2024 Missouri gubernatorial election: Difference between revisions
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*Missouri [[National Right to Life Committee|Right to Life]]<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/government-politics/gubernatorial-hopeful-jay-ashcroft-lands-key-endorsement-from-missouri-right-to-life/article_96b91ac2-257c-11ee-ac86-03b8a3fc3a06.html|title=Gubernatorial hopeful Jay Ashcroft lands key endorsement from Missouri Right to Life|website=www.stltoday.com|date=July 18, 2023|access-date=October 22, 2023}}</ref>}} |
*Missouri [[National Right to Life Committee|Right to Life]]<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/government-politics/gubernatorial-hopeful-jay-ashcroft-lands-key-endorsement-from-missouri-right-to-life/article_96b91ac2-257c-11ee-ac86-03b8a3fc3a06.html|title=Gubernatorial hopeful Jay Ashcroft lands key endorsement from Missouri Right to Life|website=www.stltoday.com|date=July 18, 2023|access-date=October 22, 2023}}</ref>}} |
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*Freedom Principle MO - Missouri First PAC<ref name=FPMMFPendorsements2024>{{Cite web|date=June 25, 2024|title=Freedom Principle MO – Missouri First PAC Announces Candidate Endorsements for August Republican Primary|url=https://static1.squarespace.com/static/638696c00bebed7909fd18b8/t/667b16290b552d08dfca696b/1719342634082/FPMO+MO+PAC+Announces+Endorsements+for+August+2024+Primary+Social.pdf|access-date=July 3, 2024|website=freedomprinciplemo.org|language=en-US}}</ref> |
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*[[International Association of Fire Fighters|Fire Fighter Association]] of Missouri<ref>{{cite web|website=The Missouri Times|date=April 5, 2022|title=Fire Fighter Association of Missouri endorses Kehoe for governor|url=https://themissouritimes.com/fire-fighter-association-of-missouri-endorses-kehoe-on-his-candidacy-for-governor/|last=Hays |first=Brady |access-date=April 5, 2022}}</ref> |
*[[International Association of Fire Fighters|Fire Fighter Association]] of Missouri<ref>{{cite web|website=The Missouri Times|date=April 5, 2022|title=Fire Fighter Association of Missouri endorses Kehoe for governor|url=https://themissouritimes.com/fire-fighter-association-of-missouri-endorses-kehoe-on-his-candidacy-for-governor/|last=Hays |first=Brady |access-date=April 5, 2022}}</ref> |
Revision as of 02:10, 4 July 2024
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Elections in Missouri |
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The 2024 Missouri gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Parson is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a second full term in office due to having served more than two years of predecessor Eric Greitens' unexpired term following his resignation in June 2018. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1]
The former bellwether state has politically trended rightward in recent years and is today a Republican stronghold at both the federal and state levels. The last Democrat to hold the office of governor in Missouri is Jay Nixon who comfortably won re-election in 2012. In 2020, Parson won by 16.41% in the first election in which Missouri elected a Republican for governor by double digits since 1988.[2]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jay Ashcroft, Missouri Secretary of State (2017–present) and son of former governor John Ashcroft[3]
- Bill Eigel, state senator from the 23rd district (2017–present)[4]
- Darren Grant[5]
- Jeremy Gundel, write-in candidate for lieutenant governor in 2020[5]
- Mike Kehoe, Lieutenant Governor of Missouri (2018–present)[6]
- Darrell McClanahan, honorary KKK member and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[7]
- Robert Olson, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[5]
- Amber Thomsen[5]
- Chris Wright, businessman and former police officer[5]
Endorsements
- Organizations
- Missouri Right to Life[8]
- Organizations
- Freedom Principle MO - Missouri First PAC[9]
- Labor unions
- Fire Fighter Association of Missouri[10]
- Missouri Fraternal Order of Police[11]
- Organizations
- American Council of Engineering Companies of Missouri[12]
- Associated General Contractors of Missouri[13]
- Missouri Agribusiness Association[14]
- Missouri Asphalt Pavement Association[15]
- Missouri Automobile Dealers Association[13]
- Missouri Cattlemen Association[14]
- Missouri Chamber of Commerce[16]
- Missouri Corn Growers Association[13]
- Missouri Farm Bureau [17]
- Missouri Forest Products Association[18]
- Missouri Hospital Association[19]
- Missouri Limestone Producers Association[20]
- Missouri Soybean Association[14]
- SITE Improvement Association[21]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jay Ashcroft |
Bill Eigel |
Mike Kehoe |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARW Strategies (R) | June 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 19% | 19% | 24% | - | 38% |
Remington Research (R)[A] | June 19–20, 2024 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 31% | 9% | 29% | - | 31% |
Emerson College | June 17–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 23% | 6% | 20% | 5%[b] | 46% |
American Viewpoint[B] | June 2–4, 2024 | 800 (LV) | - | 27% | 16% | 27% | - | 30% |
Peak Insights | May 15–18, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 22% | 14% | 20% | - | 42% |
American Viewpoint[B] | May 13–15, 2024 | 600 (LV) | - | 33% | 12% | 23% | - | 32% |
