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<section begin="senintro" />The '''2024 United States Senate election in Arizona''' will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the [[United States Senate]] to represent the [[Arizona|State of Arizona]]. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.<ref>{{Cite web |title=2024 State Primary Election Dates |url=https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2024-state-primary-election-dates |access-date=2023-08-06 |website=www.ncsl.org}}</ref> This election is the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election will be held in Arizona after elections in [[2016 United States Senate election in Arizona|2016]], [[2018 United States Senate election in Arizona|2018]], [[2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona|2020]], and [[2022 United States Senate election in Arizona|2022]].
<section begin="senintro" />The '''2024 United States Senate election in Arizona''' will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the [[United States Senate]] to represent the [[Arizona|State of Arizona]]. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.<ref>{{Cite web |title=2024 State Primary Election Dates |url=https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2024-state-primary-election-dates |access-date=2023-08-06 |website=www.ncsl.org}}</ref> This election is the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election will be held in Arizona after elections in [[2016 United States Senate election in Arizona|2016]], [[2018 United States Senate election in Arizona|2018]], [[2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona|2020]], and [[2022 United States Senate election in Arizona|2022]].


Incumbent one-term [[Centrism|centrist]]<ref>{{Cite web |last=Staff |title=Kyrsten Sinema, Senator for Arizona |url=https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/kyrsten_sinema/412509 |access-date=2023-04-23 |website=[[GovTrack.us]] |language=en}}</ref> [[Independent politician|independent]] Senator [[Kyrsten Sinema]] was first elected as a Democrat in [[2018 United States Senate election in Arizona|2018]] with 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican [[Jeff Flake]]. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022. Sinema has not declared if she will run for re-election, but filed paperwork to do so in April 2023.<ref name="WSJ 2023-04-07">{{cite news |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/kyrsten-sinema-is-preparing-for-a-2024-re-election-campaign-23edb2fb |title=Kyrsten Sinema Is Preparing for a 2024 Re-Election Campaign |website=The Wall Street Journal |date=April 7, 2023 |first1=Eliza |last1=Collins|access-date=April 7, 2023}}</ref> U.S. Representative [[Ruben Gallego]] is seeking the Democratic nomination, while [[Pinal County]] Sheriff [[Mark Lamb (sheriff)|Mark Lamb]] is running for the Republican nomination, as is [[Kari Lake]], the party's [[2022 Arizona gubernatorial election|2022 gubernatorial nominee]]. Due to the uncertainty regarding Sinema's intentions, the state's [[Swing state|purple]] lean, and the potential for a three-way race, most analysts currently consider the race to be a tossup.<ref name="Inside Elections">{{cite web |date=January 6, 2023|access-date=January 10, 2023 |title=Senate Ratings |url=https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate |publisher=[[Inside Elections]]}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=2024 Senate Race ratings |url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings |access-date=2023-01-25 |website=Cook Political Report |language=en}}</ref><section end="senintro"/>
Incumbent one-term [[Centrism|centrist]]<ref>{{Cite web |last=Staff |title=Kyrsten Sinema, Senator for Arizona |url=https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/kyrsten_sinema/412509 |access-date=2023-04-23 |website=[[GovTrack.us]] |language=en}}</ref> [[Independent politician|independent]] Senator [[Kyrsten Sinema]] was first elected as a Democrat in [[2018 United States Senate election in Arizona|2018]] with 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican [[Jeff Flake]]. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022. Sinema has not declared if she will run for re-election, but filed paperwork to do so in April 2023.<ref name="WSJ 2023-04-07">{{cite news |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/kyrsten-sinema-is-preparing-for-a-2024-re-election-campaign-23edb2fb |title=Kyrsten Sinema Is Preparing for a 2024 Re-Election Campaign |website=The Wall Street Journal |date=April 7, 2023 |first1=Eliza |last1=Collins|access-date=April 7, 2023}}</ref> U.S. Representative [[Ruben Gallego]] is seeking the Democratic nomination, while [[Pinal County]] Sheriff [[Mark Lamb (sheriff)|Mark Lamb]] is running for the Republican nomination, as is [[Kari Lake]], the party's [[2022 Arizona gubernatorial election|2022 gubernatorial nominee]]. Due to the uncertainty regarding Sinema's intentions, the state's [[Swing state|purple]] lean, and the potential for a three-way race, most analysts currently consider the race to be a tossup, however Gallego has consistently led polls by wide margins.<ref name="Inside Elections">{{cite web |date=January 6, 2023|access-date=January 10, 2023 |title=Senate Ratings |url=https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate |publisher=[[Inside Elections]]}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=2024 Senate Race ratings |url=https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings |access-date=2023-01-25 |website=Cook Political Report |language=en}}</ref><section end="senintro"/>


==Background==
==Background==

Revision as of 05:10, 26 November 2023

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Party Independent Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Independent



The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1] This election is the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election will be held in Arizona after elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022.

