Earth's energy budget: Difference between revisions
Andy Dingley (talk | contribs) fix misleading link pipe |
Countercheck (talk | contribs) clean up, typo(s) fixed: ’s → 's; delinked duplicate internal links |
||
Line 2: | Line 2: | ||
{{About|energy flows at and above Earth's surface|Earth's internal heat|Earth's internal heat budget}} |
{{About|energy flows at and above Earth's surface|Earth's internal heat|Earth's internal heat budget}} |
||
{{Use dmy dates|date=October 2020}} |
{{Use dmy dates|date=October 2020}} |
||
[[File:16.8 sunEarth energy imbalancev2.png|thumb|upright=1.4|Earth's energy balance and imbalance, showing where the excess energy goes: Outgoing radiation is decreasing owing to increasing [[greenhouse gas]]es in the atmosphere, leading to Earth's energy imbalance of about 460 TW.<ref name="Trenberth2022" /> The percentage going into each domain of the [[climate system]] is also indicated.]]'''Earth's energy budget''' (or '''Earth's energy balance''') accounts for the balance between the [[energy]] that [[Earth]] receives from the [[Sun]] and the energy the Earth loses back into [[outer space]]. Smaller energy sources, such as Earth's internal heat, are taken into consideration, but make a tiny contribution compared to solar energy. The energy budget also accounts for how energy moves through the [[climate system]].<ref name="IPCC AR6 glossary" />{{rp|2227}} Because the Sun heats the equatorial [[tropics]] more than the [[polar regions]], received [[solar irradiance]] is unevenly distributed. As the energy seeks equilibrium across the planet, it drives interactions in Earth's climate system, i.e., Earth's [[Hydrosphere|water]], [[cryosphere|ice]], [[Earth's Atmosphere|atmosphere]], [[Lithosphere|rocky crust]], and all [[biosphere|living things]].<ref name="IPCC AR6 glossary" />{{rp|2224}} The result is Earth's [[climate]]. |
[[File:16.8 sunEarth energy imbalancev2.png|thumb|upright=1.4|Earth's energy balance and imbalance, showing where the excess energy goes: Outgoing radiation is decreasing owing to increasing [[greenhouse gas]]es in the atmosphere, leading to Earth's energy imbalance of about 460 TW.<ref name="Trenberth2022" /> The percentage going into each domain of the [[climate system]] is also indicated.]]'''Earth's energy budget''' (or '''Earth's energy balance''') accounts for the balance between the [[energy]] that [[Earth]] receives from the [[Sun]] and the energy the Earth loses back into [[outer space]]. Smaller energy sources, such as Earth's internal heat, are taken into consideration, but make a tiny contribution compared to solar energy. The energy budget also accounts for how energy moves through the [[climate system]].<ref name="IPCC AR6 glossary" />{{rp|2227}} Because the Sun heats the equatorial [[tropics]] more than the [[polar regions]], received [[solar irradiance]] is unevenly distributed. As the energy seeks equilibrium across the planet, it drives interactions in Earth's climate system, i.e., Earth's [[Hydrosphere|water]], [[cryosphere|ice]], [[Earth's Atmosphere|atmosphere]], [[Lithosphere|rocky crust]], and all [[biosphere|living things]].<ref name="IPCC AR6 glossary" />{{rp|2224}} The result is Earth's [[climate]]. |
||
Earth's energy budget depends on many factors, such as atmospheric [[aerosols]], [[greenhouse gases]], the planet's surface [[albedo]] (reflectivity), [[cloud cover|clouds]], vegetation, land use patterns, and more. When the incoming and outgoing [[energy flux]]es are in balance, Earth is in [[radiative equilibrium]] and the climate system will be ''relatively'' stable. [[Global warming]] occurs when earth receives more energy than it gives back to space, and [[global cooling]] takes place when the outgoing energy is greater.<ref name="WEB-NASA-EnergyBalance" /> |
Earth's energy budget depends on many factors, such as atmospheric [[aerosols]], [[greenhouse gases]], the planet's surface [[albedo]] (reflectivity), [[cloud cover|clouds]], vegetation, land use patterns, and more. When the incoming and outgoing [[energy flux]]es are in balance, Earth is in [[radiative equilibrium]] and the climate system will be ''relatively'' stable. [[Global warming]] occurs when earth receives more energy than it gives back to space, and [[global cooling]] takes place when the outgoing energy is greater.<ref name="WEB-NASA-EnergyBalance" /> |
||
Multiple types of measurements and observations show a warming imbalance since at least year 1970.<ref name="JOC20161015" /><ref name="EarthSysSciData_20230417" /> The rate of heating from this human-caused event is without precedent.<ref |
Multiple types of measurements and observations show a warming imbalance since at least year 1970.<ref name="JOC20161015" /><ref name="EarthSysSciData_20230417" /> The rate of heating from this human-caused event is without precedent.<ref>Allen, M.R., O.P. Dube, W. Solecki, F. Aragón-Durand, W. Cramer, S. Humphreys, M. Kainuma, J. Kala, N. Mahowald, Y. Mulugetta, R. Perez, M.Wairiu, and K. Zickfeld, 2018: [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/SR15_Chapter_1_HR.pdf Chapter 1: Framing and Context]. In: [https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 49-92. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.003.</ref>{{rp|54}} The main origin of changes in the Earth's energy is from human-induced changes in the composition of the atmosphere.<ref name="Trenberth2022" /> During 2005 to 2019 the [[Earth's energy budget#Earth's energy imbalance (EEI)|Earth's energy imbalance (EEI)]] averaged about 460 [[orders of magnitude (power)#1012|TW]] or globally 0.90 ± 0.15 W per m<sup>2</sup>.<ref name="Trenberth2022" /> |
||
When the energy budget changes, there is a delay before average [[global surface temperature]] changes significantly. This is due to the [[thermal inertia]] of the [[ocean heat content|ocean]]s, land and [[cryosphere]].<ref name="JOURNAL-Previdi-2013" /> Accurate quantification of these energy flows and storage amounts is a requirement within most [[climate model]]s. |
When the energy budget changes, there is a delay before average [[global surface temperature]] changes significantly. This is due to the [[thermal inertia]] of the [[ocean heat content|ocean]]s, land and [[cryosphere]].<ref name="JOURNAL-Previdi-2013" /> Accurate quantification of these energy flows and storage amounts is a requirement within most [[climate model]]s. |
||
== Definition == |
== Definition == |
||
Earth's energy budget includes the "major energy flows of relevance for the climate system".<ref name="IPCC AR6 glossary" >IPCC, 2021: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVII.pdf Annex VII: Glossary] [Matthews, J.B.R., V. Möller, R. van Diemen, J.S. Fuglestvedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Méndez, S. Semenov, A. Reisinger (eds.)]. In [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2215–2256, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.022.</ref> These are "the top-of-atmosphere energy budget; the surface energy budget; changes in the global energy inventory and internal flows of energy within the climate system".<ref name="IPCC AR6 glossary" />{{rp|2227}} |
|||
==Earth's energy flows== |
==Earth's energy flows== |
||
Line 34: | Line 34: | ||
Generally, absorbed solar energy is converted to different forms of heat energy. Some of the solar energy absorbed by the surface is converted to thermal radiation at wavelengths in the "[[atmospheric window]]"; this radiation is able to pass through the atmosphere unimpeded and directly escape to space, contributing to OLR. The remainder of absorbed solar energy is transported upwards through the atmosphere through a variety of heat transfer mechanisms, until the atmosphere emits that energy as thermal energy which is able to escape to space, again contributing to OLR. For example, heat is transported into the atmosphere via [[evapotranspiration]] and [[latent heat]] fluxes or [[thermal conduction|conduction]]/[[convection]] processes, as well as via radiative heat transport.<ref name="WEB-NASA-EnergyBudgetPoster" /> Ultimately, all outgoing energy is radiated into space in the form of longwave radiation. |
Generally, absorbed solar energy is converted to different forms of heat energy. Some of the solar energy absorbed by the surface is converted to thermal radiation at wavelengths in the "[[atmospheric window]]"; this radiation is able to pass through the atmosphere unimpeded and directly escape to space, contributing to OLR. The remainder of absorbed solar energy is transported upwards through the atmosphere through a variety of heat transfer mechanisms, until the atmosphere emits that energy as thermal energy which is able to escape to space, again contributing to OLR. For example, heat is transported into the atmosphere via [[evapotranspiration]] and [[latent heat]] fluxes or [[thermal conduction|conduction]]/[[convection]] processes, as well as via radiative heat transport.<ref name="WEB-NASA-EnergyBudgetPoster" /> Ultimately, all outgoing energy is radiated into space in the form of longwave radiation. |
||
The transport of longwave radiation from Earth's surface through its multi-layered atmosphere is governed by radiative transfer equations such as [[Schwarzschild's equation for radiative transfer]] (or more complex equations if scattering is present) and obeys [[Kirchoff's law of thermal radiation]]. |
The transport of longwave radiation from Earth's surface through its multi-layered atmosphere is governed by radiative transfer equations such as [[Schwarzschild's equation for radiative transfer]] (or more complex equations if scattering is present) and obeys [[Kirchoff's law of thermal radiation]]. |
||
A [[idealized greenhouse model|one-layer model]] produces an approximate description of OLR which yields temperatures at the surface (T<sub>s</sub>=288 [[Kelvin]]) and at the middle of the [[troposphere]] (T<sub>a</sub>=242 Kelvin) that are close to observed average values:<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/atmosphericwarming/singlelayermodel.html |title=ACS Climate Science Toolkit - Atmospheric Warming - A Single-Layer Atmosphere Model |publisher=American Chemical Society |accessdate=30 September 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230525201203/https://www.acs.org/climatescience/atmosphericwarming/singlelayermodel.html |archive-date=2023-05-25}}</ref> |
A [[idealized greenhouse model|one-layer model]] produces an approximate description of OLR which yields temperatures at the surface (T<sub>s</sub>=288 [[Kelvin]]) and at the middle of the [[troposphere]] (T<sub>a</sub>=242 Kelvin) that are close to observed average values:<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/atmosphericwarming/singlelayermodel.html |title=ACS Climate Science Toolkit - Atmospheric Warming - A Single-Layer Atmosphere Model |publisher=American Chemical Society |accessdate=30 September 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230525201203/https://www.acs.org/climatescience/atmosphericwarming/singlelayermodel.html |archive-date=2023-05-25}}</ref> |
||
Line 52: | Line 52: | ||
