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2021 Iranian presidential election

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2021 Iranian presidential election

← 2017 18 June 2021 2025 →
TurnoutDecrease 48.8%[citation needed]
 
Nominee Ebrahim Raisi Mohsen Rezaee
Party CCA RFII
Popular vote 17,926,345 3,412,712
Percentage 61.9%[citation needed] 11.7%

 
Nominee Abdolnaser Hemmati Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi
Party ECP Islamic Law Party
Popular vote 2,427,201 999,718
Percentage 8.3% 3.4%

President before election

Hassan Rouhani
MDP

Elected President

Ebrahim Raisi[1][2][3]
CCA

Presidential elections were held in Iran on 18 June 2021. Ebrahim Raisi won with 62 percent of the votes (17.8 million out of 28.6 million votes).[4][5] It was the thirteenth presidential election in Iran since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Under the 1979 constitution, Hassan Rouhani, the incumbent president, was ineligible to run for re-election as he was limited to two consecutive terms or eight years in office. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) reported 42 cases of journalists being summoned or threatened for writing about candidates.[6] There were calls to boycott the election,[7] and the chief of the police threatened against telling people to not vote.[8] At 48%, the election had the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic's history.[9] More than 4 million votes were void.[10]

Electoral system

The President of Iran is elected for a four-year term by universal adult suffrage with a minimum voting age of 18. The presidential term is renewable once in a consecutive manner. It is the country's highest directly elected official, the chief of the executive branch, and the second most important position after the Supreme Leader. "Under Iran's political system, it is ultimately the Supreme Leader, not the president, who makes the final call on all major matters of state."[11]

According to Islamic Republic of Iran's constitution, any Iranian citizen who believes in Shia Islam, loyal to the Constitution, the ideology of Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist and the Islamic Republic can participate in election as a presidential candidate. An institution called the Election Monitoring Agency (EMA), managed by the Guardian Council vets registered candidates and selects a handful to run in the election. [12]

The Guardian Council does not publicly announce the reason for rejections of particular candidates, although those reasons are privately explained to each candidate. Women are not constitutionally restricted from running; however, all women who registered as candidates have been excluded from standing for election by the Guardian Council.[13][14] "We have not rejected any woman due to being a woman", the spokeman of the Guardian Council said. He clarified that there is no obstacle for women's registration in the elections.[15]

Those approved by the Guardian Council are put to a public vote on the weekend. The winner is the candidate who receive a majority (50% plus one) votes. If no candidate receives enough votes another election is held between the two candidates with the most votes the following Friday.[16] Iranians who voted during the election receive a stamp that indicate so on their birth certificates.[17]

According to the constitution, once the result is known, the Supreme Leader must sign the decree of the elected president, and if he refuses to sign, the elected president will not assume the presidency. So far, Supreme Leaders have always signed the decree of the elected president.[18][19] After that, the elected president must recite and sign an oath in a session of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, in the presence of the to the members of the Guardian Council and the head of the Supreme Court. In the Oath, the elected President must swear that he will guard the official religion (Islam), protect the Constitution and the Islamic Republic, and that he will dedicate himself to the service of the nation, its people, and its religion (among other things).[16]

Simultaneous elections

The election was held concurrently with city and village council elections.[20][21][22] In some electoral districts and provinces midterm elections of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts were also held.[23][24]

Cost of the election

1170 billion toman (approximately US$277.4 million)[25] was allocated in the national budget, of which 160 billion was allocated to the Guardian Council for oversight and supervision, and the rest (1010 billion) was for the Ministry of Interior, which actually runs the election.[26]

Polling places abroad

234 polling places were setup in 133 countries so that Iranians abroad could vote. 3.5 million members of the Iranian diaspora were eligible to vote in the election.[27][28] The Canadian government did not allow Iran to setup polling places in Canada.[29]

Fatwas

Supreme leader and the Imam Jome Isfahan had declared blank votes haram, and not voting would be considered a major sin.[30][31][32]

Candidates

The Guardian Council is responsible for approving candidates who have registered to run. The Guardian Council disqualified over 600 applicants, including all the women who had registered.[33] Only seven candidates were approved.