Tyson Group[C] | April 23–26, 2024 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 3% | 11% | 9%[c] | 40% |
YouGov/Saint Louis University | February 14–26, 2024 | 414 (LV) | ± 5.54% | 28% | 8% | 10% | 4%[d] | 49% |
Remington Research (R)[A] | February 14–15, 2024 | 706 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 5% | 22% | - | 38% |
ARW Strategies (R) | February 5–7, 2024 | 611 (V) | ± 3.96% | 36% | 13% | 13% | - | 38% |
Remington Research (R)[A] | January 18–19, 2024 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 34% | 4% | 20% | - | 42% |
Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 18% | 6% | 19% | - | 49% |
Remington Research (R)[A] | September 27–28, 2023 | 714 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 32% | 5% | 15% | - | 48% |
Remington Research (R)[A] | July 5–7, 2023 | 706 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 34% | 4% | 14% | - | 38% |
Remington Research (R)[A] | November 15–16, 2022 | 940 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 4% | 10% | - | 42% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[D] | March 8–10, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | - | 19% | 8% | 19% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jay Ashcroft | |||
Republican | Bill Eigel | |||
Republican | Darren Grant | |||
Republican | Jeremy Gundel | |||
Republican | Mike Kehoe | |||
Republican | Darrell McClanahan | |||
Republican | Robert Olson | |||
Republican | Amber Thomsen | |||
Republican | Chris Wright | |||
Total votes |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Sheryl Gladney, customer service agent[5]
- Mike Hamra, restaurant conglomerate owner[22]
- Hollis Laster[5]
- Eric Morrison, pastor and candidate for governor in 2016 and 2020[5]
- Crystal Quade, Minority Leader of the Missouri House of Representatives (2019–present) from the 132nd district (2017–present)[23]
Disqualified
- Sarah Unsicker, state representative from the 83rd district[24]
Endorsements
- Statewide officials
- Bob Holden, former Governor of Missouri (2001–2005)[25]
- Jason Kander, former Missouri Secretary of State (2013–2017)[25]
- State legislators
- 40 state legislators[26]
- Organizations
- Planned Parenthood Great Plains Votes[25]
- National Women's Political Caucus[27]
- Sierra Club of Missouri[28]
- Labor unions
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[e] |
Margin of error |
Sheryl Gladney |
Mike Hamra |
Crystal Quade |
Sarah Unsicker |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
YouGov/Saint Louis University | February 14–26, 2024 | 396 (LV) | ± 5.57% | 4% | 5% | 21% | 4% | 66% |
Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | - | 2% | 39% | - | 58% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Sheryl Gladney | |||
Democratic | Mike Hamra | |||
Democratic | Hollis Laster | |||
Democratic | Eric Morrison | |||
Democratic | Crystal Quade | |||
Total votes |
Third-party and independent candidates
Declared
- Bill Slantz (Libertarian), former chair of the Missouri Libertarian Party, perennial candidate, and nominee for governor in 2020[5]
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[30] | Solid R | July 21, 2023 |
Inside Elections[31] | Solid R | July 14, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Safe R | July 13, 2023 |
Elections Daily[33] | Safe R | July 12, 2023 |
Polling
- Mike Kehoe vs. Crystal Quade
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Kehoe (R) |
Crystal Quade (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 38% | 33% | - | 29% |
- Jay Ashcroft vs. Crystal Quade
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Ashcroft (R) |
Crystal Quade (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Remington Research Group[E] | March 6-8, 2024 | 713 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 53% | 36% | - | 11% |
Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 39% | 34% | - | 27% |
- Bill Eigel vs. Crystal Quade
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Eigel (R) |
Crystal Quade (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 34% | - | 33% |
- Mike Kehoe vs. Mike Hamra
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Kehoe (R) |
Mike Hamra (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 37% | 27% | - | 36% |
- Jay Ashcroft vs. Mike Hamra
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Ashcroft (R) |
Mike Hamra (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 39% | 29% | - | 32% |
- Bill Eigel vs. Mike Hamra
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Eigel (R) |
Mike Hamra (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Show Me Victories (D) | October 26–31, 2023 | 407 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 33% | 30% | - | 37% |
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | TBD | |||
Democratic | TBD | |||
Libertarian | Bill Slantz | |||
Total votes |
Notes
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Robert Olson with 2%; Darrell McClanahan, Amber Thomsen & Chris Wright with 1%; Darren Grant & Jeremy Gundel with 0%
- ^ Amber Thomsen with 3%; Darren Grant & Robert Olsen with 2%; Jeremy Grundel & Chris Wright with 1%
- ^ Chris Wright with 3%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
- Partisan clients
References
- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ^ Shorman, Jonathan (April 6, 2023). "Missouri's top election official Jay Ashcroft launches Republican campaign for governor". The Kansas City Star.
