantiated. Certainly, the citation given does not document the statement." Currently, the last sentence of the 2nd paragraph reads, "These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations[14][b] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.[16]" That statement is false and misleading for the following reasons

"These findings" namely the temperature projections, for example, are not mentioned in the cited joint statement. So the statement that "these findings have been recognized by" is an unsupported claim and as such should be removed.
Saying something is "not disputed by" is misleading phrasing attempting to lead the reader into believing that "not disputed" = "supports". There are many things that are not disputed that are neither true nor supported. The individual science organizations have issued their own statements and joint statements of what they believe to be true. The fact that they don't item-by-item dispute elements of the IPCC report does not mean that they support every statement in the IPCC. Indeed, they have indicated support for only a small portion of what the IPCC report claims.
There are numerous peer-reviewed science papers published all the time that dispute and contradict elements of the IPCC reports.

--TheClarinetGuy _talk 19:58, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

We're not talking about papers, we're talking about scientific societies of national or international standing. Please keep to the subject and produce a citation suppporting what you saoid that it was easyy to show there were such institutions that disputed the conclusions of the IPCC. There is no requirementt for them to reproduce every statement of the IPCC when they show support of its conclusions and don't put in any exceptions. Dmcq (talk) 21:59, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I started the thread, so I know what I'm talking about. And the statement "These findings..." is false, in particular the findings in the preceding sentence are not "recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations" and the citation does not show any such recognition of those findings. I don't understand why you are hung up on this? It's very straightforward. Where is your evidence that they are recognized? The burden of proof is on the party seeking to include statements in a WP article, not the other way around, and to show that you must provide "a citation to a reliable source that directly supports the contribution". So show me a source that says that the science academies of all the industrialized nations of the world recognize the temperature predictions of the IPCC. The citation given (1) does not mention the temperature predictions, and (2) does not include all the major industrialized nations. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 01:07, 31 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I agree there's work to do here. When the text was first introduced it read

The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This finding is recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries and is not rejected by any scientific body of national or international standing.^[1]^[2]^[3]^[B] Nevertheless, skepticism amongst the wider public remains. The Kyoto Protocol is aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference".^[4] As of November 2009, 187 states had signed and ratified the protocol.^[5]

At the start of 2012, the disputed text was part of Lead para 1

Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.[2] Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels.[3][4][5][6] These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries.[7][A]"

In that version "these findings" came immediately after the sentence saying (paraphrased) that its warming and its us. Those are the findings that were intended by the editor who wrote the phrase "these findings" and I know this because it was me. I think. Maybe I helped polsih or at least . Today the disputed text is found at the end of paragraph 2, and to refocus that reads

Scientific understanding of global warming is increasing. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014, that "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century." [9] Human activities have led to carbon dioxide concentrations above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years. Currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere. The rest is absorbed by vegetation and the oceans.[10] Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) for the highest emissions scenario.[11] These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations[12][b] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.[14]

problems

The main problem is that "these findings" has been gramatically severed from what it is supposed to refer to (its warming and its mostly us)
A small apple polishing issue is that the sci academy reference is 2005 and someone who doesn't understand that IPCC has been saying its warming and its us since AR1 might wonder how a 2005 statement can affirm or reject findings that were (re)stated in a 2013/2014 report. That's only possible when people don't realize the 2013 bit is a restatement of the general point that its warming and its mostly us, but the current language does create the possibility that someone would stumble on this.

Fixes should be pretty simple, but I'm out of time for awhile. Your thoughts anybody? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 03:24, 31 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

refs for this section

References

^ Oreskes, Naomi (December 2004). "BEYOND THE IVORY TOWER: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change". Science. 306 (5702): 1686. doi:10.1126/science.1103618. PMID 15576594. Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This is not the case. [...] Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion, disagreement, or discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect.
^ "Joint Science Academies' Statement" (PDF). Retrieved 2010-08-09.
^ "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (PDF). Retrieved 2010-08-09.
^ "Article 2". The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved 15 November 2005. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner
^ "Kyoto Protocol: Status of Ratification" (PDF). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2009-01-14. Retrieved 2009-05-06.

Phrasing for the conclusions

The article lead has 'reported in 2014 that it found, with a degree of certainty greater than 95%, that human influence has been the cause of more than half of the observed warming since 1951' in it. I think there is a bit of a problem with this but I'm not sure exactly how to resolve the problem. The implication is that human influence is a bit more than half whereas that is not is really being said. There are various percentages of scientists who say various amounts or don't want to commit themselves. A best guess mode average think that human influence causes on it is about 100% - this is possible because many think the natural effects may be acting in opposition to human influence as well as a number of others thinking it adds to human influence. The 95% is measuring something the readers are not so strongly interested in, many wouldn't really notice if the figure had been 99% or 90% which would lead to quite different amounts on the 50% side. Dmcq (talk) 17:55, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

AR5 SPM says "The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period" (i.e., 1951-2010). So, yeah. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 18:01, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Shock Brigade Harvester Boris Great example why SPM is not a good source. The term "similar" is not defined anywhere in the SPM and you apparently interpreted that to mean that virtually all the warming is human induced. But if you read the actual report, you would see that's not what it says and not what it means. The actual report says (in bold to indicate that it is a finding of the IPCC) "It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together (Figure 1.9)." "Extremely likely" is defined to mean 95%-100% likely and "more than half" means greater than 50%. Very clear, scientific, and correct. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 20:25, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

The citation provided from the actual report as opposed to the SPM, which is not a reliable source, states "It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together (Figure 1.9)." And "extremely likely" is defined in the actual report to mean 95-100%. Very clear. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:05, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

AR5 SPM is not a reliable source? Seriously? Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 18:10, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, it is a summary and therefore can lead to misinterpretations as evidenced here. The actual report itself is available and totally explicit and carefully worded by actual scientists. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:32, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Interesting perspective. I'll bring this up on the reliable sources noticeboard. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 18:36, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

The principle of best evidence in a scientific matter would always dictate that you go to the actual language of the scientific report and not to a summary written specifically for the benefit of non-scientific policy makers. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:40, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

The lead of articles in Wikipedia should be as accessible as possible and precise details put further down if included. Saying what is there would not be misinterpreted by most people is simply wrong, it is details for scientists not the general public. What is there is not clear and accessible. The summary for policymakers is aimed more at the general public. See the second paragraph of WP:LEAD for guidance on this.Dmcq (talk) 18:44, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, but I thought we were talking about the citation here. As I pointed out already the language that was there previously did not accurately reflect what the actual report says. And there is no point in citing the summary when you can cite the actual report. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:51, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

What was there before was accurate, it just wasn't as accurate at copying what was written as what you wrote. Instead of giving the meaning you copied the words. You sacrificed clarity for accuracy. Dmcq (talk) 20:23, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

No it was not accurate. Words have meaning. For example, previously it said that the IPCC reported that "scientists were more than 95% certain". That is inaccurate. The IPCC reported that it found a degree of certainty of 95% or more, not "scientists" in general. And "degree of certainty" again is a defined scientific term in the report. Huge difference. Furthermore, before my edit it said "is mostly being caused by..." again that is misleading. "Mostly" can be interpreted to mean many things, indeed most people (editors here in evidence) take that to mean "virtually all". The IPCC found that more than half (i.e. 51% or more) of warming since 1951 was 95% or more likely to be human caused. That's a very different statement again. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 21:47, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

That is just pettifogging and has nothing to do with the point that your change obscures because it uses unsuitable language for a widely viewed page rather than simple language. Dmcq (talk) 22:00, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

What language is "unsuitable"? The language I used is clear, simple, understandable and accurate. The language there before was incorrect. Indeed it is you who are pettifogging. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 23:12, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

So what is wrong with using the quote from SPM and backing it up with both the SPM and fig 10.5 from chapter 10 of WG1 main report? That surely support that it is similar and not halfish. (If we were to insist on a quote from chapter 10 then there is within 10.9 "These results strengthen the conclusion that human influence on climate has played the dominant role in observed warming since the 1950s.") crandles (talk) 23:10, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

The appropriate citation is the one I have given which is from 1.3.1 Attribution of climate changes to human and natural influences on the climate system. It says "more than half" which is very simple English understood by even young children. and it says "from 1951" also simple, factual, and the actual finding of the scientists not a twisted and spun version saying "dominant" and "mostly" and other words which have other meanings. Words matter. Scientists know that. That's why they choose them carefully. Is your objective to obscure the actual science here or to summarize it? --TheClarinetGuy _talk 23:19, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Have you looked at figure 10.5 of the main report. What is not similar about that comparison? crandles (talk) 23:30, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Figure 10.5 in which report? That's not in SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 23:38, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

If it is so simple are you going to tell be how it would change if the confidence interval was 90% or 99% which was the problem being asked about here? crandles (talk) 23:33, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I don't understand your question. The IPCC found with 95% certainty that more than half of the warming is anthropogenic. That's what the report says. There is nothing complicated about it. What was there before was more complicated and untrue. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 23:38, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I think the statement from the summary for policymakers should be used as a basis for what is in the lead and all the overly technical jargon that has just been inserted should be removed. Dmcq (talk) 23:45, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

No technical jargon of any kind was added. What was technical jargon? Be specific. If you don't like 95% certain (which was there from before), then you could say "extremely likely". --TheClarinetGuy _talk 23:48, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Copying percentages from the body of the report, to overwrite the carefully chosen words of the summary for policymakers, makes the text harder to follow, and unnecessarily technical, especially in this encyclopedic summary. I agree with the revert. --Nigelj (talk) 23:57, 29 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I've put in a bit I hope paraphrases what the summary says on this point. Dmcq (talk) 00:01, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

"their best estimate is that all of it, is caused by human..." are you kidding? It doesn't say anything like that anywhere in the report. Why are you putting such a blatantly false statement in there? --TheClarinetGuy _talk 00:16, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

You obviously haven't looked at fig 10.5 from chapter 10 for WG1 report and don't understand what we are talking about.crandles (talk) 00:27, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

There is something contradictory (grammatically) with the following statement: "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that it was extremely likely that at least half the global warming, and their best estimate is that all of it, is caused by human (anthropogenic) activities, mainly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases ".

Is something like the following is meant? <The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that it felt that while it is extremely likely that all global warming is caused by human (anthropogenic) activities, mainly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide (CO2), that most certainly at least half of it is>. Rwood128 (talk) 01:38, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

C-randles Ok, now I have looked at 10.5 from WG1 but that absolutely does not in any way justify the statement "their best estimate is that all of it , is caused by human..."! You clearly do not understand what that graph says or means. The bar graphs are simply midpoints of ranges and are in no way "best estimates". Indeed, the text on page 60 just before this graph states once again, "It is extremely likely that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010." That is the correct statement that the science supports, and that is what the scientists said! What you have written here now on the page is made up nonsense by someone who doesn't understand or know how to read the science. You can't simply make stuff up. And combining multiple imprecise estimations with multiple levels of confidence is not a simple task, which is why the scientists who wrote the report did careful explanations of what they determined. They were very clear. What is written on the page here now is patently false. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 03:38, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Dmcq Please revert your edit that makes the patently false statement "their best estimate is that all of it, is caused by human.." as this is supported nowhere in the IPCC. Your misreading of a graph or a statement from the SPM does not justify it. If necessary, I will take it to the appropriate noticeboard for further comment. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 03:48, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Please do so. I think it would be worth getting broader input on this matter. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:58, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Is that please do so directed at Dmcq to revert the edit or to me to bring it to a noticeboard? If directed at me, which noticeboard do you think I should go to? --TheClarinetGuy _talk 04:53, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Directed to you (it was immediately below your comment and one level further indented). As for which noticeboard -- hmmm, it's not really a question of sourcing so I think WP:RSN is out. If you believe there's a question of misconduct it would get plenty of attention at WP:ANI. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 04:58, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Will do. But isn't it also a question of sourcing in that Dmcq is claiming the cited sources say something they absolutely do not? Are there any other places? --TheClarinetGuy _talk 05:09, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