The [[Earth's internal heat budget|geothermal heat flow]] from the Earth's interior is estimated to be 47 [[terawatt]]s (TW)<ref name="JOURNAL-DAVIES-2010" /> and split approximately equally between [[radioactive decay|radiogenic]] heat and heat left over from the Earth's formation. This corresponds to an average flux of 0.087 W/m<sup>2</sup> and represents only 0.027% of Earth's total energy budget at the surface, being dwarfed by the 173,000 TW of incoming [[solar radiation]].<ref name="BOOK-Archer-2012" /> |
The [[Earth's internal heat budget|geothermal heat flow]] from the Earth's interior is estimated to be 47 [[terawatt]]s (TW)<ref name="JOURNAL-DAVIES-2010" /> and split approximately equally between [[radioactive decay|radiogenic]] heat and heat left over from the Earth's formation. This corresponds to an average flux of 0.087 W/m<sup>2</sup> and represents only 0.027% of Earth's total energy budget at the surface, being dwarfed by the 173,000 TW of incoming [[solar radiation]].<ref name="BOOK-Archer-2012" /> |
||
[[World energy consumption|Human production of energy]] is even lower at an estimated 160,000 TW-hr for all of year 2019. This corresponds to an average continuous heat flow of about 18 TW.<ref name="owdprime">{{Cite journal |url=https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy?country=~OWID_WRL |title=Global Direct Primary Energy Consumption |author1=Hannah Ritchie |author1-link=Hannah Ritchie |author2=Max Roser |author2-link=Max Roser |journal=Our World in Data |publisher=Published online at OurWorldInData.org. |year=2020 |access-date=2020-02-09}}</ref> However, consumption is growing rapidly and energy production with fossil fuels also produces an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases, leading to a more than 20 times larger [[#Earth's energy imbalance (EEI)|imbalance]] in the incoming/outgoing flows that originate from solar radiation.<ref name="20220112_SciAm">{{cite web |url= https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/oceans-break-heat-record-for-third-year-in-a-row/ |title=Oceans break heat record for third year in a row |author=Chelsea Harvey |date=2022-01-12 |publisher=[[Scientific American]]}}</ref> |
[[World energy consumption|Human production of energy]] is even lower at an estimated 160,000 TW-hr for all of year 2019. This corresponds to an average continuous heat flow of about 18 TW.<ref name="owdprime">{{Cite journal |url=https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy?country=~OWID_WRL |title=Global Direct Primary Energy Consumption |author1=Hannah Ritchie |author1-link=Hannah Ritchie |author2=Max Roser |author2-link=Max Roser |journal=Our World in Data |publisher=Published online at OurWorldInData.org. |year=2020 |access-date=2020-02-09}}</ref> However, consumption is growing rapidly and energy production with fossil fuels also produces an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases, leading to a more than 20 times larger [[#Earth's energy imbalance (EEI)|imbalance]] in the incoming/outgoing flows that originate from solar radiation.<ref name="20220112_SciAm">{{cite web |url= https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/oceans-break-heat-record-for-third-year-in-a-row/ |title=Oceans break heat record for third year in a row |author=Chelsea Harvey |date=2022-01-12 |publisher=[[Scientific American]]}}</ref> |
||
[[Photosynthesis]] also has a significant effect: An estimated 140 TW (or around 0.08%) of incident energy gets captured by photosynthesis, giving energy to plants to produce [[primary production|biomass]].<ref name="WEB-Donev-EnergyFlow" /> A similar flow of thermal energy is released over the course of a year when plants are used as food or fuel. |
[[Photosynthesis]] also has a significant effect: An estimated 140 TW (or around 0.08%) of incident energy gets captured by photosynthesis, giving energy to plants to produce [[primary production|biomass]].<ref name="WEB-Donev-EnergyFlow" /> A similar flow of thermal energy is released over the course of a year when plants are used as food or fuel. |
||
Line 65: | Line 65: | ||
===Internal flow analysis=== |
===Internal flow analysis=== |
||
To describe some of the internal flows within the budget, let the insolation received at the top of the atmosphere be 100 units (=340 W/m<sup>2</sup>), as shown in the accompanying Sankey diagram. Called the |
To describe some of the internal flows within the budget, let the insolation received at the top of the atmosphere be 100 units (=340 W/m<sup>2</sup>), as shown in the accompanying Sankey diagram. Called the albedo of Earth, around 35 units in this example are directly reflected back to space: 27 from the top of clouds, 2 from snow and ice-covered areas, and 6 by other parts of the atmosphere. The 65 remaining units (ASR=220 W/m<sup>2</sup>) are absorbed: 14 within the atmosphere and 51 by the Earth's surface. |
||
The 51 units reaching and absorbed by the surface are emitted back to space through various forms of terrestrial energy: 17 directly radiated to space and 34 absorbed by the atmosphere (19 through [[latent heat of vaporisation]], 9 via convection and turbulence, and 6 as absorbed infrared by [[greenhouse gases]]). The 48 units absorbed by the atmosphere (34 units from terrestrial energy and 14 from insolation) are then finally radiated back to space. This simplified example neglects some details of mechanisms that recirculate, store, and thus lead to further buildup of heat near the surface. |
The 51 units reaching and absorbed by the surface are emitted back to space through various forms of terrestrial energy: 17 directly radiated to space and 34 absorbed by the atmosphere (19 through [[latent heat of vaporisation]], 9 via convection and turbulence, and 6 as absorbed infrared by [[greenhouse gases]]). The 48 units absorbed by the atmosphere (34 units from terrestrial energy and 14 from insolation) are then finally radiated back to space. This simplified example neglects some details of mechanisms that recirculate, store, and thus lead to further buildup of heat near the surface. |
||
Line 74: | Line 74: | ||
[[File:Earth's Heat Accumulation.png|thumb|320px|The rising accumulation of energy in the oceanic, land, ice, and atmospheric components of Earth's climate system since 1960.<ref name="EarthSysSciData_20230417" />]] Land, ice, and oceans are active material constituents of Earth's climate system along with the atmosphere. They have far greater mass and [[heat capacity]], and thus much more [[thermal inertia]]. When radiation is directly absorbed or the surface temperature changes, [[thermal energy]] will flow as [[sensible heat]] either into or out of the bulk mass of these components via conduction/convection [[heat transfer]] processes. The transformation of water between its solid/liquid/vapor states also acts as a source or sink of [[potential energy]] in the form of [[latent heat]]. These processes buffer the surface conditions against some of the rapid radiative changes in the atmosphere. As a result, the daytime versus nighttime difference in surface temperatures is relatively small. Likewise, Earth's climate system as a whole shows a [[climate inertia|slow response]] to shifts in the atmospheric radiation balance.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/HeatBucket/heatbucket.php |title=Earth's Big Heat Bucket |publisher=NASA Earth Observatory |author=Michon Scott |date=2006-04-24}}</ref> |
[[File:Earth's Heat Accumulation.png|thumb|320px|The rising accumulation of energy in the oceanic, land, ice, and atmospheric components of Earth's climate system since 1960.<ref name="EarthSysSciData_20230417" />]] Land, ice, and oceans are active material constituents of Earth's climate system along with the atmosphere. They have far greater mass and [[heat capacity]], and thus much more [[thermal inertia]]. When radiation is directly absorbed or the surface temperature changes, [[thermal energy]] will flow as [[sensible heat]] either into or out of the bulk mass of these components via conduction/convection [[heat transfer]] processes. The transformation of water between its solid/liquid/vapor states also acts as a source or sink of [[potential energy]] in the form of [[latent heat]]. These processes buffer the surface conditions against some of the rapid radiative changes in the atmosphere. As a result, the daytime versus nighttime difference in surface temperatures is relatively small. Likewise, Earth's climate system as a whole shows a [[climate inertia|slow response]] to shifts in the atmospheric radiation balance.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/HeatBucket/heatbucket.php |title=Earth's Big Heat Bucket |publisher=NASA Earth Observatory |author=Michon Scott |date=2006-04-24}}</ref> |
||
The top few meters of Earth's oceans harbor more thermal energy than its entire atmosphere.<ref name=nvsohc>{{cite web |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/ |title=Vital Signs of the Plant: Ocean Heat Content |publisher=NASA |accessdate=2021-11-15}}</ref> Like atmospheric gases, [[fluid |
The top few meters of Earth's oceans harbor more thermal energy than its entire atmosphere.<ref name=nvsohc>{{cite web |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-heat/ |title=Vital Signs of the Plant: Ocean Heat Content |publisher=NASA |accessdate=2021-11-15}}</ref> Like atmospheric gases, [[fluid]]ic ocean waters transport vast amounts of such energy over the planet's surface. Sensible heat also moves into and out of great depths under conditions that favor [[downwelling]] or [[upwelling]].<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/education-careers/education-program/k-12-teachers/project-atmosphere/training-opportunities/project-atmosphere-peer-led-training/project-atmosphere-peer-training-resources/air-sea/ |title=Air-Sea interaction: Teacher's guide |publisher=[[American Meteorological Society]] |year=2012 |access-date=2021-11-15}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://oceanmotion.org/html/background/upwelling-and-downwelling.htm|title=Ocean Motion : Definition : Wind Driven Surface Currents - Upwelling and Downwelling|access-date=2021-11-15}}</ref> |
||
Over 90 percent of the extra energy that has accumulated on Earth from ongoing global warming since 1970 has been [[ocean heat content|stored in the ocean]].<ref name=nvsohc/> About one-third has propagated to depths below 700 meters. The overall rate of growth has also risen during recent decades, reaching close to 500 TW (1 W/m<sup>2</sup>) as of 2020.<ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20210615 /><ref name=EarthSysSciData_20230417 /> That led to about 14 [[zettajoules]] (ZJ) of heat gain for the year, exceeding the 570 [[exajoules]] (=160,000 TW-hr<ref name="owdprime" />) of [[primary energy|total primary energy]] consumed by humans by a factor of at least 20.<ref name="20220112_SciAm" /> |
Over 90 percent of the extra energy that has accumulated on Earth from ongoing global warming since 1970 has been [[ocean heat content|stored in the ocean]].<ref name=nvsohc/> About one-third has propagated to depths below 700 meters. The overall rate of growth has also risen during recent decades, reaching close to 500 TW (1 W/m<sup>2</sup>) as of 2020.<ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20210615 /><ref name=EarthSysSciData_20230417 /> That led to about 14 [[zettajoules]] (ZJ) of heat gain for the year, exceeding the 570 [[exajoules]] (=160,000 TW-hr<ref name="owdprime" />) of [[primary energy|total primary energy]] consumed by humans by a factor of at least 20.<ref name="20220112_SciAm" /> |
||
Line 89: | Line 89: | ||
Here the term ΔE<sub>T</sub>, corresponding to the [[climate change feedback#Planck feedback|Planck response]], is negative-valued when temperature rises due to its strong direct influence on OLR.<ref name=Climate_20181215 /><ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20210615 /> |
Here the term ΔE<sub>T</sub>, corresponding to the [[climate change feedback#Planck feedback|Planck response]], is negative-valued when temperature rises due to its strong direct influence on OLR.<ref name=Climate_20181215 /><ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20210615 /> |
||
The recent increase in trace greenhouse gases produces an enhanced greenhouse effect, and thus a positive ΔE<sub>G</sub> forcing term. By contrast, a large volcanic eruption (e.g. [[1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo|Mount Pinatubo 1991]], [[El Chichón]] 1982) can inject sulfur-containing compounds into the upper atmosphere. High concentrations of [[stratospheric sulfur aerosols]] may persist for up to a few years, yielding a negative forcing contribution to ΔE<sub>A</sub>.<ref name=RevGeophys20000501 /><ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20140718 /> Various other types of anthropogenic aerosol emissions make both positive and negative contributions to ΔE<sub>A</sub>. [[Solar cycle]]s produce ΔE<sub>I</sub> smaller in magnitude than those of recent ΔE<sub>G</sub> trends from human activity.<ref name=JOGR20120316 /><ref>{{cite web |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2910/what-is-the-suns-role-in-climate-change/ |title=What Is the Sun's Role in Climate Change? |publisher=NASA |date=2019-09-06}}</ref> |
The recent increase in trace greenhouse gases produces an enhanced greenhouse effect, and thus a positive ΔE<sub>G</sub> forcing term. By contrast, a large volcanic eruption (e.g. [[1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo|Mount Pinatubo 1991]], [[El Chichón]] 1982) can inject sulfur-containing compounds into the upper atmosphere. High concentrations of [[stratospheric sulfur aerosols]] may persist for up to a few years, yielding a negative forcing contribution to ΔE<sub>A</sub>.<ref name=RevGeophys20000501 /><ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20140718 /> Various other types of anthropogenic aerosol emissions make both positive and negative contributions to ΔE<sub>A</sub>. [[Solar cycle]]s produce ΔE<sub>I</sub> smaller in magnitude than those of recent ΔE<sub>G</sub> trends from human activity.<ref name=JOGR20120316 /><ref>{{cite web |url=https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2910/what-is-the-suns-role-in-climate-change/ |title=What Is the Sun's Role in Climate Change? |publisher=NASA |date=2019-09-06}}</ref> |
||
Climate forcings are complex since they can produce direct and indirect [[feedback]]s that intensify ([[positive feedback]]) or weaken ([[negative feedback]]) the original forcing. These often follow the temperature response. Water vapor trends as a positive feedback with respect to temperature changes due to evaporation shifts and the [[Clausius-Clapeyron relation]]. An increase in water vapor results in positive ΔE<sub>W</sub> due to further enhancement of the greenhouse effect. A slower positive feedback is the [[ice-albedo feedback]]. For example, the [[Arctic sea ice decline|loss of Arctic ice]] due to rising temperatures makes the region less reflective, leading to greater absorption of energy and even faster ice melt rates, thus positive influence on ΔE<sub>S</sub>.<ref name="WEB-NASA-LindseyPg7" /> Collectively, feedbacks tend to amplify global warming or cooling.<ref>Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, et al. 2021: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf Technical Summary]. In [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002.</ref>{{rp|94}} |
Climate forcings are complex since they can produce direct and indirect [[feedback]]s that intensify ([[positive feedback]]) or weaken ([[negative feedback]]) the original forcing. These often follow the temperature response. Water vapor trends as a positive feedback with respect to temperature changes due to evaporation shifts and the [[Clausius-Clapeyron relation]]. An increase in water vapor results in positive ΔE<sub>W</sub> due to further enhancement of the greenhouse effect. A slower positive feedback is the [[ice-albedo feedback]]. For example, the [[Arctic sea ice decline|loss of Arctic ice]] due to rising temperatures makes the region less reflective, leading to greater absorption of energy and even faster ice melt rates, thus positive influence on ΔE<sub>S</sub>.<ref name="WEB-NASA-LindseyPg7" /> Collectively, feedbacks tend to amplify global warming or cooling.<ref>Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, et al. 2021: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS.pdf Technical Summary]. In [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002.</ref>{{rp|94}} |
||
Line 97: | Line 97: | ||
== Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) == |
== Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) == |
||
[[File:Earth's heating rate since 2005.jpg|thumb|upright=1.3|The growth in Earth's energy imbalance from satellite and [[in situ]] measurements (2005–2019). A rate of +1.0 W/m<sup>2</sup> summed over the planet's surface equates to a continuous heat uptake of about 500 [[terawatt]]s (~0.3% of the incident solar radiation).<ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20210615 /><ref name=em_20210622 />]] |
[[File:Earth's heating rate since 2005.jpg|thumb|upright=1.3|The growth in Earth's energy imbalance from satellite and [[in situ]] measurements (2005–2019). A rate of +1.0 W/m<sup>2</sup> summed over the planet's surface equates to a continuous heat uptake of about 500 [[terawatt]]s (~0.3% of the incident solar radiation).<ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20210615 /><ref name=em_20210622 />]] |
||
[[File:The-NASA-Earth's-Energy-Budget-Poster-Radiant-Energy-System-satellite-infrared-radiation-fluxes.jpg|thumb|upright=1.5|Earth's energy budget (in in W/m<sup>2</sup>) determines the climate. It is the balance of incoming and outgoing [[radiation]] and can be measured by satellites. The [[#Earth's energy imbalance (EEI)|Earth's energy imbalance]] is the "net absorbed" energy amount and grew from +0.6 W/m<sup>2</sup> (2009 est.<ref name="WEB-NASA-EnergyBudgetPoster" />) to above +1.0 W/m<sup>2</sup> in 2019<ref name="GeophysResLtrs_20210615" /> |
[[File:The-NASA-Earth's-Energy-Budget-Poster-Radiant-Energy-System-satellite-infrared-radiation-fluxes.jpg|thumb|upright=1.5|Earth's energy budget (in in W/m<sup>2</sup>) determines the climate. It is the balance of incoming and outgoing [[radiation]] and can be measured by satellites. The [[#Earth's energy imbalance (EEI)|Earth's energy imbalance]] is the "net absorbed" energy amount and grew from +0.6 W/m<sup>2</sup> (2009 est.<ref name="WEB-NASA-EnergyBudgetPoster" />) to above +1.0 W/m<sup>2</sup> in 2019.<ref name="GeophysResLtrs_20210615" />]]{{See also|Radiative forcing}} |
||
The Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) is defined as "the persistent and positive (downward) net top of atmosphere energy flux associated with greenhouse gas forcing of the climate system".<ref name="IPCC AR6 glossary" />{{rp|2227}} |
The Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) is defined as "the persistent and positive (downward) net top of atmosphere energy flux associated with greenhouse gas forcing of the climate system".<ref name="IPCC AR6 glossary" />{{rp|2227}} |
||
If Earth's incoming energy flux is larger or smaller than the outgoing energy flux, then the planet will gain (warm) or lose (cool) net heat energy in accordance with the [[law of energy conservation]]: |
If Earth's incoming energy flux is larger or smaller than the outgoing energy flux, then the planet will gain (warm) or lose (cool) net heat energy in accordance with the [[law of energy conservation]]: |
||
: <math>EEI \equiv ASR - OLR</math> |
: <math>EEI \equiv ASR - OLR</math> |
||
When Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) shifts by a sufficiently large amount, the shift is measurable by orbiting satellite-based [[radiometry|radiometric instruments]].<ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20140718 /><ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20090909 /> Imbalances that fail to reverse over time will also drive long-term temperature changes in the atmospheric, oceanic, land, and ice components of the |
When Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) shifts by a sufficiently large amount, the shift is measurable by orbiting satellite-based [[radiometry|radiometric instruments]].<ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20140718 /><ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20090909 /> Imbalances that fail to reverse over time will also drive long-term temperature changes in the atmospheric, oceanic, land, and ice components of the climate system.<ref name=OpinEnvSus20091001 /><ref name=NatCliChg20160127 /> In situ temperature changes and related effects thus also provide measures of EEI. From mid-2005 to mid-2019, satellite and ocean temperature observations have each independently shown an approximate doubling of the (global) warming imbalance in Earth's energy budget.<ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20210615 /><ref name=EarthSysSciData_20230417 /> |
||
The biggest changes in EEI arise from changes in the composition of the atmosphere through human activities, thereby interfering with the natural flow of energy through the climate system.<ref name="Trenberth2022" /> The main changes are from increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, that produce heating (EEI increasing), and pollution. The latter refers to atmospheric aerosols of various kinds, some of which absorb energy while others reflect energy and produce cooling. |
The biggest changes in EEI arise from changes in the composition of the atmosphere through human activities, thereby interfering with the natural flow of energy through the climate system.<ref name="Trenberth2022" /> The main changes are from increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, that produce heating (EEI increasing), and pollution. The latter refers to atmospheric aerosols of various kinds, some of which absorb energy while others reflect energy and produce cooling. |
||
Line 115: | Line 115: | ||
[[File:NASA's 2011 fleet of Earth remote sensing observatories.ogv|thumb|left|upright=1.3|Animation of the orbits of NASA's 2011 fleet of Earth remote sensing observatories.]] |
[[File:NASA's 2011 fleet of Earth remote sensing observatories.ogv|thumb|left|upright=1.3|Animation of the orbits of NASA's 2011 fleet of Earth remote sensing observatories.]] |
||
Other researchers have used data from CERES, [[atmospheric infrared sounder|AIRS]], [[CloudSat]], and other EOS instruments to look for trends of [[radiative forcing]] embedded within the EEI data. Their analysis showed a forcing rise of {{val|+0.53|0.11|u=W/m2}} from years 2003 to 2018. About 80% of the increase was associated with the rising concentration of |