- ^ Singer, Jeff (August 17, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/17". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 17, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ Hancock, Jason (March 22, 2021). "Mike Kehoe passes on 2022 Senate run to focus on 2024 Missouri governor's race". Missouri Independent. Retrieved September 7, 2021.
- ^ Krull, Ryan (February 29, 2024). "Missouri GOP Candidate for Governor Was Only 'Honorary' KKK Member". Riverfront Times. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
- ^ "Gubernatorial hopeful Jay Ashcroft lands key endorsement from Missouri Right to Life". www.stltoday.com. July 18, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
- ^ "Freedom Principle MO – Missouri First PAC Announces Candidate Endorsements for August Republican Primary" (PDF). freedomprinciplemo.org. June 25, 2024. Retrieved July 3, 2024.
- ^ Hays, Brady (April 5, 2022). "Fire Fighter Association of Missouri endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
- ^ "Kehoe backed by Missouri Fraternal Order of Police in gubernatorial bid". The Missouri Times. February 28, 2022. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
- ^ Turner, Kelton (May 19, 2022). "Kehoe backed by American Council of Engineering Companies of Missouri". Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ^ a b c "Kehoe Gains 12th Endorsement in Bid for Missouri Governor in '24". Northwest MO Info. November 28, 2022. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ^ a b c Brady, Hays (March 22, 2022). "Missouri Agribusiness Association endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
- ^ Hays, Brady (June 14, 2022). "Missouri Asphalt Pavement Association endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ^ "Mike Kehoe gains gubernatorial endorsement from Missouri Chamber of Commerce". Springfield News-Leader. Archived from the original on September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 13, 2023.
- ^ "Missouri Farm Bureau PAC endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor in 2024".
- ^ McFarland, Matthew (August 26, 2022). "Missouri Forest Products Association endorses Kehoe for 2024 Governor race". The Missouri Times. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ^ Lamons, Jarett (June 19, 2024). "Missouri Hospital Association endorses Mike Kehoe". The Missouri Times. Retrieved June 29, 2024.
- ^ Hays, Brady (May 23, 2022). "Missouri Limestone Producers Association endorses Mike Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ^ "SITE Improvement Association Endorses Mike Kehoe for Missouri Governor In 2024". St. Louis Construction News & Review. March 1, 2023. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
- ^ Keller, Rudi (October 27, 2023). "Springfield businessman Mike Hamra joins Democratic race for Missouri governor". Missouri Independent. Retrieved October 27, 2023.
- ^ Sellem, Lucas (July 9, 2023). "Rep. Crystal Quade announces run for MO governor". KMOV. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
- ^ Ballentine, Summer (February 27, 2024). "Exiled Missouri lawmaker blocked from running for governor as a Democrat". The Associated Press. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Crystal Quade gains endorsement from Planned Parenthood in 2024 gubernatorial bid". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- ^ Sundrup, Jack (October 11, 2023). "Missouri Democrat Crystal Quade could face intraparty competition in bid for governor". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved October 12, 2023.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 29, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Missouri Sierra Club Election Endorsements | Sierra Club". www.sierraclub.org. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ^ Alpert, Lynn (September 25, 2023). "Missouri AFL-CIO endorses Crystal Quade for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites