Talk:Day of Deceit

Day of Deceit

I have added a "{{prod}}" template to the article Day of Deceit, suggesting that it be deleted according to the proposed deletion process. All contributions are appreciated, but I don't believe it satisfies Wikipedia's criteria for inclusion, and I've explained why in the deletion notice (see also "What Wikipedia is not" and Wikipedia's deletion policy). Please either work to improve the article if the topic is worthy of inclusion in Wikipedia, or, if you disagree with the notice, discuss the issues at its talk page. Removing the deletion notice will prevent deletion through the proposed deletion process, but the article may still be sent to Articles for Deletion, where it may be deleted if consensus to delete is reached, or if it matches any of the speedy deletion criteria.Trekphiler 07:43, 13 February 2007 (UTC)

Deceit?

Leaving aside the question why there's an entire page dedicated to this piece of fiction, let me mention

"denied crucial U.S. military intelligence that tracked Japanese forces advancing on Hawaii."

The resolution did not say Kimmel & Short were denied this, because it didn't exist, but that they were denied Ultra from JN-25 & PURPLE, which did.

"Stinnett demonstrates that Morimura's bulletins were intercepted, decrypted and translated by the Office of Naval Intelligence, and that the intercepts were also sent to Washington, but that Admiral Kimmel did not receive this information.[1]

Stinnett's "demonstration" is filled with examples of intercepts dated before Pearl Harbor, with translation dates as late as 1945. He also completely ignores manpower shortages in U.S. crypto organizations prewar.

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Of note, the so-called Kita Messages (aka Bomb Plot messages) were encoded in J-19 and were read in the Fall of 1941, Washington read them then. Neither Kimmel or Short were made aware of these.

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"eight provocations aimed at Japan"

Stinnett's thesis twists McCollum's memo, which can as easily be read to mean things to avoid doing to prevent war with Japan.

"Stinnett’s overarching message was that engineering the attack was, at least arguably, a grim necessity."

Like all conspiracy theories, it completely ignores actual actions FDR was taking in the Atlantic, which would bring war with Germany, if successful. Like all conspiracy theories, it also completely ignores a fundamental fact, a fallacy of reasoning so old, the Romans had a name for it: post hoc, ergo propter hoc (after it, therefore because of it). We know the attack led Germany to declare war on the U.S. There is no conceivable way FDR could have known. Stinnett ignores the implications of another of McCollum's memos, which predicts the effects of an attack with such insight, he might as well have been in Hitler's staff meetings. The sole beneficiary of a Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was Germany, not Britain; McCollum got it right, beforehand. Despite 60 years of research, the conspiracy nuts still can't. Trekphiler 07:11 & 07:24, 13 February 2007 (UTC)

Junk Fiction

I'm inclined to add this:

"===Flaws===

"Stinnett demonstrates ignorance of fundamental issues around cryptanalysis, such as being unable to recognize JN-25 as the "5-num" system. In addition, he presumes unambiguous intent, by drawing attention to things like lines of latitude, as if this somehow clearly demonstrates the location of Japan's targets, neglecting to note they also imply Baja California. Moreover, his thesis twists McCollum's memo, which can as easily be read to mean things to avoid doing to prevent war with Japan, instead presuming intent to provoke Japan. Furthermore, he ignores the contradiction when he quotes an analyst as saying MacArthur got all the information denied Kimmel and Short, yet neglects to mention MacArthur was also caught by surprise. And, like all conspiracy theorists, he omits to mention FDR's efforts in the Atlantic to provoke Germany, which would aid Britain, as well as the salient fact war in the Pacific would not--as, in the event, it did not."

Comment? 07:21, 24 May 2007 (UTC)

That's original research as far as I can tell. As it is, it can't stay in at all. It is totally unverified. Don't write your own opinion. Quote or paraphrase prominent published opinions. I'm sorry to say, but it's best if it stays out until something more Wikipedian can be put in to replace it. Misterbailey (talk) 08:37, 6 January 2008 (UTC)

Templates: POV and Balance

As can be seen in other comments, Stinnett's book is about a very controversial topic. The Attack on Pearl Harbor and Alternative Theories articles, and talk pages are a record of the controversy about Stinnett's claims in this book.

The article reflects essentially none of this and in failing to do so, adopts a point of view in violation of WP policy. It is unbalanced and violates WP policy in that respect as well. ww 01:40, 22 August 2007 (UTC)

False-flag There is other evidence Pearl Harbor was a false flag operation carried out not just with foreknowledge by the Roosevelt administration, but with their active participation. A Honolulu paper (name?) ran the full story of the lead pilot of the advance squadron who was shot down and treated by medics. He was wearing a Honolulu High valedictorian ring and was in fact a double-agent, according to the news report. Churchill knew of Pearl Harbor before the fact from intelligence intercepts. The US knew of it. Everyone knew about Pearl Harbor before it happened except Hitler it seems. The main wikipedia article on Pearl Harbor doesn't address any of the outstanding questions and is just official history. If you delete this page you delete the only pointer on wikipedia to the truth, not the truth itself but an indication that the full story hasn't been revealed yet. Hypatea 14:13, 2 October 2007 (UTC)

Give me a break! This is full of unsubstantiated, contradictary garbage. Stinnett's own source contraditcts him (Note 8 to Chapter 2, look it up), & Stinnett is so determined to prove a conspiracy that doesn't exist, he can't see it. Trekphiler 20:44, 3 October 2007 (UTC)

Junk Fiction 2

For Jeffq, let me say, until you can demonstrate the diversion of U.S. effort to the PTO benefitted Britain, don't put the {{fact}} tag back on. Trekphiler 09:31, 13 November 2007 (UTC)

Things to avoid doing?