Approved

The Interior Ministry released the official list of candidates qualified by the Guardian Council on 25 May 2021. The following seven candidates are approved by the council.[34]

Withdrew

Several candidates withdrew from the election, with three withdrawing after they had been approved by the Guardian Council. All the candidates who withdrew endorsed a candidate.

During election

Before election

Rejected

All but seven of the more than 600 applicants were rejected. The most notable of these candidates are listed below.

Announced but not registered

Declined to run

Pandemic

The government had administered 4 million COVID-19 vaccine doses, which is about 2.7% of the country’s population (82.91 million).[78] Incumbent President Rouhani predicted that the virus breakout could affect voter turnout.[79][80] The government has limited the maximum number of people allowed to gather at polling places.[81]

The Election Office vaccinated staff by obtaining vaccines meant for old people.[82] Election staff are tested for COVID-19 with PCR tests.[83]

Raisi held a rally despite pandemic according to APNews.[84]

The hospitals were readied for 5th wave of pandemic.[85][86][87][88][89]

Offline electronic voting system

Having a national identification number is required for voting.[90][91] The identification number system was developed and programmed by the Telecommunication Company of Iran.[92] 33000 virtual ballot boxes are used.[93]

TV debates

Format

The moderator asked every candidate different random questions, regarding economics, social and political, and people's issues. Additionally, 3 TV Chats were televised, hosting 7 candidates.[94][95][96][97][98][99]

Opinion polls

Hypothetical Polls

Hypothetical polls were done before the Guardian Council had announced who is approved to run. Therefore, these polls include several candidates (like Ahmadinejad) who were disqualified and are therefore ineligible to run.

Fieldwork date Poll source Sample
size
Margin of error Ebrahim Raisi Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Mohammad Javad Zarif Mohammad Khatami Saeed Jalili Saeed Mohammad Ali Larijani Mohammad Reza Aref Other
Raisi Ahmadinejad Ghalibaf Zarif Khatami Jalili Mohammad Larijani Aref
22–28 October 2020 Stasis[100] 1,136 N/A 37% 10% N/A N/A 3% N/A 2% 2% 17% None, 29% Don't know or other names
February 2021 Iran Poll[101] ~2,000 3.1% 11% 47% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% N/A N/A 34% Don't know or other names

Polls

These polls include all seven candidates who were approved by the Guardian Council. Note that Jalili, Mehralizadeh, and Zakani all withdrew after this poll was conducted.

Fieldwork date Poll source Sample
size
Margin of error Ebrahim Raisi Saeed Jalili Hemmati Mohsen Rezaei Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Alireza Zakani Mehralizadeh Haven't Decided Yet
Raisi Jalili Hemmati Rezaee Ghazizadeh Zakani Mehralizadeh
27 May - 3 June 2021 Gamaan[102](Internet poll) 68,271

(literate over 19 years old)

5% 59% 8% 3% 2.5% >1% >1% >1% 25%

ISPA polls

ISPA (Iranian Students Polling Agency) is considered as one of the most reliable pollsters in Iran. They correctly predicted the results of the 2017 election.[103][104] ISPA polls reveal that Ebrahim Raisi is heavily favored to win the election.[105]

Wave Fieldwork date Sample Size

(Over 18 years old)

Error Margin Method
4 April 2021[106] 1,569 N/A Phone Call
5 8 - 10 May 2021[107] 1,553 N/A Phone Call
7 26 - 27 May 2021[108] N/A N/A Phone Call
8 30 May - 1 June 2021[109] 5,159 N/A Face-to-face Inquery
10 9–10 June[110] 5,121 N/A Face-to-face Inquery
11 14–15 June[111] 5,094 N/A Face-to-face Inquery
12 15–16 June[112] 6,582 N/A Face-to-face Inquery