Incumbent one-term centrist[2] independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022. Sinema has not declared if she will run for re-election, but filed paperwork to do so in April 2023.[3] U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is running for the Republican nomination, as is Kari Lake, the party's 2022 gubernatorial nominee. Due to the uncertainty regarding Sinema's intentions, the state's purple lean, and the potential for a three-way race, most analysts currently consider the race to be a tossup, however Gallego has consistently led polls by wide margins.[4][5]

Background

The race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean. Arizona is considered to be a formerly red but now purple state at the federal level, voting for Republican Donald Trump by 3.5 percentage points in 2016 and for Democrat Joe Biden by roughly 0.3 percentage point in 2020. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years, with Democrats controlling the other U.S. Senate seat and the governorship after flipping the latter in 2022, while Republicans hold a majority of its U.S. House seats and control the state legislature.

Independents

Candidates

Filed paperwork

Endorsements

Kyrsten Sinema (I) (not declared)
U.S. senators
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (I) $16,334,577 $5,708,681 $10,797,422
Source: Federal Election Commission[8]

Democratic primary

Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. The most prominent dispute was over the Build Back Better Act, specifically the provisions concerning lowering prescription drug prices, as well as her opposition to increasing the minimum wage and to filibuster reform. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[9] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the filibuster in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.

During the congressional consideration of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, Sinema did not initially announce support for the bill, doing so only after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision on closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[10] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[11]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent.[3]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Ruben Gallego
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide elected officials
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ruben Gallego $9,953,582 $6,225,393 $5,004,763
Source: Federal Election Commission[8]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego
Alexander
Keller
Other Undecided
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 571 (LV) - 48% 6% 6%[b] 40%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kate
Gallego
Ruben
Gallego
Kathy
Hoffman
Regina
Romero
Kyrsten
Sinema
Greg
Stanton
Undecided
Data for Progress (D) January 21–24, 2022 673 (LV) ± 4.0% - 74% - - 16% - 10%
- 66% - - 17% - 17%
OH Predictive Insights November 1–8, 2021 229 (RV) ± 6.5% - 47% - - 24% - 29%
- - 44% - 24% - 32%
- - - - 25% 47% 28%
Data for Progress (D)[A] October 8–10, 2021 467 (LV) ± 5.0% 9% 23% - 9% 19% 13% 26%
60% - - - 25% - 15%
- 62% - - 23% - 15%
- - - 55% 26% - 19%
- - - - 24% 59% 17%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

Declined

Endorsements

Kari Lake
Former U.S. presidents
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
Local officials
Organizations
Mark Lamb

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mark Lamb $1,082,983 $776,010 $306,973
Source: Federal Election Commission[8]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Abe
Hamadeh
Kari
Lake
Mark
Lamb
Jim
Lamon
Blake
Masters
Karrin Taylor
Robson
Brian
Wright
Other Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights October 25-31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% - 40% 14% - 10% - 4% - 33%
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 667 (LV) ± 3.7% - 42% 11% 2% 7% - 2% - 28%
J.L. Partners April 10–12, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 4% 38% 8% 3% 7% 10% - 2% 29%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[65] Tossup November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[4] Tossup November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[66] Tossup November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[67] Tossup May 4, 2023
CNalysis[68] Tossup November 21, 2023

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Kari
Lake (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights October 25–31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 39% 33% 29% 0%
NRSC Internal Poll (R) October 25, 2023 K.A. ± 4.4% 49% 44% - 7%
41% 37% 17% 5%
Cygnal (R) October 24–25, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.96% 46% 43% - 11%
36% 37% 15% 11%
National Research (R) October 8–9, 2023 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 44% - 12%
33% 37% 19% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 48% 43% - 9%
41% 36% 15% 8%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 35% - 20%
34% 25% 26% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) - 42% 35% 14% 9%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 33% - 24%
34% 26% 19% 21%
Normington Petts (D)[C] January 18–23, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 36% 24% 4%
50% 45% - 5%
Blueprint Polling (D) January 5–8, 2023 618 (V) ± 3.9% 32% 36% 14% 18%
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] December 21, 2022 650 (V) ± 3.8% 40% 41% 13% 6%
48% 47% - 5%
- 42% 39% 19%
Hypothetical polling
Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Doug
Ducey (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 34% - 28%
32% 27% 17% 23%
Normington Petts (D)[C] January 18–23, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 37% 31% 27% 5%
Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Blake
Masters (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 41% 31% 17% 11%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 36% - 20%
32% 24% 28% 16%
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 32% - 26%
33% 24% 22% 21%
Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Karrin
Taylor Robson (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 32% - 32%
31% 24% 21% 25%
Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Mark
Lamb (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights October 25-31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 32% 32% 0%
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] October 6–7, 2023 522 (V) ± 4.3% 40% 31% 16% 13%
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 42% - 16%
36% 29% 21% 15%
Noble Predictive Insights July 13–17, 2023 1000 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 36% - 24%
33% 25% 24% 18%
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) - 43% 33% 15% 9%
Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Jim
Lamon (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] April 18–19, 2023 559 (V) - 43% 27% 16% 14%
Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ruben
Gallego (D)
Brian
Wright (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (I)
Undecided
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 38% - 21%
37% 25% 26% 12%

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 6%"
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
  2. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by Gallego's campaign
  3. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC

References

  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
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