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AUKUS
Formation15 September 2021; 2 years ago (2021-09-15)
TypMilitary alliance
PurposeCollective security
Region
Indo-Pacific
Membership
  •  Australien
  •  Vereinigtes Königreich
  •  Vereinigte Staaten

AUKUS (/ˈɔːkəs/, AW-kəs) is a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, announced on 15 September 2021.[1] Under the pact, the US and the UK agree to help Australia to develop and deploy nuclear-powered submarines, adding to the Western military presence in the Pacific region.[2] Although the joint announcement by Australian prime minister Scott Morrison, British prime minister Boris Johnson and US president Joe Biden did not mention any other country by name, anonymous White House sources have alleged it is designed to counter the influence of China in the Indo-Pacific region.[3] However, Johnson later told parliament that the move was not intended to be adversarial toward China.[4]

The agreement covers key areas such as artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, underwater technologies, and long-range strike capabilities. It also includes a nuclear component, possibly limited to the US and the UK, on nuclear defence infrastructure.[1] The agreement will focus on military capability, separating it from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance that also includes New Zealand and Canada.[5] On 17 September 2021, France, which is an ally of the three countries, recalled its ambassadors from Australia and the US; French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called the deal a "stab in the back"[6] because it disrupted France's strategic plans for the Asia-Pacific region and led to Australia's unilateral cancellation of a French–Australian submarine deal worth €56 billion (A$90 billion).[7][8]

Background

French–Australian strategic partnership

Further information: Attack-class submarine

In 2009, two years after the start of the project to replace the Royal Australian Navy's conventionally powered Collins-class submarines, the Australian Defence White Paper stated: "The Government has ruled out nuclear propulsion for these submarines", hence removing the French nuclear-powered Suffren-class submarine from contention.[9]

In 2016, Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull signed a A$50 billion (€31 billion) deal with the French firm Naval Group (known as DCNS until 2017) to design a new generation of submarines, known as the Attack class, under the "Future Submarine Program", scheduled to replace the current Collins class.[10] Twelve of these submarines were to be partly built in Australia and France.[11] However, the project was beset by delays and cost overruns, leading to uncertainty and tension behind the scenes.[8] The revised cost, including inflation during the length of the program was A$90 billion (€56 billion).[12] As nuclear energy is prohibited in Australia, it had been decided to convert the design of the latest French nuclear-powered attack submarine, the Barracuda class, to conventional propulsion. Another difference was that Australia chose to equip it with combat systems provided by Lockheed Martin.[13] Australia typically requires that part of their vessels be built there, which increases the cost. In this case it corresponded to 60 per cent of the contract value, with France handling the technology transfer.[14]

In February 2021, an initial design plan was rejected as being too expensive, and Naval Group were given until September to improve their proposal.[15] At a Senate inquiry in early June 2021, with delays ongoing, Defence Secretary Greg Moriarty revealed under questioning that he had considered making contingency plans if the French project was to fail, admitting that there had been ongoing problems for over a year.[16] Two weeks later, Australian prime minister Scott Morrison met French president Emmanuel Macron in Paris and expressed concern about the project going off track, to which Macron replied that France was giving "full and complete" commitment and would proceed "further and faster if possible".[15]

In August 2021, the French and Australian defense and foreign affairs ministers released a joint statement reaffirming the project, stating that the "Ministers underlined the importance of the Future Submarine program."[9]

Australia decided to cancel the contract with Naval Group for the Attack-class submarines,[10] despite having already spent about $2.4 billion on the French project.[17] It was expected that Australia would have to pay hundreds of millions of Euros in penalties for cancelling the contract.[18]

It was later revealed that on the very day the project was cancelled, the Australians had written a letter to France, stating that "they were satisfied with the submarine's achievable performance and with the progress of the program."[9]

Australia–UK–US negotiations

The Telegraph reported that in March 2021 the Australian Chief of Navy Vice admiral Michael Noonan met in London with the UK First Sea Lord Admiral Tony Radakin and requested assistance from the UK and the US for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.[19][20] The Telegraph reported that UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab "helped broker the deal".[21] The New York Times reported that it was discussed by Johnson and Biden at the June 2021 G7 summit in Cornwall, England.[20][21] The Guardian reported that there was a trilateral discussion between Johnson, Biden and Morrison at the G7 summit.[22] The discussions occured unbeknown to Macron.[21] This approach was possible as a result of the UK not entering into a formal foreign policy and security treaty in the post-Brexit deal with the European Union (EU). As a result, the UK was free to pursue enhanced cooperation with other allies.[23] The Guardian reported that Australia had been considering an alternative to the Attack-class submarine deal for at least 18 months.[22]

Military programs

The US and Australia had previously announced the joint development of a hypersonic missile.[24] The three countries are also members of the Joint Strike Fighter program.