The second citation says:

"The evidence for human influence on the climate system has grown since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together. The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period (Figure SPM.3)"

I put in

". The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that it was extremely likely that at least half the global warming, and their best estimate is that all of it, is caused by human (anthropogenic) activities"

I think they corresponds quite closely. I can only think your idea of 'absolutely does not support' is similar to your notion in the previous discussion that the APS statement about climate change disputes what the IPCC says. And it certainly is close enough for a WP:LEAD statement that is supposed to be generally accessible. Dmcq (talk) 09:33, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

To my mind, this sentence – "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that it was extremely likely that at least half the global warming, and their best estimate is that all of it, is caused by human (anthropogenic) activities, mainly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases " - ls grammatically unsound and so confusing.

Does the following clarify what the report actually said – that is improve the sentence structure: <The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that the nearly all scientists believed that global warming was occurring, and that while most of them felt that it is extremely likely that it is caused by human (anthropogenic) activities, mainly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide (CO2), some?/a few?/ of them only believed that just half was caused by human activities>.— Preceding unsigned comment added by Rwood128 (talk • contribs) 10:25, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I reverted "more than half" back to "most" on basis of abundant debate, off an on, since Sept 2011. My revert produced this version. Type "more than half" (including quotes) in the talk page archives to see the same threads I saw. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:25, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

A clearer statement is made in the coloured box at SPM 1.2 Causes of climate change: greenhouse gas "effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century."
Propose "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that it was extremely likely that human (anthropogenic) activities, mainly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of global warming, and their best estimate was that the net effect of human activities was about equal to, or greater than, the observed warming, with natural forcings and natural internal variability having little net effect." . . dave souza, talk 11:07, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Or, slightly tweaked, propose "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that it was extremely likely that global warming is predominantly caused by human (anthropogenic) activities, mainly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, and their best estimate was that the net effect of human activities was about equal to, or greater than, the observed warming, with natural forcings and natural internal variability having little net effect." . . . dave souza, talk 11:12, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Sorry dave souza your suggested revision crossed with my comment below. Isn't this perhaps a little longwinded. I find this to be generally true for this lede. Rwood128 (talk) 11:44, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Not if it prevents endless debate by succinctly summarzing the major nuances. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:58, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I think what you put in is much worse than what I had. It concentrates attention on the 95% which isn't that important and pairs it with 'most' and doesn't give the best estimate. The lead is supposed to be accessible and percentage chances isn't the sort of thing which helps with that. Is your main problem with what I put in that you think it was ungrammatical? It is quite easy to split it into two sentences. Dmcq (talk) 12:13, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

though a few believed

Thanks NewsAndEventsGuy. But where does this confusing statement, "it was extremely likely that at least half the global warming", come from in the report? Wouldn't it be more accurate to deal with it, even if only few scientists support this position? I suggest revising to read: <The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014 that scientists were more than 95% certain that global warming is mostly being caused by human (anthropogenic) activities, mainly increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide (CO2), though a few of them only believed that just half was caused by human activities>.Rwood128 (talk) 11:19, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Re sentence 1, see the existing reference footnote 10. Re the rest, We don't edit based on "even if" NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:35, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I think you (Rwood) might be misunderstanding the IPCC (which uses a consensus process) and its conclusions. The IPCC AR 5 and its SPM are quite explicit. It is extremely likely that most of the warming is caused by anthropogenic factors (there is a very very low chance that it is half or less). And the best estimate for the anthropogenic influence is that it causes all of the warming. That is a different statement that is fully consistent with the first. If I throw a coin 100 times, and it comes 80 heads/20 tails, then it is extremely likely (though not, strictly, proven) that the coin is biased. My best estimate of the bias is that the probability of heads is 80%. Nowhere does the number of people who believe one statement or the other come into play. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 11:40, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

housekeeping note - I am uncertain how the WP:THREAD would ideally be done, but the following is all subsequent to the prior discussion in this subsection NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:13, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Rwood128 Re your question about the "confusing statement":