Other researchers have used data from CERES, [[atmospheric infrared sounder|AIRS]], [[CloudSat]], and other EOS instruments to look for trends of [[radiative forcing]] embedded within the EEI data. Their analysis showed a forcing rise of {{val|+0.53|0.11|u=W/m2}} from years 2003 to 2018. About 80% of the increase was associated with the rising concentration of greenhouse gases which reduced the outgoing longwave radiation.<ref name="GeophysResLtrs_20210325" /><ref>{{cite web |url=https://news.umbc.edu/umbcs-ryan-kramer-confirms-human-caused-climate-change-with-direct-evidence-for-first-time/ |title=UMBC's Ryan Kramer confirms human-caused climate change with direct evidence for first time |publisher=University of Maryland, Baltimore County |date=12 April 2021 |author=Sarah Hansen}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=https://phys.org/news/2021-03-humans-earth-energy.html |title=Direct observations confirm that humans are throwing Earth's energy budget off balance |website=phys.org |date=26 March 2021}}</ref> |
||
Further satellite measurements including [[TRMM]] and [[CALIPSO]] data have indicated additional precipitation, which is sustained by increased energy leaving the surface through evaporation (the latent heat flux), offsetting some of the increase in the longwave greenhouse flux to the surface.<ref name="JOURNAL-Stephens-2012" /> |
Further satellite measurements including [[TRMM]] and [[CALIPSO]] data have indicated additional precipitation, which is sustained by increased energy leaving the surface through evaporation (the latent heat flux), offsetting some of the increase in the longwave greenhouse flux to the surface.<ref name="JOURNAL-Stephens-2012" /> |
||
Line 136: | Line 136: | ||
}} |
}} |
||
EEI has been positive because temperatures have increased almost everywhere for over 50 years. [[Global surface temperature]] (GST) is calculated by averaging temperatures measured at the surface of the sea along with air temperatures measured over land. Reliable data extending to at least 1880 shows that GST has undergone a steady increase of about 0.18°C per decade since about year 1970.<ref name="nasa temperatures">{{cite web |title=Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change |url=https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/ |publisher=NASA |access-date=23 February 2020}}</ref> |
EEI has been positive because temperatures have increased almost everywhere for over 50 years. [[Global surface temperature]] (GST) is calculated by averaging temperatures measured at the surface of the sea along with air temperatures measured over land. Reliable data extending to at least 1880 shows that GST has undergone a steady increase of about 0.18 °C per decade since about year 1970.<ref name="nasa temperatures">{{cite web |title=Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change |url=https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/ |publisher=NASA |access-date=23 February 2020}}</ref> |
||
Ocean waters are especially effective absorbents of solar energy and have a far greater total [[heat capacity]] than the atmosphere.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content |title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content |author=LuAnn Dahlman and Rebecca Lindsey |publisher=NOAA |date=2020-08-17}}</ref> Research vessels and stations have sampled sea temperatures at depth and around the globe since before 1960. Additionally, after the year 2000, an expanding network of over 3000 [[Argo (oceanography)|Argo robotic floats]] has measured the temperature anomaly, or equivalently the |
Ocean waters are especially effective absorbents of solar energy and have a far greater total [[heat capacity]] than the atmosphere.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content |title=Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content |author=LuAnn Dahlman and Rebecca Lindsey |publisher=NOAA |date=2020-08-17}}</ref> Research vessels and stations have sampled sea temperatures at depth and around the globe since before 1960. Additionally, after the year 2000, an expanding network of over 3000 [[Argo (oceanography)|Argo robotic floats]] has measured the temperature anomaly, or equivalently the ocean heat content change (ΔOHC). Since at least 1990, OHC has increased at a steady or accelerating rate. ΔOHC represents the largest portion of EEI since oceans have thus far taken up over 90% of the net excess energy entering the system:<ref name=JClim20220715 /><ref name=RevGeophys20130819 /> |
||
: <math>EEI \gtrsim \Delta OHC / \Delta t</math> |
: <math>EEI \gtrsim \Delta OHC / \Delta t</math> |
||
Line 155: | Line 155: | ||
Climate scientists [[Kevin Trenberth]], [[James Hansen]], and colleagues have identified the monitoring of Earth's energy imbalance as an important metric to help policymakers guide the pace for [[Climate change mitigation|mitigation]] and [[Climate change adaptation|adaptation]] measures. Because of [[climate inertia|climate system inertia]], longer-term EEI (Earth's energy imbalance) trends can forecast further changes that are "in the pipeline".<ref name=OpinEnvSus20091001 /><ref name=NatCliChg20160127 /><ref name=AtmosChemPhys20111222 /> |
Climate scientists [[Kevin Trenberth]], [[James Hansen]], and colleagues have identified the monitoring of Earth's energy imbalance as an important metric to help policymakers guide the pace for [[Climate change mitigation|mitigation]] and [[Climate change adaptation|adaptation]] measures. Because of [[climate inertia|climate system inertia]], longer-term EEI (Earth's energy imbalance) trends can forecast further changes that are "in the pipeline".<ref name=OpinEnvSus20091001 /><ref name=NatCliChg20160127 /><ref name=AtmosChemPhys20111222 /> |
||
Scientists found that the EEI is the most important metric related to climate change. It is the net result of all the processes and feedbacks in play in the climate system.<ref name="Trenberth2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Trenberth |first1=Kevin E |last2=Cheng |first2=Lijing |date=2022-09-01 |title=A perspective on climate change from Earth's energy imbalance |journal=Environmental Research: Climate |volume=1 |issue=1 |pages=013001 |doi=10.1088/2752-5295/ac6f74 |issn=2752-5295 |doi-access=free}} [[File:CC-BY icon.svg|50px]] Text was copied from this source, which is available under a [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License]</ref> Knowing how much extra energy affects weather systems and rainfall is vital to understand the increasing weather extremes.<ref name="Trenberth2022" /> |
Scientists found that the EEI is the most important metric related to climate change. It is the net result of all the processes and feedbacks in play in the climate system.<ref name="Trenberth2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Trenberth |first1=Kevin E |last2=Cheng |first2=Lijing |date=2022-09-01 |title=A perspective on climate change from Earth's energy imbalance |journal=Environmental Research: Climate |volume=1 |issue=1 |pages=013001 |doi=10.1088/2752-5295/ac6f74 |issn=2752-5295 |doi-access=free}} [[File:CC-BY icon.svg|50px]] Text was copied from this source, which is available under a [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License]</ref> Knowing how much extra energy affects weather systems and rainfall is vital to understand the increasing weather extremes.<ref name="Trenberth2022" /> |
||
In 2012, [[NASA]] scientists reported that to stop [[global warming]] atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration would have to be reduced to 350 ppm or less, assuming all other climate forcings were fixed.<ref name="WEB-Hansen-2012-EnergyImbalance" /> As of 2020, atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> reached 415 ppm and all [[list of greenhouse gases|long-lived greenhouse gases]] exceeded a 500 ppm [[CO2-eq|{{CO2}}-equivalent]] concentration due to continued growth in human emissions.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/ |title=NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (An Introduction) |publisher=NOAA |access-date=2021-08-04}}</ref> |
In 2012, [[NASA]] scientists reported that to stop [[global warming]] atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration would have to be reduced to 350 ppm or less, assuming all other climate forcings were fixed.<ref name="WEB-Hansen-2012-EnergyImbalance" /> As of 2020, atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> reached 415 ppm and all [[list of greenhouse gases|long-lived greenhouse gases]] exceeded a 500 ppm [[CO2-eq|{{CO2}}-equivalent]] concentration due to continued growth in human emissions.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/ |title=NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (An Introduction) |publisher=NOAA |access-date=2021-08-04}}</ref> |
||
Line 189: | Line 189: | ||
<ref name=Climate_20181215>{{cite journal |last1=Thorsen |first1=Tyler J. |last2=Kato |first2=Seiji |last3=Loeb |first3=Norman G. |last4=Rose |first4=Fred G. |title=Observation-Based Decomposition of Radiative Perturbations and Radiative Kernels |journal=Journal of Climate |date=15 December 2018 |volume=31 |issue=24 |pages=10039–10058 |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0045.1 |pmid=35095187 |pmc=8793621 |bibcode=2018JCli...3110039T |issn=0894-8755 |doi-access=free }}</ref> |
<ref name=Climate_20181215>{{cite journal |last1=Thorsen |first1=Tyler J. |last2=Kato |first2=Seiji |last3=Loeb |first3=Norman G. |last4=Rose |first4=Fred G. |title=Observation-Based Decomposition of Radiative Perturbations and Radiative Kernels |journal=Journal of Climate |date=15 December 2018 |volume=31 |issue=24 |pages=10039–10058 |doi=10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0045.1 |pmid=35095187 |pmc=8793621 |bibcode=2018JCli...3110039T |issn=0894-8755 |doi-access=free }}</ref> |
||
<ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20210615>{{cite journal |last1=Loeb |first1=Norman G. |last2=Johnson |first2=Gregory C. |last3=Thorsen |first3=Tyler J. |last4=Lyman |first4=John M. |last5=Rose |first5=Fred G. |last6=Kato |first6=Seiji |display-authors=4 |title=Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth's Heating Rate |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |date=15 June 2021 |volume=48 |issue=13 |doi=10.1029/2021GL093047 |bibcode=2021GeoRL..4893047L |doi-access=free }}</ref> |
<ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20210615>{{cite journal |last1=Loeb |first1=Norman G. |last2=Johnson |first2=Gregory C. |last3=Thorsen |first3=Tyler J. |last4=Lyman |first4=John M. |last5=Rose |first5=Fred G. |last6=Kato |first6=Seiji |display-authors=4 |title=Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth's Heating Rate |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |date=15 June 2021 |volume=48 |issue=13 |doi=10.1029/2021GL093047 |bibcode=2021GeoRL..4893047L |doi-access=free }}</ref> |
||