"McCollum's memo .. can as easily be read to mean things to avoid doing to prevent war with Japan"??

There's no way anyone could arrive at that conclusion if they actually read the memo. The text of the memo is included in the Wikipedia article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCollum_memo and the relevant section reads

" ...Therefore, the following course of action is suggested:

   * A. Make an arrangement with Britain for the use of British bases in the Pacific, particularly Singapore.
   * B. Make an arrangement with Holland for the use of base facilities and acquisition of supplies in the Dutch East Indies.
   * C. Give all possible aid to the Chinese government of Chiang-Kai-Shek.
   * D. Send a division of long range heavy cruisers to the Orient, Philippines, or Singapore.
   * E. Send two divisions of submarines to the Orient.
   * F. Keep the main strength of the U.S. fleet now in the Pacific in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands.
   * G. Insist that the Dutch refuse to grant Japanese demands for undue economic concessions, particularly oil.
   * H. Completely embargo all U.S. trade with Japan, in collaboration with a similar embargo imposed by the British Empire.

10. If by these means Japan could be led to commit an overt act of war, so much the better. ..."

Not only are these points "suggested"; not only is the predicted outcome "so much the better"; but the 8-point plan was followed, at least in its broad outline if not to the letter. There *was* military consultation between the British, Dutch and Americans in Singapore, to plan an anti-Japanese strategy. These consultations resulted in co-ordinated reconnaissance flights of American, British and Dutch aircraft on Japanese movements in the South China Sea (http://www.geocities.com/dutcheastindies/DEI_oil.html). There *was* a trade embargo (in abrogation of the United States - Japanese Commerce and Navigation Treaty), and freezing of Japanese assets. The main strength of the U.S. fleet *was* kept in the vicinity of the Hawaiian islands. The Dutch government (by mid 1940 in exile in London) not only opposed Japanese demands for economic concessions as required by the 8 point plan, it also joined in the embargo, as did the British. Since Japan had been dependent on the US for 80% of its oil, and the Dutch East Indies was the only other possible source of supply, it's difficult to see what options the Japanese had. Martin Gradwell (talk) 00:53, 17 December 2007 (UTC)

Recall McCollum's memo is written from the point of view of deterrence. Note also this isn't the whole text; from what Stinnett (no supporter of the "no conspiracy" POV) reproduced, I was unconvinced war was being advocated. Deterring or intimidating Japan, yes. Recall, also, Japan was at war in China & the U.S. was trying her damndest to aid China without getting into a war; the "overt act" by Japan would be an excuse to give full military aid without violating the Neutrality Act. Nothing like as clear as your making out. Trekphiler (talk) 15:03, 18 December 2007 (UTC)

Not the whole text? I've ony quoted the most relevant part of the memo, but it certainly looks to me like the transcript at the McCollum_memo page is the whole of it. Comparison of that transcript with the facsimile does not reveal any omissions. I based my opinion on that whole text, not just on the part I quoted.

Deterrence? In the whole memo, I see no evidence for that. On the contrary, the stance throughout is that war with Japan is seen as inevitable, and the only question is who should start it. ".. prompt aggressive naval action against Japan by the United States would render Japan incapable of affording any help to Germany and Italy" "A prompt and early declaration of war .. would be most effective in bringing about the early collapse of Japan". "Furthermore, elimination of Japan must surely strengthen Britain's position against Germany and Italy". How could McCollum make it any clearer that he is all for an immediate declaration of war with Japan, leading ultimately to that country's elimination?

But he acknowledges that the political climate is not yet ripe for such a declaration, so he recommends eight actions each of which is a preparation for war, so that the US will be ready when the time comes (and the Japanese, being starved of oil and other necessary materials because of points G and H, will not be ready); and "If by these means Japan could be led to commit an overt act of war, so much the better". That last remark shows that he sees very clearly that his proposed actions are provocative. He is actively goading the Japanese, in the hope that they will make the first overtly aggressive action. Goading is the exact diametrical opposite of deterrence. The only note of caution is in the addendum by Captain Knox. Maybe Knox is less enthusiastic about the prospect of war than McCollum is, but in the end he concurs with the plan outlined in the memo. Martin Gradwell (talk) 03:19, 21 December 2007 (UTC)

Really, there's no need to have a debate about the merits. Reflect prominent published opinions on the matter (those that are specifically relevant to Day of Deceit's argument) and leave it at that. If Day of Deceit contains specific factual errors, they can be mentioned if cited, but we shouldn't be giving our own interpretations. Misterbailey (talk) 08:40, 6 January 2008 (UTC)

Overall

I have no particular opinion on the controversy this article touches on, but I came to it interested in what it had to say, and left it no wiser. The article in unclear as to what is actually being said. I assume that the book it describes (is it an explicitly fictional book as the above comment suggests?) is supposed to be evidence in favor of US Govt. foreknowledge of the Pearl Harbor attack. If so, the article should surely say so upfront.