Talk:Correlation does not imply causation

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ATTENTION: This page was moved after a vote at Talk:Correlation implies causation/Page title.

Can we put in a PSA that Correlation does imply causation, just not necessarily so?

If I had a dime every time someone told me that correlation does not equal causation as a means to dismiss correlation as evidence... Perhaps a section labelled: "Improper use as an argument" ?

Akiva.avraham (talk) 16:47, 15 March 2017 (UTC)

Only if a reliable, published source makes that distinction. Wikipedia does not publish original thought. See Talk:Correlation does not imply causation/Archive 2 § Original research, below. —Sangdeboeuf (talk) 21:06, 29 March 2017 (UTC)

Correlation does imply causation, but it doesn't mean causation. I think replacing 'imply' in the title by 'mean' would be better. Nederlandse Leeuw (talk) 01:15, 25 April 2017 (UTC)

An implication in this context is the propositional sense of an implication, see Implicational propositional calculus.GliderMaven (talk) 03:47, 25 April 2017 (UTC)

Yes, but encyclopædia article titles are expected to be in natural language, not propositional logic. Michael R Bax (talk) 20:59, 16 November 2017 (UTC)

The two are not mutually exclusive, as here, where the natural language seems to have incorporated a propositional logic term.GliderMaven (talk) 21:33, 16 November 2017 (UTC)

A better title could be "Correlation is not causation". Karlpoppery (talk) 23:47, 25 April 2017 (UTC)

Alternatives:

* "Correlation does not show causation"

* "Correlation does not necessitate causation"

* "Correlation does not prove causation"

* "Correlation does not demonstrate causation"

Michael R Bax (talk) 20:59, 16 November 2017 (UTC)

Is it possible to prove causation, if correlation is negative sometimes? 71.94.21.2 (talk) 09:48, 15 June 2017 (UTC)

The title is fine if one uses the term "imply" according to standard use in the field of logic (wikt:imply verb use 1 and 2), whereas a natural language use (wikt:imply verb use 3) isn't right. The title "Correlation is not causation" has other problems, because the nature of 'equivalence' here is unclear. Given this, I suggest no page move. Klbrain (talk) 17:08, 28 June 2017 (UTC)

Yes, but encyclopædia article titles are expected to be in natural language, not propositional logic. As such this title is misleading. In fact I was sent to this page by someone arguing that (in general rather than in logic) correlation does not imply causation! Michael R Bax (talk) 20:59, 16 November 2017 (UTC)

Oxford Living Dictionaries: "imply, verb: … 1.1 (of a fact or occurrence) suggest (something) as a logical consequence." Using this definition, correlation does imply causation. Michael R Bax (talk) 20:59, 16 November 2017 (UTC)

The reason that Michael R. Bax is 100% wrong here is simply that the phrase "correlation implies causation" can be interpreted in multiple ways. There are many ways to express the important point here clearly in natural language and without being ambiguous. The phrase "correlation implies causation" is not one of them.50.234.60.130 (talk) 19:57, 4 December 2020 (UTC)

Extremely confusing sentence

In general I try to avoid removing citations, in favor of trying to rework problematic cited material. However, here I am removing a citation; this is an explanation of why I did.

The problematic content is the 'sentence' "The widely held (but mistaken) belief that RCTs provide stronger causal evidence than observational studies, the latter continued to consistently show benefits and subsequent analyses and follow-up studies have demonstrated a significant benefit for CHD risk in healthy women initiating oestrogen therapy soon after the onset of menopause.[5]", added in this edit: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Correlation_does_not_imply_causation&diff=958553497&oldid=958371493 (May 2020 by User:Wikicize).

This sentence is problematic for (at least) two reasons:

• It's grammatically incorrect (the sentence structure is not well-formed)
• It's opinion-based due to the phrase "widely held (but mistaken) belief" which is presented without justification (the previous sentence sources an article that describes a "disparity between findings from observational studies and RCT" which "has created considerable debate among researchers").

Since the linked article (https://www.worldcat.org/title/clinical-pharmacist/oclc/1076797283) is also linked from the article sourced in the previous sentence (https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/33/3/464/716652), it seems reasonable to simply remove the link entirely instead of developing some workaround to maintain it. --Timothy.lucas.jaeger (talk) 01:01, 19 December 2021 (UTC)

After further review, I was mistaken in thinking the reference I was planning to remove was linked from the other sourced article. I will need to rethink my plan of attack here. If someone takes a stab at handling this situation, I would also recommend moving this entire HRT example back to the opening summary from whence it came, as it makes no sense in its current section which is about the meaning of the work 'implies'. This move was done here: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Correlation_does_not_imply_causation&oldid=958564744 (May 2020 by User:Vsmith). --Timothy.lucas.jaeger (talk) 01:10, 19 December 2021 (UTC)

I decided to simply remove this example entirely. It's hardly a poster child for correlation not implying causation, since there is dispute in the scientific community over whether the observed correlated data or randomly-controlled-trial causal data is actually the correct data to go by (assuming I have any understanding of what any of these cited papers are saying). --Timothy.lucas.jaeger (talk) 01:23, 19 December 2021 (UTC)

Causation does not imply correlation, either.

The article currently states:

Where there is causation, there is correlation, but also a sequence in time from cause to effect, a plausible mechanism, and sometimes common and intermediate causes. While correlation is often used when inferring causation because it is a necessary condition, it is not a sufficient condition

Saying among other things that causation implies correlation. However, I don't think this is true.

Firstly, see https://www.statology.org/does-causation-imply-correlation/ . But secondly, consider this real world example:

I am driving a car on the motorway. The speed limit is 70mph, and I want to get where I'm going as fast as possible, so I'm sticking to the speed limit exactly. The motorway is hilly. When the car is going uphill I press harder on the accelerator to stay at 70, and when the car is going downhill I ease off so that I don't go too fast.

In an analysis of foot-angle vs vehicle speed, you would find no correlation between the two variables, since vehicle speed is constant even though foot-angle varies. However, there is an obvious causal relationship between foot-angle and vehicle speed - the foot-angle controls the accelerator, and the accelerator controls the speed.

This also applies to other control systems, such as room temperature vs AC activity - the AC will aim to maintain a constant temperature, such that you'll get a graph with varying AC activity and a flat room temperature, showing no correlation between AC and temperature, despite obvious causality.

Should I delete the quoted section? FalacerSelene (talk) 20:45, 10 April 2022 (UTC)

No. In your example, there is a confounding variable which cancels a correlation that would otherwise be there. That is a very special case. Also, it is WP:OR, and we do not deleted sourced content because of OR. --Hob Gadling (talk) 05:49, 11 April 2022 (UTC)

Thanks for your explanation. Here we go:

• https://medium.com/gradiant-talks/if-correlation-does-not-imply-causation-then-what-does-8fa462943b84 (the 'does no correlation imply no causation' section)
• https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2010/12/milton-friedmans-thermostat.html

This wasn't an original thought to me, and I've traced it back to these links. Also, the section that I quoted doesn't have a conflicting citation - it is unsourced. FalacerSelene (talk) 08:42, 11 April 2022 (UTC)

The title is just incorrect.

It does imply causation, it just doesn't prove it. Do you have any logical reason to dispute that? --fs 09:37, 8 June 2022 (UTC)

See Correlation_does_not_imply_causation#Usage,_and_meaning_of_'imply'. Vpab15 (talk) 10:54, 8 June 2022 (UTC)

And where does this article make it clear that it's purely a Statistics article? fs 08:30, 11 June 2022 (UTC)

Why should it? Is it? --Hob Gadling (talk) 09:06, 11 June 2022 (UTC)