Page 60 of WG1, 2nd paragraph of TS.4.2 Surface Temperature: "It is extremely likely that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010."
Page 66 of WG1, 1st paragraph "Consistent with AR4, it is assessed that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 is very likely due to the observed anthropogenic increase in WMGHG concentrations."
Page 5 of Summary for Policy Makers: "It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together."
Page 48 of Synthesis Report bold faced finding at 1.3.1 Attribution of climate changes to human and natural influences on the climate system: "It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together (Figure 1.9)." [no emphasis added]

--TheClarinetGuy _talk 13:55, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Stephan Schulz any confusion was caused by the wording of the sentence in question. I haven't read the report and am not an expert on this topic. Clearly most scientists believe that there is global warming and that people cause it, though there are a few dissenters, and also a few who believe that non-human factors contribute to up to half of global warming. That is what I believed that the original sentence was trying to say. But the current version is a great improvement on the earlier muddled sentence. Rwood128 (talk) 12:09, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

The current sentence does not give their best estimate. It over-emphasizes 95% which most people won't have an intuitive grasp of and pairs that 'accurate' figure with the vague 'most'. We should just try and summarize in the lead as clearly as possible for non-technical people what is being said, and I think the summary for policymakers is a good basis for that. Dmcq (talk) 12:25, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Maybe we can turn things on their head and lead with the best estimate? The 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report states the best estimate is that anthropgenic influences are responsible for approximately all of the observed temperature change, and that it is more than 95% certain that most of the warming is caused by human activities, in particular the release of greenhouse gases such as methane and CO2? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 12:34, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Sounds reasonable. Rwood128 (talk) 12:38, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Still a bit convoluted, so clearer with two sentences: "The 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report states that it is extremely likely that human activities are the dominant cause of global warming. Its best estimate is that anthropgenic influences are responsible for approximately all of the observed temperature change, and it is more than 95% certain that most of the warming is caused by human activities, in particular the release of greenhouse gases such as methane and CO2" – dave souza, talk 12:48, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

This is a false statement. The report does not say that anywhere either in the SPM or in the body of the report. Here's what WG1 says verbatim on pages 60, 66 (61 to 65 have intervening sidebars): "Uncertainties in forcings and in climate models’ responses to those forcings, together with difficulty in distinguishing the patterns of temperature response due to WMGHGs and other anthropogenic forcings, prevent as precise a quantification of the temperature changes attributable to WMGHGs and other anthropogenic forcings individually. Consistent with AR4, it is assessed that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 is very likely due to the observed anthropogenic increase in WMGHG concentrations." [emphasis added] Nowhere in the report or summary does it say "our best estimate is that anthropogenic influences are responsible for approximately all of the observed temperature change". --TheClarinetGuy _talk 13:34, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

As I wrote over at WP:RSN, the IPCC AR5 SPM, page 17, section D3, last sentence of the first bullet point under the coloured box says "The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period" and the next bullet point quantifies the other contributions as "likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C" from natural forcings and "likely to be in the range of −0.1°C to 0.1°C" from internal variability. Uncertainties affect the size of the error bars, not the best estimate. See above - the two statements are not conflicting, but deal with different properties. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 13:43, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

