2020–21 South Pacific cyclone season: Difference between revisions
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Revision as of 01:50, 11 December 2020
| 2020–21 South Pacific cyclone season | |
|---|---|
 Season summary map | |
| Seasonal boundaries | |
| First system formed | December 8, 2020 |
| Last system dissipated | Season ongoing |
| Strongest storm | |
| Name | 01F |
| • Lowest pressure | 1004 hPa (mbar) |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Total disturbances | 1 |
| Total depressions | 0 |
| Tropical cyclones | 0 |
| Total fatalities | None |
| Total damage | None |
| Related articles | |
The 2020–21 South Pacific cyclone season is a currently ongoing period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. The season officially started on November 1, 2020 and will end on April 30, 2021, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) in Nadi, Fiji and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers in Brisbane, Australia and Wellington, New Zealand. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) will also monitor the basin and issue unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS).
Seasonal forecasts
| Source/Record | Tropical Cyclone |
Severe Tropical Cyclone |
Ref |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record high: | 1997–98: 16 | 1982–83: 10 | [1] |
| Record low: | 1990–91: 2 | 2008–09: 0 | [1] |
| Average (1969-70 - 2019-20): | 7 | 3 | [2] |
| NIWA October | 8-10 | 3-4 | [3] |
| Fiji Meteorological Service | 4-6 | 1-3 | [2] |
| Region | Chance of above average |
Average number |
Actual activity |
| Western South Pacific (142.5°E—165°E; includes Australian basin) |
60% | 4 | |
| Eastern South Pacific (165°E—120°W) |
45% | 6 | |
| Source:BOM's South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook[4] | |||
Ahead of the cyclone season formally starting, the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), New Zealand's MetService and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2020.[3] The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analog seasons, that had ENSO neutral and El Nino conditions occurring during the season.[3] The outlook called for a near-average number of tropical cyclones for the 2020–21 season, with nine to twelve named tropical cyclones, predicted to occur between 135°E and 120°W, compared to an average of just over 10.[3] At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become severe tropical cyclones, while it was noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone could occur during the season.[3]
In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the FMS and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.[2][4] The BoM issued two seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific Ocean, for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean.[4] They predicted that the Western region between 142.5°E and 165°E, had a 60% chance of seeing activity above its average of 4 tropical cyclones. The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 45% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones.[4] Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between four and six tropical cyclones would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.[2] At least one of these tropical cyclones was expected to intensify further and become a Category 3 or higher severe tropical cyclone.[2]
Seasonal summary
Systems
Tropical Disturbance 01F
| Tropical disturbance (Australian scale) | |
| Tropical storm (SSHWS) | |
 | |
| Duration | December 8 – Present |
|---|---|
| Peak intensity | 65 km/h (40 mph) (1-min); 1004 hPa (mbar) |
A tropical disturbance formed within the Intertropical Convergence Zone in early December. Gradually moving southwards, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) first noted the possibility of Tropical Cyclogenesis on December 8, designating it Invest 90P. Soon afterwards, the FMS declared the system as a Tropical Disturbance.
Storm names
Within the Southern Pacific a tropical depression is judged to have reached tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h, (40 mph) and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. With tropical depressions intensifying into a tropical cyclone between the Equator and 25°S and between 160°E - 120°W named by the FMS. However, if a tropical depression intensify to the south of 25°S between 160°E and 120°W it will be named by MetService in conjunction with the FMS. Should a tropical cyclone move out of the basin and into the Australian region it will retain its original name. The next 10 names on the naming list are listed here below.[5]
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Season effects
This table lists all the storms that developed in the South Pacific to the east of longitude 160°E during the 2020–21 season. It includes their intensity on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, duration, name, landfalls, deaths, and damages. All data is taken from RSMC Nadi and/or TCWC Wellington, and all of the damage figures are in 2021 USD.
| Name | Dates | Peak intensity | Areas affected | Damage (USD) |
Deaths | Refs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kategorie | Wind speed | Pressure | ||||||
| 01F | December 8 – Present | Tropical disturbance | Not specified | 1005 hPa (29.678 inHg) | None | None | None | |
| Season aggregates | ||||||||
| 1 system | December 8 – Season ongoing |
Not Specified | Not specified | |||||
See also
- List of Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons
- Tropical cyclones in 2020
- Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2020, 2021
- Pacific hurricane seasons: 2020, 2021
- Pacific typhoon seasons: 2020, 2021
- North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2020, 2021
- 2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2020–21 Australian region cyclone season
References
- ^ a b Climate Services Division (October 26, 2010). Tropical Cyclone Guidance for Season 2010/11 for the Fiji and the Southwest Pacific (PDF) (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 27, 2012. Retrieved October 17, 2016.
- ^ a b c d e 2020/21 RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Outlook (PDF) (Report). Fiji Meteorological Service. October 15, 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 20, 2020. Retrieved October 20, 2020.
- ^ a b c d e Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2020 (Report). National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. October 20, 2020. Archived from the original on October 20, 2020. Retrieved October 20, 2020.
- ^ a b c d "South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021". Australian Bureau of Meteorology. October 20, 2020. Retrieved October 20, 2020.
- ^ RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (2023). Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-East Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean 2023 (PDF) (Report). World Meteorological Organization. Retrieved October 23, 2023.