Hypothetical polls

Possible Candidate Wave No.4: Probability to Vote Wave No.5: Probability to Vote Candidacy Status
Don't Know Him No Answer Not At All Low Somewhat High Don't Know Him No Answer Not At All Low Somewhat High
Raisi Ebrahim Raisi 16% 14.3% 10% 6.8% 16.9% 36.6% 15% 12.7% 9% 5.5% 16.6% 41.2% Approved
Ghalibaf Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 8.2% 14.2% 32.1% 12.9% 19.6% 13.1% 9.2% 14.8% 26% 13.9% 20.5% 15.6% Didn't Register
Jalili Saeed Jalili 47.4% 7.5% 23.2% 8.7% 8.4% 4.8% 45.5% 7.2% 22.5% 9.8% 10% 5% Approved
Mohammad Saeed Mohammad 58.2% 7% 15.4% 4.8% 7.1% 7.5% 57.3% 6.9% 15.8% 5.4% 7.6% 7% Registered
Larijani Ali Larijani 14.5% 11.7% 42.1% 14.4% 12.9% 4.3% 10.7% 12.7% 41.5% 12.1% 15.8% 7.2% Registered
Khomeini Hassan Khomeini 18.1% 10.9% 25.2% 7.8% 16.3% 22.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Declined
Ghazizadeh Amirhossein Ghazizadeh 46.6% 8% 22.7% 8.4% 9.7% 4.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Approved
Rezaee Mohsen Rezaei 18.1% 10.9% 32.3% 13% 18.9% 6.8% 16.6% 11.2% 31% 12.6% 19.4% 9.2% Approved
Motahari Ali Motahari 38.5% 9.1% 27.5% 8.7% 11% 4.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Registered
Pezeshkian Masoud Pezeshkian 60.4% 6.5% 19.6% 5.7% 5.3% 2.4% 54.2% 8.2% 21.6% 6.9% 6.1% 3% Registered
Dehghan Hossein Dehghan 60.5% 6.7% 20.3% 6% 5% 1.5% 56.9% 6.5% 21.6% 8.1% 5.3% 1.6% Registered
Zarif Javad Zarif 11.5% 13.2% 36.6% 11% 15.3% 12.5% 9.5% 13.6% 37.9% 10.5% 16.2% 12.3% Didn't Register
Hashemi Mohsen Hashemi N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 28.8% 11.2% 31.6% 10.3% 11.8% 6.3% Registered
Jahangiri Eshagh Jahangiri N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 24% 8.7% 41% 11.6% 11% 3.7% Registered
Aref Mohsen Hashemi N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 41% 8.5% 28.3% 9.5% 9.7% 3% Declined
Zarghami Ezzatollah Zarghami N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 41.6% 7.8% 28.1% 10.5% 9.2% 2.8% Registered

Polls

Approved Candidates After anouncing

final list of candidates

Before 1st

Debate

After 2nd Debate After 3rd Debate Final

Result

Wave No.7 Wave No.8 Wave No.10 Wave No.11
Raisi Ebrahim Raisi 38.5% 48.6% 63.6% 60.6% N/A
Jalili Saeed Jalili 1.8% 1.6% 3.5% 3.5% N/A
Hemmati Hemmati 1.6% 1.3% 3.1% 3.7% N/A
Mehralizadeh Mehralizadeh 0.8% 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% N/A
Ghazizadeh Amirhossein Ghazizadeh 1% 0.8% 2.8% 3.1% N/A
Rezaee Mohsen Rezaei 3.4% 3.1% 7.1% 8% N/A
Zakani Alireza Zakani 0.1% 0.3% 2.1% 3% N/A
N/A 52.7% 44.2% 17% 17.4%

Reactions

Pre-election

  • United States The Biden administration responded to Iran's mass disqualification of candidates for its upcoming presidential election by saying the Iranian people should be free to choose their own leaders. The statement from the White House coincides with sharp criticism of Iran’s electoral system from Iranian human rights activists and U.S. conservatives, who view the election as neither free nor fair.[113]

Post-election

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