<ref name=NatCliChg20160127>{{cite journal |last1=von Schuckman |first1=K. |last2=Palmer |first2=M. D. |last3=Trenberth |first3=K. E. |last4=Cazenave |first4=A. |author-link=Anny Cazenave |last5=Chambers |first5=D. |last6=Champollion |first6=N. |last7=Hansen |first7=J. |last8=Josey |first8=S. A. |last9=Loeb |first9=N |last10=Mathieu |first10=P. P. |last11=Meyssignac |first11=B. |last12=Wild |first12=N. |display-authors=4 |title=An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance |journal=Nature Climate Change |date=27 January 2016 |doi=10.1038/NCLIMATE2876 |doi-access=free |volume=6 |issue=2 | |
<ref name=NatCliChg20160127>{{cite journal |last1=von Schuckman |first1=K. |last2=Palmer |first2=M. D. |last3=Trenberth |first3=K. E. |last4=Cazenave |first4=A. |author-link=Anny Cazenave |last5=Chambers |first5=D. |last6=Champollion |first6=N. |last7=Hansen |first7=J. |last8=Josey |first8=S. A. |last9=Loeb |first9=N |last10=Mathieu |first10=P. P. |last11=Meyssignac |first11=B. |last12=Wild |first12=N. |display-authors=4 |title=An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance |journal=Nature Climate Change |date=27 January 2016 |doi=10.1038/NCLIMATE2876 |doi-access=free |volume=6 |issue=2 |pages=138–144 |bibcode=2016NatCC...6..138V }}</ref> |
||
<ref name=EarthSysSciData_20230417>{{cite journal |last1=von Schuckmann |first1=Karina |last2=Minière |first2=Audrey. |last3=Gues |first3=Flora |last4=Cuesta-Valero |first4=Francisco José |last5=Kirchengast |first5=Gottfried |last6=Adusumilli |first6=Susheel |last7=Straneo |first7=Flammetta |last8=Ablain |first8=Michaël |last9=Allen |first9=Richard P. |last10=Barker |first10=Paul M. |display-authors=7 |title=Heat stored in the Earth system 1960-2020: where does the energy go? |journal=Earth System Science Data |date=17 April 2023 |doi=10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023 |doi-access=free |url=https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1675/2023/essd-15-1675-2023.html |volume=15 |issue=4 |page=1675-1709 [[File:CC-BY icon.svg|50px]] Material was copied from this source, which is available under a [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License]}}</ref> |
<ref name=EarthSysSciData_20230417>{{cite journal |last1=von Schuckmann |first1=Karina |last2=Minière |first2=Audrey. |last3=Gues |first3=Flora |last4=Cuesta-Valero |first4=Francisco José |last5=Kirchengast |first5=Gottfried |last6=Adusumilli |first6=Susheel |last7=Straneo |first7=Flammetta |last8=Ablain |first8=Michaël |last9=Allen |first9=Richard P. |last10=Barker |first10=Paul M. |display-authors=7 |title=Heat stored in the Earth system 1960-2020: where does the energy go? |journal=Earth System Science Data |date=17 April 2023 |doi=10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023 |doi-access=free |url=https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1675/2023/essd-15-1675-2023.html |volume=15 |issue=4 |page=1675-1709 [[File:CC-BY icon.svg|50px]] Material was copied from this source, which is available under a [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License]}}</ref> |
||
<ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20090909>{{cite journal |last1=Murphy |first1=D. M. |last2=Solomon |first2=S. |last3=Portmann |first3=R. W. |last4=Rosenlof |first4=K. H. |last5=Forster |first5=P. M. |last6=Wong |first6=T. |display-authors=4 |title=An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950 |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |date=9 September 2009 |volume=114 |issue=D17 |doi=10.1029/2009JD012105 |bibcode=2009JGRD..11417107M |doi-access=free }}</ref> |
<ref name=GeophysResLtrs_20090909>{{cite journal |last1=Murphy |first1=D. M. |last2=Solomon |first2=S. |last3=Portmann |first3=R. W. |last4=Rosenlof |first4=K. H. |last5=Forster |first5=P. M. |last6=Wong |first6=T. |display-authors=4 |title=An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950 |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |date=9 September 2009 |volume=114 |issue=D17 |doi=10.1029/2009JD012105 |bibcode=2009JGRD..11417107M |doi-access=free }}</ref> |
Revision as of 21:16, 15 December 2023
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ec/16.8_sunEarth_energy_imbalancev2.png/310px-16.8_sunEarth_energy_imbalancev2.png)
Earth's energy budget (or Earth's energy balance) accounts for the balance between the energy that Earth receives from the Sun and the energy the Earth loses back into outer space. Smaller energy sources, such as Earth's internal heat, are taken into consideration, but make a tiny contribution compared to solar energy. The energy budget also accounts for how energy moves through the climate system.[2]: 2227 Because the Sun heats the equatorial tropics more than the polar regions, received solar irradiance is unevenly distributed. As the energy seeks equilibrium across the planet, it drives interactions in Earth's climate system, i.e., Earth's water, ice, atmosphere, rocky crust, and all living things.[2]: 2224 The result is Earth's climate.
Earth's energy budget depends on many factors, such as atmospheric aerosols, greenhouse gases, the planet's surface albedo (reflectivity), clouds, vegetation, land use patterns, and more. When the incoming and outgoing energy fluxes are in balance, Earth is in radiative equilibrium and the climate system will be relatively stable. Global warming occurs when earth receives more energy than it gives back to space, and global cooling takes place when the outgoing energy is greater.[3]
Multiple types of measurements and observations show a warming imbalance since at least year 1970.[4][5] The rate of heating from this human-caused event is without precedent.[6]: 54 The main origin of changes in the Earth's energy is from human-induced changes in the composition of the atmosphere.[1] During 2005 to 2019 the Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) averaged about 460 TW or globally 0.90 ± 0.15 W per m2.[1]
When the energy budget changes, there is a delay before average global surface temperature changes significantly. This is due to the thermal inertia of the oceans, land and cryosphere.[7] Accurate quantification of these energy flows and storage amounts is a requirement within most climate models.
Definition
Earth's energy budget includes the "major energy flows of relevance for the climate system".[2] These are "the top-of-atmosphere energy budget; the surface energy budget; changes in the global energy inventory and internal flows of energy within the climate system".[2]: 2227
Earth's energy flows
In spite of the enormous transfers of energy into and from the Earth, it maintains a relatively constant temperature because, as a whole, there is little net gain or loss: Earth emits via atmospheric and terrestrial radiation (shifted to longer electromagnetic wavelengths) to space about the same amount of energy as it receives via solar insolation (all forms of electromagnetic radiation).
The main origin of changes in the Earth's energy is from human-induced changes in the composition of the atmosphere, amounting to about 460 TW or globally 0.90 ± 0.15 W per m2.[1]
Incoming solar energy (shortwave radiation)
The total amount of energy received per second at the top of Earth's atmosphere (TOA) is measured in watts and is given by the solar constant times the cross-sectional area of the Earth corresponded to the radiation. Because the surface area of a sphere is four times the cross-sectional area of a sphere (i.e. the area of a circle), the globally and yearly averaged TOA flux is one quarter of the solar constant and so is approximately 340 watts per square meter (W/m2).[8][9] Since the absorption varies with location as well as with diurnal, seasonal and annual variations, the numbers quoted are multi-year averages obtained from multiple satellite measurements.[8]
Of the ~340 W/m2 of solar radiation received by the Earth, an average of ~77 W/m2 is reflected back to space by clouds and the atmosphere and ~23 W/m2 is reflected by the surface albedo, leaving ~240 W/m2 of solar energy input to the Earth's energy budget. This amount is called the absorbed solar radiation (ASR). It implies a value of about 0.3 for the mean net albedo of Earth, also called its Bond albedo (A):[8]
Outgoing longwave radiation
Thermal energy leaves the planet in the form of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Longwave radiation is electromagnetic thermal radiation emitted by Earth's surface and atmosphere. Longwave radiation is in the infrared band. But, the terms are not synonymous, as infrared radiation can be either shortwave or longwave. Sunlight contains significant amounts of shortwave infrared radiation. A threshold wavelength of 4 microns is sometimes used to distinguish longwave and shortwave radiation.
Generally, absorbed solar energy is converted to different forms of heat energy. Some of the solar energy absorbed by the surface is converted to thermal radiation at wavelengths in the "atmospheric window"; this radiation is able to pass through the atmosphere unimpeded and directly escape to space, contributing to OLR. The remainder of absorbed solar energy is transported upwards through the atmosphere through a variety of heat transfer mechanisms, until the atmosphere emits that energy as thermal energy which is able to escape to space, again contributing to OLR. For example, heat is transported into the atmosphere via evapotranspiration and latent heat fluxes or conduction/convection processes, as well as via radiative heat transport.[8] Ultimately, all outgoing energy is radiated into space in the form of longwave radiation.
The transport of longwave radiation from Earth's surface through its multi-layered atmosphere is governed by radiative transfer equations such as Schwarzschild's equation for radiative transfer (or more complex equations if scattering is present) and obeys Kirchoff's law of thermal radiation.
A one-layer model produces an approximate description of OLR which yields temperatures at the surface (Ts=288 Kelvin) and at the middle of the troposphere (Ta=242 Kelvin) that are close to observed average values:[10]
In this expression σ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant and ε represents the emissivity of the atmosphere, which is less than 1 because the atmosphere does not emit within the wavelength range known as the atmospheric window.
Aerosols, clouds, water vapor, and trace greenhouse gases contribute to an effective value of about ε=0.78. The strong (fourth-power) temperature sensitivity maintains a near-balance of the outgoing energy flow to the incoming flow via small changes in the planet's absolute temperatures.
Role of the greenhouse effect
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c5/Non-cloud_Greenhouse_Effect_metrics_time_series.svg/290px-Non-cloud_Greenhouse_Effect_metrics_time_series.svg.png)
As viewed from Earth's surrounding space, greenhouse gases influence the planet's atmospheric emissivity (ε). Changes in atmospheric composition can thus shift the overall radiation balance. For example, an increase in heat trapping by a growing concentration of greenhouse gases (i.e. an enhanced greenhouse effect) forces a decrease in OLR and a warming (restorative) energy imbalance.[11] Ultimately when the amount of greenhouse gases increases or decreases, in-situ surface temperatures rise or fall until the ASR = OLR balance is again achieved.