@Stephan Schulz: Yes, it says "similar to" not "equal to" and those individual numbers are only assessed as likely, i.e. with 66% or more confidence, and the report goes on to say "Together these assessed contributions are consistent with the observed warming of 0.6ºC to 0.7ºC over this period." Again "consistent with" is not the same as "equal to". And in the WG1 at p66, it says, "Uncertainties in forcings and in climate models’ responses to those forcings, together with difficulty in distinguishing the patterns of temperature response due to WMGHGs and other anthropogenic forcings, prevent as precise a quantification of the temperature changes attributable to WMGHGs and other anthropogenic forcings individually. Consistent with AR4, it is assessed that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 is very likely due to the observed anthropogenic increase in WMGHG concentrations." [emphasis added] --TheClarinetGuy _talk 14:05, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

The IPCC makes two different statements - one on the expected value of anthropogenic temperature change, and a different one on the certainty with which they can assign at least half of the observed warming to human influences. If I throw a normal, six-sided die, the expected value is 3.5 (although the probability for that value coming up is actually zero), and the probability that the result is at least 4 ist 50%. Those are both useful and important things to know if you gamble. We can of course keep debating on what the meaning of "is" is. But the fact that the IPCC makes statements on the probability of "most warming" that you like to emphasise is very much irrelevant to the question of the best estimate. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 14:26, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

TheClarinetGuy _talk are you claiming that nothing close to the statement "it is more than 95% certain that most of the warming is caused by human activities," appears anywhere in this report? Or is it that the report suggest that the statistical probability is close to 100% ("extremely likely") that human activity is responsible for more than half of global warming and that it is a little less probable, statistically, that the cause is 95% certain?

My comments are of course based on the second hand comments and quotations given in this discussion, not the original text. Also this was written before the last two highly technical comments.

Perhaps it should read <it is most probable that more than half of global warming is caused by human activities, and it could be as high as 95%>. Rwood128 (talk) 14:24, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Rwood128 Yes, no such statement appears anywhere in the report. The scientists on the IPCC developed a precise terminology for their statements. The statements they made are listed above in this conversation in my response to ~~NewsAndEventsGuy~~you. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 14:29, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I like Dave Souza version but it runs on a bit so it is unclear whether 95% is re all anthro or the ghgs, so I would suggest more sentences, also why not use exact words of SPM, perhaps: "The 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report states that it is extremely likely that human activities are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.(ref SPM p17) Its best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period,(ref SPM p17, fig 10.5) and it is more than 95% certain that most of the warming is caused by human activities.(ref WG1 Ch10.3-10.6, 10.9) The release of greenhouse gases such as methane and CO2 being considered the largest positive contribution while other anthropogenic effects include cooling effects of aerosols; these are considered larger than natural forcings and internal variability over this period.(ref SPM p17)" crandles (talk) 14:34, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

We're talking about the lead which is supposed to be an accessible summary of the article. Less is more in such a context. We don't have to have everything fully complete otherwise we'd be writing the article in the lead. That's not quite as bad as some people who I've seen want to write an article into its title but its on the same lines. It just has to be a good reasonable summary. And it doesn't have to follow just the IPCC. Dmcq (talk) 14:52, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

So crandles, TheClarinetGuy _talk is wrong and something like "it is more than 95% certain that most of the warming is caused by human activities," does appear in the report?

Can someone answer my query, above, re statistics and "more than half" versus 95%.

chapter 10 is here it does include "It is extremely likely that human activities caused more than half of the observed increase in GMST from 1951 to 2010" and if you don't understand that both this and "The best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming over this period" can be consistent then please consider whether you are really helping. crandles (talk) 15:21, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I strongly agree with Dmcq that the lede should be "an accessible summary of the article". Rwood128 (talk) 14:56, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Agree that is too long. Can be cut down quite a bit perhaps "The 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report's best estimate of the human-induced contribution to warming is similar to the observed warming since the mid-20th century,(ref SPM p17, fig 10.5) and it is more than 95% certain that most of the warming is caused by human activities.(ref WG1 Ch10.3-10.6, 10.9) The release of greenhouse gases such as methane and CO2 being considered the largest positive contribution.(ref SPM p17)" crandles (talk) 15:05, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Looks fine to me. Rwood128, several people have quoted parts of the report. I suggest you take a look at the IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers, the most condensed version of the AR5, and don't rely on selective second-hand quotes. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 15:24, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