The greenhouse effect occurs when greenhouse gases in a planet's atmosphere insulate the planet from losing heat to space, raising its surface temperature. Surface heating can happen from an internal heat source as in the case of Jupiter, or from its host star as in the case of the Earth. In the case of Earth, the Sun emits shortwave radiation (sunlight) that passes through greenhouse gases to heat the Earth's surface. In response, the Earth's surface emits longwave radiation that is mostly absorbed by greenhouse gases. The absorption of longwave radiation prevents it from reaching space, reducing the rate at which the Earth can cool off.
Without the greenhouse effect, the Earth's average surface temperature would be about −18 °C (−0.4 °F),[12][13] compared to the 20th century average of about 14 °C (57 °F), or a more recent average of about 15 °C (59 °F).[14][15] In addition to naturally present greenhouse gases, burning of fossil fuels has increased amounts of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere.[16][17] As a result, global warming of about 1.2 °C (2.2 °F) has occurred since the Industrial Revolution,[18] with the global average surface temperature increasing at a rate of 0.18 °C (0.32 °F) per decade since 1981.[19]Earth's internal heat sources and other small effects
The geothermal heat flow from the Earth's interior is estimated to be 47 terawatts (TW)[20] and split approximately equally between radiogenic heat and heat left over from the Earth's formation. This corresponds to an average flux of 0.087 W/m2 and represents only 0.027% of Earth's total energy budget at the surface, being dwarfed by the 173,000 TW of incoming solar radiation.[21]
Human production of energy is even lower at an estimated 160,000 TW-hr for all of year 2019. This corresponds to an average continuous heat flow of about 18 TW.[22] However, consumption is growing rapidly and energy production with fossil fuels also produces an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases, leading to a more than 20 times larger imbalance in the incoming/outgoing flows that originate from solar radiation.[23]
Photosynthesis also has a significant effect: An estimated 140 TW (or around 0.08%) of incident energy gets captured by photosynthesis, giving energy to plants to produce biomass.[24] A similar flow of thermal energy is released over the course of a year when plants are used as food or fuel.
Other minor sources of energy are usually ignored in the calculations, including accretion of interplanetary dust and solar wind, light from stars other than the Sun and the thermal radiation from space. Earlier, Joseph Fourier had claimed that deep space radiation was significant in a paper often cited as the first on the greenhouse effect.[25]
Budget analysis
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/29/Earth_heat_balance_Sankey_diagram.svg/290px-Earth_heat_balance_Sankey_diagram.svg.png)
In simplest terms, Earth's energy budget is balanced when the incoming flow equals the outgoing flow. Since a portion of incoming energy is directly reflected, the balance can also be stated as absorbed incoming solar (shortwave) radiation equal to outgoing longwave radiation:
Internal flow analysis
To describe some of the internal flows within the budget, let the insolation received at the top of the atmosphere be 100 units (=340 W/m2), as shown in the accompanying Sankey diagram. Called the albedo of Earth, around 35 units in this example are directly reflected back to space: 27 from the top of clouds, 2 from snow and ice-covered areas, and 6 by other parts of the atmosphere. The 65 remaining units (ASR=220 W/m2) are absorbed: 14 within the atmosphere and 51 by the Earth's surface.
The 51 units reaching and absorbed by the surface are emitted back to space through various forms of terrestrial energy: 17 directly radiated to space and 34 absorbed by the atmosphere (19 through latent heat of vaporisation, 9 via convection and turbulence, and 6 as absorbed infrared by greenhouse gases). The 48 units absorbed by the atmosphere (34 units from terrestrial energy and 14 from insolation) are then finally radiated back to space. This simplified example neglects some details of mechanisms that recirculate, store, and thus lead to further buildup of heat near the surface.
Ultimately the 65 units (17 from the ground and 48 from the atmosphere) are emitted as OLR. They approximately balance the 65 units (ASR) absorbed from the sun in order to maintain a net-zero gain of energy by Earth.[26]
Heat storage reservoirs
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/59/Earth%27s_Heat_Accumulation.png/320px-Earth%27s_Heat_Accumulation.png)
Land, ice, and oceans are active material constituents of Earth's climate system along with the atmosphere. They have far greater mass and heat capacity, and thus much more thermal inertia. When radiation is directly absorbed or the surface temperature changes, thermal energy will flow as sensible heat either into or out of the bulk mass of these components via conduction/convection heat transfer processes. The transformation of water between its solid/liquid/vapor states also acts as a source or sink of potential energy in the form of latent heat. These processes buffer the surface conditions against some of the rapid radiative changes in the atmosphere. As a result, the daytime versus nighttime difference in surface temperatures is relatively small. Likewise, Earth's climate system as a whole shows a slow response to shifts in the atmospheric radiation balance.[27]
The top few meters of Earth's oceans harbor more thermal energy than its entire atmosphere.[28] Like atmospheric gases, fluidic ocean waters transport vast amounts of such energy over the planet's surface. Sensible heat also moves into and out of great depths under conditions that favor downwelling or upwelling.[29][30]
Over 90 percent of the extra energy that has accumulated on Earth from ongoing global warming since 1970 has been stored in the ocean.[28] About one-third has propagated to depths below 700 meters. The overall rate of growth has also risen during recent decades, reaching close to 500 TW (1 W/m2) as of 2020.[31][5] That led to about 14 zettajoules (ZJ) of heat gain for the year, exceeding the 570 exajoules (=160,000 TW-hr[22]) of total primary energy consumed by humans by a factor of at least 20.[23]
Heating/cooling rate analysis
Generally speaking, changes to Earth's energy flux balance can be thought of as being the result of external forcings (both natural and anthropogenic, radiative and non-radiative), system feedbacks, and internal system variability.[32] Such changes are primarily expressed as observable shifts in temperature (T), clouds (C), water vapor (W), aerosols (A), trace greenhouse gases (G), land/ocean/ice surface reflectance (S), and as minor shifts in insolaton (I) among other possible factors. Earth's heating/cooling rate can then be analyzed over selected timeframes (Δt) as the net change in energy (ΔE) associated with these attributes:
Here the term ΔET, corresponding to the Planck response, is negative-valued when temperature rises due to its strong direct influence on OLR.[33][31]
The recent increase in trace greenhouse gases produces an enhanced greenhouse effect, and thus a positive ΔEG forcing term. By contrast, a large volcanic eruption (e.g. Mount Pinatubo 1991, El Chichón 1982) can inject sulfur-containing compounds into the upper atmosphere. High concentrations of stratospheric sulfur aerosols may persist for up to a few years, yielding a negative forcing contribution to ΔEA.[34][35] Various other types of anthropogenic aerosol emissions make both positive and negative contributions to ΔEA. Solar cycles produce ΔEI smaller in magnitude than those of recent ΔEG trends from human activity.[36][37]
Climate forcings are complex since they can produce direct and indirect feedbacks that intensify (positive feedback) or weaken (negative feedback) the original forcing. These often follow the temperature response. Water vapor trends as a positive feedback with respect to temperature changes due to evaporation shifts and the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. An increase in water vapor results in positive ΔEW due to further enhancement of the greenhouse effect. A slower positive feedback is the ice-albedo feedback. For example, the loss of Arctic ice due to rising temperatures makes the region less reflective, leading to greater absorption of energy and even faster ice melt rates, thus positive influence on ΔES.[38] Collectively, feedbacks tend to amplify global warming or cooling.[39]: 94
Clouds are responsible for about half of Earth's albedo and are powerful expressions of internal variability of the climate system.[40][41] They may also act as feedbacks to forcings, and could be forcings themselves if for example a result of cloud seeding activity. Contributions to ΔEC vary regionally and depending upon cloud type. Measurements from satellites are gathered in concert with simulations from models in an effort to improve understanding and reduce uncertainty.[42]
Earth's energy imbalance (EEI)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c2/Earth%27s_heating_rate_since_2005.jpg/290px-Earth%27s_heating_rate_since_2005.jpg)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bb/The-NASA-Earth%27s-Energy-Budget-Poster-Radiant-Energy-System-satellite-infrared-radiation-fluxes.jpg/330px-The-NASA-Earth%27s-Energy-Budget-Poster-Radiant-Energy-System-satellite-infrared-radiation-fluxes.jpg)
The Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) is defined as "the persistent and positive (downward) net top of atmosphere energy flux associated with greenhouse gas forcing of the climate system".[2]: 2227
If Earth's incoming energy flux is larger or smaller than the outgoing energy flux, then the planet will gain (warm) or lose (cool) net heat energy in accordance with the law of energy conservation:
When Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) shifts by a sufficiently large amount, the shift is measurable by orbiting satellite-based radiometric instruments.[35][44] Imbalances that fail to reverse over time will also drive long-term temperature changes in the atmospheric, oceanic, land, and ice components of the climate system.[45][46] In situ temperature changes and related effects thus also provide measures of EEI. From mid-2005 to mid-2019, satellite and ocean temperature observations have each independently shown an approximate doubling of the (global) warming imbalance in Earth's energy budget.[31][5]
The biggest changes in EEI arise from changes in the composition of the atmosphere through human activities, thereby interfering with the natural flow of energy through the climate system.[1] The main changes are from increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, that produce heating (EEI increasing), and pollution. The latter refers to atmospheric aerosols of various kinds, some of which absorb energy while others reflect energy and produce cooling.
It is not (yet) possible to measure the absolute magnitude of EEI directly at top of atmosphere, although changes over time as observed by satellite-based instruments are thought to be accurate. The only practical way to estimate the absolute magnitude of EEI is through an inventory of the changes in energy in the climate system. The biggest of these energy reservoirs is the ocean.[1]
Measurements at top of atmosphere (TOA)
Several satellites measure the energy absorbed and radiated by Earth, and thus by inference the energy imbalance. These are located top of atmosphere (TOA) and provide data covering the globe. The NASA Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) project involved three such satellites: the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), launched October 1984; NOAA-9, launched December 1984; and NOAA-10, launched September 1986.[47]
NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments are part of its Earth Observing System (EOS) since March 2000. CERES is designed to measure both solar-reflected (short wavelength) and Earth-emitted (long wavelength) radiation.[48] The CERES data showed increases in EEI from +0.42±0.48 W/m2 in 2005 to +1.12±0.48 W/m2 in 2019. Contributing factors included more water vapor, less clouds, increasing greenhouse gases, and declining ice that were partially offset by rising temperatures.[31][43] Subsequent investigation of the behavior using the GFDL CM4/AM4 climate model concluded there was a less than 1% chance that internal climate variability alone caused the trend.[49]
Other researchers have used data from CERES, AIRS, CloudSat, and other EOS instruments to look for trends of radiative forcing embedded within the EEI data. Their analysis showed a forcing rise of +0.53±0.11 W/m2 from years 2003 to 2018. About 80% of the increase was associated with the rising concentration of greenhouse gases which reduced the outgoing longwave radiation.[50][51][52]
Further satellite measurements including TRMM and CALIPSO data have indicated additional precipitation, which is sustained by increased energy leaving the surface through evaporation (the latent heat flux), offsetting some of the increase in the longwave greenhouse flux to the surface.[53]
It is noteworthy that radiometric calibration uncertainties limit the capability of the current generation of satellite-based instruments, which are otherwise stable and precise. As a result, relative changes in EEI are quantifiable with an accuracy which is not also achievable for any single measurement of the absolute imbalance.[54][55]
In situ measurements
The planetary heat content that resides in the climate system can be compiled given the heat capacity, density and temperature distributions of each of its components. Most regions are now reasonably well sampled and monitored, with the most significant exception being the deep ocean.[56]
Estimates of the absolute magnitude of EEI have likewise been calculated using the measured temperature changes during recent multi-decadal time intervals. For the 2006 to 2020 period EEI was about +0.76±0.2 W/m2 and showed a significant increase above the mean for the 1971 to 2020 period.[5]
EEI has been positive because temperatures have increased almost everywhere for over 50 years. Global surface temperature (GST) is calculated by averaging temperatures measured at the surface of the sea along with air temperatures measured over land. Reliable data extending to at least 1880 shows that GST has undergone a steady increase of about 0.18 °C per decade since about year 1970.[57]
Ocean waters are especially effective absorbents of solar energy and have a far greater total heat capacity than the atmosphere.[58] Research vessels and stations have sampled sea temperatures at depth and around the globe since before 1960. Additionally, after the year 2000, an expanding network of over 3000 Argo robotic floats has measured the temperature anomaly, or equivalently the ocean heat content change (ΔOHC). Since at least 1990, OHC has increased at a steady or accelerating rate. ΔOHC represents the largest portion of EEI since oceans have thus far taken up over 90% of the net excess energy entering the system:[59][60]
Earth's outer crust and thick ice-covered regions have taken up relatively little of the excess energy. This is because excess heat at their surfaces flows inward only by means of thermal conduction, and thus penetrates only several tens of centimeters on the daily cycle and only several tens of meters on the annual cycle.[61] Much of the heat uptake goes either into melting ice and permafrost or into evaporating more water from soils.
Geodetic and hydrographic surveys
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/20210125_The_Cryosphere_-_Floating_and_grounded_ice_-_imbalance_-_climate_change.png/290px-20210125_The_Cryosphere_-_Floating_and_grounded_ice_-_imbalance_-_climate_change.png)
Observations since 1994 show that ice has retreated from every part of Earth at an accelerating rate.[62] Mean global sea level has likewise risen as a consequence of the ice melt in combination with the overall rise in ocean temperatures.[63] These shifts have contributed measurable changes to the geometric shape and gravity of the planet.
Changes to the mass distribution of water within the hydrosphere and cryosphere have been deduced using gravimetric observations by the GRACE satellite instruments. These data have been compared against sea level and hydrographic observations using computational models that account for thermal expansion, salinity changes, and other factors. Estimates thereby obtained for ΔOHC and EEI have agreed with the other (mostly) independent assessments within uncertainties.[64]
Importance as a climate change metric
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/70/Schematic_presentation_on_the_Earth_heat_inventory_for_the_current_anthropogenically_driven_positive_Earth_energy_imbalance_%28EEI%29_at_the_top_of_the_atmosphere_%28TOA%29.png/290px-thumbnail.png)
Climate scientists Kevin Trenberth, James Hansen, and colleagues have identified the monitoring of Earth's energy imbalance as an important metric to help policymakers guide the pace for mitigation and adaptation measures. Because of climate system inertia, longer-term EEI (Earth's energy imbalance) trends can forecast further changes that are "in the pipeline".[45][46][65]
Scientists found that the EEI is the most important metric related to climate change. It is the net result of all the processes and feedbacks in play in the climate system.[1] Knowing how much extra energy affects weather systems and rainfall is vital to understand the increasing weather extremes.[1]
In 2012, NASA scientists reported that to stop global warming atmospheric CO2 concentration would have to be reduced to 350 ppm or less, assuming all other climate forcings were fixed.[66] As of 2020, atmospheric CO2 reached 415 ppm and all long-lived greenhouse gases exceeded a 500 ppm CO2-equivalent concentration due to continued growth in human emissions.[67]
See also
- Lorenz energy cycle
- Planetary equilibrium temperature
- Climate sensitivity
- Tipping points in the climate system
Climate change portal
References
- ^ a b c d e f g h Trenberth, Kevin E; Cheng, Lijing (1 September 2022). "A perspective on climate change from Earth's energy imbalance". Environmental Research: Climate. 1 (1): 013001. doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ac6f74. ISSN 2752-5295.
Text was copied from this source, which is available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
- ^ a b c d e IPCC, 2021: Annex VII: Glossary [Matthews, J.B.R., V. Möller, R. van Diemen, J.S. Fuglestvedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Méndez, S. Semenov, A. Reisinger (eds.)]. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2215–2256, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.022.
- ^ "Climate and Earth's Energy Budget". earthobservatory.nasa.gov. 14 January 2009. Retrieved 5 August 2019.
- ^ Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; von Shuckmann, Karina; Cheng, LiJing (2016). "Insights into Earth's Energy Imbalance from Multiple Sources". Journal of Climate. 29 (20): 7495–7505. Bibcode:2016JCli...29.7495T. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0339.1. OSTI 1537015. S2CID 51994089.
- ^ a b c d e f von Schuckmann, Karina; Minière, Audrey.; Gues, Flora; Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Adusumilli, Susheel; Straneo, Flammetta; et al. (17 April 2023). "Heat stored in the Earth system 1960-2020: where does the energy go?". Earth System Science Data. 15 (4): 1675-1709
Material was copied from this source, which is available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. doi:10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023.
- ^ Allen, M.R., O.P. Dube, W. Solecki, F. Aragón-Durand, W. Cramer, S. Humphreys, M. Kainuma, J. Kala, N. Mahowald, Y. Mulugetta, R. Perez, M.Wairiu, and K. Zickfeld, 2018: Chapter 1: Framing and Context. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 49-92. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.003.
- ^ Previdi, M; et al. (2013). "Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 139 (674): 1121–1131. Bibcode:2013QJRMS.139.1121P. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.434.854. doi:10.1002/qj.2165. S2CID 17224800.
- ^ a b c d e "The NASA Earth's Energy Budget Poster". NASA. Archived from the original on 21 April 2014. Retrieved 20 April 2014.
- ^ Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Schär, Christoph; Loeb, Norman; Dutton, Ellsworth G.; König-Langlo, Gert (2013). "The global energy balance from a surface perspective" (PDF). Climate Dynamics. 40 (11–12): 3107–3134. Bibcode:2013ClDy...40.3107W. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1569-8. hdl:20.500.11850/58556. ISSN 0930-7575. S2CID 129294935.
- ^ "ACS Climate Science Toolkit - Atmospheric Warming - A Single-Layer Atmosphere Model". American Chemical Society. Archived from the original on 25 May 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2022.
- ^ "ACS Climate Science Toolkit - Radiative Forcing - How Atmospheric Warming Works". American Chemical Society. Retrieved 30 September 2022.
- ^ "Solar Radiation and the Earth's Energy Balance". The Climate System – EESC 2100 Spring 2007. Columbia University. Archived from the original on 4 November 2004. Retrieved 15 October 2010.
- ^ Le Treut H, Somerville R, Cubasch U, Ding Y, Mauritzen C, Mokssit A, Peterson T, Prather M (2007). "Historical Overview of Climate Change Science" (PDF). In Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds.). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. p. 97. Archived from the original (PDF) on 26 November 2018. Retrieved 25 March 2014.
- ^ "The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature (SAT)". Goddard Institute for Space Studies. NOAA. Archived from the original on 5 September 2015. Retrieved 3 September 2008.
- ^ "Yearly average temperature". Climate Change Tracker.
- ^ A concise description of the greenhouse effect is given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, "What is the Greenhouse Effect?" FAQ 1.3 – AR4 WGI Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science Archived 5 August 2019 at the Wayback Machine, IIPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 1, page 115: "To balance the absorbed incoming [solar] energy, the Earth must, on average, radiate the same amount of energy back to space. Because the Earth is much colder than the Sun, it radiates at much longer wavelengths, primarily in the infrared part of the spectrum (see Figure 1). Much of this thermal radiation emitted by the land and ocean is absorbed by the atmosphere, including clouds, and reradiated back to Earth. This is called the greenhouse effect."
Schneider, Stephen H. (2001). "Global Climate Change in the Human Perspective". In Bengtsson, Lennart O.; Hammer, Claus U. (eds.). Geosphere-biosphere Interactions and Climate. Cambridge University Press. pp. 90–91. ISBN 978-0-521-78238-8. Archived from the original on 2 August 2020. Retrieved 31 May 2018.
Claussen, E.; Cochran, V.A.; Davis, D.P., eds. (2001). "Global Climate Data". Climate Change: Science, Strategies, & Solutions. University of Michigan. p. 373. ISBN 978-9004120242. Archived from the original on 18 May 2020. Retrieved 1 June 2018.
Allaby, A.; Allaby, M. (1999). A Dictionary of Earth Sciences. Oxford University Press. p. 244. ISBN 978-0-19-280079-4. - ^ Rebecca, Lindsey (14 January 2009). "Climate and Earth's Energy Budget : Feature Articles". earthobservatory.nasa.gov. Archived from the original on 21 January 2021. Retrieved 14 December 2020.
- ^ Fox, Alex. "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Reaches New High Despite Pandemic Emissions Reduction". Smithsonian Magazine. Archived from the original on 10 June 2021. Retrieved 22 June 2021.
- ^ Lindsey, Rebecca; Dahlman, Luann. "Climate Change: Global Temperature". NOAA Climate.gov.