From that IPC AR5 summary, page 17; D.3 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change summarises the issue in a coloured box, the last sentence of which is "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century." That's it in a nutshell, with no need for reference to similarity or 95% certainty. . dave souza, talk 16:41, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I began with the suggestion a clumsily constructed sentence needed revision, because my initial sense was that the problem had as much to do with muddled writing as with science. I'm reasonably happy with the revised version, even though this lengthy debate suggests that it may oversimplify the facts.

I cannot see any point in my reading the report. You all are the one's with the scientific expertise, and hopefully will eventually find a mutually acceptable wording. Rwood128 (talk) 16:08, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Although I'm not wild about the word "dominant" as it has unfounded connotations in this context, I agree with Dave souza that the statement "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century" is short, sweet and simple and is otherwise accurate. I would recommend either that statement or that statement with the words "has been the dominant cause" replaced by "has caused more than half of" which is more accurate and equally readable and accessible. --TheClarinetGuy _talk

The current version uses the verbatim quote from IPCC's top level most boiled down summary. If they meant to say, or give an opening for others to infer, that it is extremely like that 49% of the warming is natural they could have said so. This was their FIFTH time at bat, after all. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:10, 31 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Seems accurate enough and follows what the report says. Anything more can go into the body of the article. An alternative would be to use the SPM and just say something like the best estimate of the amount due to human factors is similar to the total amount. Mixing probabilities and amounts like TheClarinetGuy says has obviously caused a lot of confusion and misunderstanding here, it is unsuitable for the lead. Dmcq (talk) 22:04, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Proposal to change title

I would like to propose the title of the article be change from "global warming" to "climate change" or a new term proposed by scientists, "global weirding." The public often misinterprets this term (global warming), believing climate change is related only to the heating of the earth. This misconception plays an important role in the public perception and acceptance of climate change. V00d00Child (talk) 20:41, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

As in climate change? Both terms are used, with a difference in emphasis and overlapping meaning, by multiple sources. The neologism "global weirding" has yet another set of meanings, if sufficiently sourced as something independent it could form a further article, provided care is taken that it's not a WP:POVFORK. . . dave souza, talk 21:03, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

The global warming article seems to be a reasonable split from the climate change article in that climate change can deal more with long term climate change whereas global warming is used for the recent phenomenon. Global weirding gets too few hits on google compared to global warming to consider it any further as a title for this article. Dmcq (talk) 22:09, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

This has been frequently debated in the talk page archives, especially in the 2007-2014 time frame, and here we are. The proposal may be a good faith one, yet the only new remark is your personal preference for the somewhat neologistic "global weirding"... as that, see WP:COMMONNAME. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:47, 30 January 2017 (UTC)[reply]

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[26] Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.

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[28] "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.

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@@ Line 177: / Line 177: @@
 :We're not talking about papers, we're talking about scientific societies of national or international standing. Please keep to the subject and produce a citation suppporting what you saoid that it was easyy to show there were such institutions that disputed the conclusions of the IPCC. There is no requirementt for them to reproduce every statement of the IPCC when they show support of its conclusions and don't put in any exceptions. [[User:Dmcq|Dmcq]] ([[User talk:Dmcq|talk]]) 21:59, 30 January 2017 (UTC)
 ::I started the thread, so I know what I'm talking about. And the statement "''These findings''..." is false, in particular the findings in the preceding sentence are ''not'' "recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations" and the citation does ''not'' show any such recognition of those findings. I don't understand why you are hung up on this? It's very straightforward. Where is your evidence that they ''are'' recognized? The [[WP:BURDEN|burden]] of proof is on the party seeking to include statements in a WP article, not the other way around, and to show that you must provide "a citation to a reliable source that directly supports the contribution". So show me a source that says that the science academies of all the industrialized nations of the world recognize the temperature predictions of the IPCC. The citation given (1) does not mention the temperature predictions, and (2) does not include all the major industrialized nations.  --[[User:Cohler|<b>''TheClarinetGuy''</b> <sub>''talk''</sub>]] 01:07, 31 January 2017 (UTC)
+{{od}}
+I agree there's work to do here.  When the text was [https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Global_warming&diff=425445470&oldid=425436783 first introduced] it read
+:''The [[Scientific opinion on climate change|scientific consensus]] is that [[anthropogenic]] global warming is occurring. '''This finding is recognized by''' the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries and is not rejected by any  scientific body of national or international standing.<ref>{{Cite journal| last = Oreskes| first = Naomi| author-link = Naomi Oreskes| title = BEYOND THE IVORY TOWER: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change| journal = Science| volume = 306| page = 1686| date = December 2004| url =http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686| quote=Such statements suggest that there might be substantive disagreement in the scientific community about the reality of anthropogenic climate change. This is not the case. [...] Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion, disagreement, or discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect.| doi = 10.1126/science.1103618| pmid = 15576594| issue = 5702| postscript = <!--None--> }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf |title=Joint Science Academies' Statement |format=PDF |date= |accessdate=2010-08-09}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/booklets/climate_change_2008_final.pdf |title=Understanding and Responding to Climate Change |format=PDF |date= |accessdate=2010-08-09}}</ref>{{Cref2|B}} Nevertheless, skepticism amongst the wider public remains. The [[Kyoto Protocol]] is aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference".<ref name="unfccc2005">{{cite web| title = Article 2 | work=The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. | quote=Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner | url = http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1353.php | accessdate=15 November 2005 }}</ref> As of November 2009, [[List of Kyoto Protocol signatories|187 states had signed and ratified]] the protocol.<ref name="Kyoto-PDF-unfccc">{{cite web | title = Kyoto Protocol: Status of Ratification | url = http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/application/pdf/kp_ratification.pdf | date = 2009-01-14 | accessdate = 2009-05-06 | publisher=[[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] |format=PDF}}</ref>''
+At the start of 2012, the disputed text was part of Lead para 1
+:''Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.[2] Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels.[3][4][5][6] '''These findings are recognized by''' the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries.[7][A]''"
+In that version "these findings" came immediately after the sentence saying (paraphrased) that its warming and its us.   Those are the findings that were intended by the editor who wrote the phrase "these findings" and I know this because it was me. I think. Maybe I helped polsih or at least .   Today the disputed text is found at the end of paragraph 2, and to refocus that reads
+:''Scientific understanding of global warming is increasing. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2014, that "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century." [9] Human activities have led to carbon dioxide concentrations above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years. Currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere. The rest is absorbed by vegetation and the oceans.[10] Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) for the highest emissions scenario.[11] '''These findings have been recognized by''' the national science academies of the major industrialized nations[12][b] and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing.[14]''
+'''problems'''
+* The main problem is that "these findings" has been gramatically severed from what it is supposed to refer to (its warming and its mostly us)
+* A small apple polishing issue is that the sci academy reference is 2005 and someone who doesn't understand that IPCC has been saying its warming and its us since AR1 might wonder how a 2005 statement can affirm or reject findings that were (re)stated in a 2013/2014 report.  That's only possible when people don't realize the 2013 bit is a restatement of the general point that its warming and its mostly us, but the current language does create the possibility that someone would stumble on this.
+Fixes should be pretty simple, but I'm out of time for awhile.  Your thoughts anybody? [[User:NewsAndEventsGuy|NewsAndEventsGuy]] ([[User talk:NewsAndEventsGuy|talk]]) 03:24, 31 January 2017 (UTC)
+=== refs for this section ===
+{{Reflist-talk}}
 == Phrasing for the conclusions ==