- ^ Davies, J. H.; Davies, D. R. (22 February 2010). "Earth's surface heat flux". Solid Earth. 1 (1): 5–24. Bibcode:2010SolE....1....5D. doi:10.5194/se-1-5-2010. ISSN 1869-9529.Davies, J. H., & Davies, D. R. (2010). Earth's surface heat flux. Solid Earth, 1(1), 5–24.
- ^ Archer, David (2012). Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast, 2nd Edition (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 978-0-470-94341-0.
- ^ a b Hannah Ritchie; Max Roser (2020). "Global Direct Primary Energy Consumption". Our World in Data. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved 9 February 2020.
- ^ a b Chelsea Harvey (12 January 2022). "Oceans break heat record for third year in a row". Scientific American.
- ^ "Earth's energy flow - Energy Education". energyeducation.ca. Retrieved 5 August 2019.
- ^ Fleming, James R. (1999). "Joseph Fourier, the 'greenhouse effect', and the quest for a universal theory of terrestrial temperatures". Endeavour. 23 (2): 72–75. doi:10.1016/S0160-9327(99)01210-7.
- ^ a b Sharma, P.D. (2008). Environmental Biology & Toxicology (2nd ed.). Rastogi Publications. pp. 14–15. ISBN 9788171337422.
- ^ Michon Scott (24 April 2006). "Earth's Big Heat Bucket". NASA Earth Observatory.
- ^ a b "Vital Signs of the Plant: Ocean Heat Content". NASA. Retrieved 15 November 2021.
- ^ "Air-Sea interaction: Teacher's guide". American Meteorological Society. 2012. Retrieved 15 November 2021.
- ^ "Ocean Motion : Definition : Wind Driven Surface Currents - Upwelling and Downwelling". Retrieved 15 November 2021.
- ^ a b c d e f Loeb, Norman G.; Johnson, Gregory C.; Thorsen, Tyler J.; Lyman, John M.; et al. (15 June 2021). "Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth's Heating Rate". Geophysical Research Letters. 48 (13). Bibcode:2021GeoRL..4893047L. doi:10.1029/2021GL093047.
- ^ National Research Council (2005). Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties. The National Academic Press. doi:10.17226/11175. ISBN 978-0-309-09506-8.
- ^ Thorsen, Tyler J.; Kato, Seiji; Loeb, Norman G.; Rose, Fred G. (15 December 2018). "Observation-Based Decomposition of Radiative Perturbations and Radiative Kernels". Journal of Climate. 31 (24): 10039–10058. Bibcode:2018JCli...3110039T. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0045.1. ISSN 0894-8755. PMC 8793621. PMID 35095187.
- ^ Robock, Alan (1 May 2000). "Volcanic eruptions and climate". Reviews of Geophysics. 38 (2): 191–219. Bibcode:2000RvGeo..38..191R. doi:10.1029/1998RG000054. S2CID 1299888.
- ^ a b Allan, Richard P.; Liu, Chunlei; Loeb, Norman G.; Palmer, Matthew D.; et al. (18 July 2014). "Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012". Geophysical Research Letters. 41 (15): 5588–5597. Bibcode:2014GeoRL..41.5588A. doi:10.1002/2014GL060962. PMC 4373161. PMID 25821270.
- ^ Gareth S. Jones, Mike Lockwood, Peter A. Stott (16 March 2012). "What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 117 (D5): n/a. Bibcode:2012JGRD..117.5103J. doi:10.1029/2011JD017013.
{{cite journal}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "What Is the Sun's Role in Climate Change?". NASA. 6 September 2019.
- ^ Lindsey, Rebecca (14 January 2009). "Climate and Earth's Energy Budget (Part 7-Climate Forcings and Global Warming)". earthobservatory.nasa.gov. Earth Observatory, part of the EOS Project Science Office, located at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Retrieved 5 August 2019.
- ^ Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, et al. 2021: Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002.
- ^ Stephens, Graeme L.; O'Brien, Denis; Webster, Peter J.; Pilewski, Peter; Kato, Seiji; Li, Jui-lin (25 January 2015). "The albedo of Earth". Reviews of Geophysics. 53 (1): 141–163. Bibcode:2015RvGeo..53..141S. doi:10.1002/2014RG000449. S2CID 12536954. Archived from the original on 24 May 2021. Retrieved 24 May 2021.
- ^ Datseris, George; Stevens, Bjorn (11 August 2021). "Earth's albedo and its symmetry". AGU Advances. 2 (3): 1–13. Bibcode:2021AGUA....200440D. doi:10.1029/2021AV000440. S2CID 238722349. Retrieved 7 December 2021.
- ^ "Clouds and Global Warming". NASA Earth Observatory. 10 June 2010.
- ^ a b Joseph Atkinson (22 June 2021). "Earth Matters: Earth's Radiation Budget is Out of Balance". NASA Earth Observatory.
- ^ Murphy, D. M.; Solomon, S.; Portmann, R. W.; Rosenlof, K. H.; et al. (9 September 2009). "An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 114 (D17). Bibcode:2009JGRD..11417107M. doi:10.1029/2009JD012105.
- ^ a b Trenberth, Kevin E. (1 October 2009). "An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy" (PDF). Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. 1 (1): 19–27. Bibcode:2009COES....1...19T. doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001.
- ^ a b von Schuckman, K.; Palmer, M. D.; Trenberth, K. E.; Cazenave, A.; et al. (27 January 2016). "An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance". Nature Climate Change. 6 (2): 138–144. Bibcode:2016NatCC...6..138V. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2876.
- ^ "GISS ICP: Effect of the Sun's Energy on the Ocean and Atmosphere". icp.giss.nasa.gov. Archived from the original on 7 July 2019. Retrieved 5 August 2019.
- ^ Wielicki, Bruce A.; Harrison, Edwin F.; Cess, Robert D.; King, Michael D.; Randall, David A.; et al. (1995). "Mission to Planet Earth: Role of Clouds and Radiation in Climate". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 76 (11): 2125–2153. Bibcode:1995BAMS...76.2125W. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1995)076<2125:mtpero>2.0.co;2. ISSN 0003-0007.
- ^ Raghuraman, S. P.; Paynter, D.; Ramaswamy, V. (28 July 2021). "Anthropogenic forcing and response yield observed positive trend in Earth's energy imbalance". Nature Communications. 12 (4577): 4577. Bibcode:2021NatCo..12.4577R. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-24544-4. PMC 8319337. PMID 34321469.
- ^ Kramer, Ryan J.; He, Haozhe; Soden, Brian J.; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; et al. (25 March 2021). "Observational Evidence of Increasing Global Radiative Forcing". Geophysical Research Letters. 48 (7). Bibcode:2021GeoRL..4891585K. doi:10.1029/2020GL091585. S2CID 233684244.
- ^ Sarah Hansen (12 April 2021). "UMBC's Ryan Kramer confirms human-caused climate change with direct evidence for first time". University of Maryland, Baltimore County.
- ^ "Direct observations confirm that humans are throwing Earth's energy budget off balance". phys.org. 26 March 2021.
- ^ Stephens, Graeme L.; Li, Juilin; Wild, Martin; Clayson, Carol Anne; et al. (2012). "An update on Earth's energy balance in light of the latest global observations". Nature Geoscience. 5 (10): 691–696. Bibcode:2012NatGe...5..691S. doi:10.1038/ngeo1580. ISSN 1752-0894.
- ^ Loeb, Norman G.; Lyman, John M.; Johnson, Gregory C.; Allan, Richard P.; et al. (22 January 2012). "Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty". Nature Geoscience. 5 (2): 110–113. Bibcode:2012NatGe...5..110L. doi:10.1038/ngeo1375.
- ^ Loeb, Norman G.; Doelling, David R.; Hailan, Wang; Su, Wenling; et al. (15 January 2018). "Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Edition-4.0 Data Product". Journal of Climate. 31 (2): 895–918. Bibcode:2018JCli...31..895L. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0208.1.
- ^ "Deep Argo Mission". Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego. Retrieved 26 November 2023.
- ^ "Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change". NASA. Retrieved 23 February 2020.
- ^ LuAnn Dahlman and Rebecca Lindsey (17 August 2020). "Climate Change: Ocean Heat Content". NOAA.
- ^ Cheng, Lijing; Foster, Grant; Hausfather, Zeke; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Abraham, John (2022). "Improved Quantification of the Rate of Ocean Warming". Journal of Climate. 35 (14): 4827–4840. Bibcode:2022JCli...35.4827C. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0895.1.
- ^ Abraham, J. P.; Baringer, M.; Bindoff, N. L.; Boyer, T.; et al. (2013). "A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change". Reviews of Geophysics. 51 (3): 450–483. Bibcode:2013RvGeo..51..450A. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.594.3698. doi:10.1002/rog.20022. hdl:11336/25416. S2CID 53350907.
- ^ Lowrie, W. (2007). Fundamentals of geophysics. Cambridge: CUP, 2nd ed.
- ^ Slater, Thomas; Lawrence, Isobel R.; Otosaka, Inès N.; Shepherd, Andrew; et al. (25 January 2021). "Review article: Earth's ice imbalance". The Cryosphere. 15 (1): 233–246. Bibcode:2021TCry...15..233S. doi:10.5194/tc-15-233-2021. ISSN 1994-0416. S2CID 234098716.
- ^ WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group (2018). "Global sea-level budget 1993–present". Earth System Science Data. 10 (3): 1551–1590. Bibcode:2018ESSD...10.1551W. doi:10.5194/essd-10-1551-2018.
- ^ Hakuba, M.Z.; Frederikse, T.; Landerer, F.W. (28 August 2021). "Earth's Energy Imbalance From the Ocean Perspective (2005–2019)". Geophysical Research Letters. 48 (16). doi:10.1029/2021GL093624.
- ^ Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P.; von Schuckmann, K. (22 December 2011). "Earth's energy imbalance and implications". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 11 (24): 13421–13449. arXiv:1105.1140. Bibcode:2011ACP....1113421H. doi:10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011. S2CID 16937940.
- ^ Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; von Schuckmann, Karina (January 2012). "Earth's Energy Imbalance". NASA. Archived from the original on 4 February 2012.
- ^ "NOAA's Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (An Introduction)". NOAA. Retrieved 4 August 2021.
External links
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4a/Commons-logo.svg/30px-Commons-logo.svg.png)