Eigenschaften

Nuclear-powered submarines

The AUKUS agreement will include provisions enabling Australia to obtain nuclear-powered submarines.[10] Nuclear submarines have greater speed, can stay underwater for longer and can carry heavier loads than conventional submarines.[6] Currently, only six countries have nuclear submarines, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) and India.[6] The US will supply highly enriched uranium (HEU) to Australia to power the submarines; Australia has agreed not to produce highly enriched uranium itself.[2][note 1] The United States' naval reactors are all pressurized water reactors (PWR).[26] The United Kingdom's Rolls-Royce PWR3 is a new system based on a US design but using UK reactor technology.[27]

US deployment in Australia

USS Virginia underway in July 2004

Originally proposed in an interim release of the 2012 Force Posture Review,[28] the deal could also involve American nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines operating out of HMAS Stirling in Perth.[29][30]

In talks in Washington, D.C., between the US and Australian defence and foreign affairs ministers, Australian defence minister Peter Dutton said that the countries would be "significantly enhancing our force posture cooperation", including "greater air cooperation through rotational deployments of all types of US military aircraft to Australia".[31] Dutton also flagged a potential increase in the number of US troops being deployed to Darwin on rotations, and more joint military exercises with the US, and with other regional partners, and more bases and equipment storage in Australia.[31] US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said the countries would look for more opportunities to joint engagements, flagging the presence of more US troops and aircraft based in Australia.[31] Austin also played down speculation that the US would expect Australian concessions in exchange for the nuclear technology, such as Australia hosting intermediate range missiles.[31]

Computer and cybertechnology

The announcement of AUKUS included the stated aim of improving "joint capabilities and interoperability. These initial efforts will focus on cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and additional undersea capabilities."[32] Tom Tugendhat, chair of the British Commons' Foreign Affairs Committee, later commented on Twitter that "Bringing together the military-industrial complex of these three allies together is a step-change in the relationship. We've always been interoperable, but this aims at much more. From artificial intelligence to advanced technology the US, UK and Australia will now be able to cost save by increasing platform sharing and innovation costs. Particularly for the smaller two, that's game-changing."[33] Engineering & Technology pointed to the increasing expansion of Chinese technology firms such as Huawei, which has been excluded from tendering for participation in telecommunications networks by the US and Australia on national security grounds, and government vetoes over the attempted Chinese acquisition of American company Lattice Semiconductor and ongoing British consideration of proposed takeovers of local semiconductor firms.[33] Engineering & Technology also pointed to the March 2021 statement of the US National Security Commission on AI, of the imperative to intensify local efforts but also "rally our closest allies and partners to defend and compete in the coming era of AI-accelerated competition and conflict".[33]

Nuclear proliferation concerns

The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty allows non-nuclear-weapon states to produce the highly enriched uranium for naval reactor fuel.[34] Nevertheless, the agreement to transfer US or UK nuclear submarine technology including possibly highly enriched uranium has been described as an act of nuclear proliferation,[35][36] and has been criticised by scholars and politicians.[36][37] [38] In the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, scholar Sébastien Philippe criticised AUKUS and wrote "we can now expect the proliferation of very sensitive military nuclear technology in the coming years, with literally tons of new nuclear materials under loose or no international safeguards."[36] James M Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote that "the nonproliferation implications of the AUKUS submarine deal are both negative and serious. For Australia to operate nuclear-powered submarines, it will have to become the first non-nuclear-weapon state to exercise a loophole that allows it to remove nuclear material from the inspection system of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). I have no real concerns that Australia will misuse this material itself, but I am concerned that this removal will set a damaging precedent. In the future, would-be proliferators could use naval reactor programs as cover for the development of nuclear weapons."[39]

Australia and Brazil[40][41][note 2] would be the first countries without nuclear weapons to have nuclear-powered submarines. Concerns were raised that this may lead to increased risk of arms proliferation if other countries follow the same approach because it would involve other countries enriching uranium for naval reactors, potentially creating more avenues to develop material needed for nuclear weapons without the safeguards provided by regular inspections.[25] This would not apply in the case of Brazil because the reactor will use low enriched uranium at 7% concentration.[42] 20% is the minimum level required to make a nuclear weapon.[34]

Comments and responses from participating countries

Australien

Federal opposition leader Anthony Albanese, of the Australian Labor Party, said that his party would support nuclear submarines as long as there was no requirement to have a domestic civil nuclear industry, no possession of nuclear weapons and that the deal is consistent with Australia's responsibilities under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.[43] Former Labor prime minister Paul Keating condemned the deal, saying "This arrangement would witness a further dramatic loss of Australian sovereignty, as material dependency on the United States robbed Australia of any freedom or choice in any engagement Australia may deem appropriate".[43] Former Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd warned against overly obtrusive criticism of China and recommended that Australia focus on quietly improving military capability.[44]

Former Liberal prime minister Tony Abbott called the move "the biggest decision that any Australian government has made in decades" as "it indicates that we are going to stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States and the United Kingdom in meeting the great strategic challenge of our time, which obviously, is China".[44] Abbott said that Australia would be safer as a result, and cited China's increasing naval firepower as a justification for the deal.[44]

Australian defence minister Peter Dutton responded by saying that Australia wanted peace and stability and "an opportunity for Indonesia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka and Korea to continue to develop". Dutton further dismissed "outbursts from China" and said that Australia was a "proud democracy" committed to "enduring peace and this collaboration makes it a safer region ... no amount of propaganda can dismiss the facts".[31]

Australian Greens leader Adam Bandt criticised the deal, saying that it escalates tensions in the region and "makes Australia less safe".[45]

The Australian PM has been trying to call the French president without success.[46]

Vereinigtes Königreich

Prime Minister Boris Johnson claimed that the deal would create "hundreds of high-skilled jobs" and "preserve security and stability around the world" but said that the relationship with France was "rock solid".[6] Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat said: "After years of bullying and trade hostility, and watching regional neighbours like the Philippines see encroachment into their waters, Australia didn't have a choice, and nor did the US or UK [to make the deal]".[47] Former prime minister Theresa May questioned whether the UK would be forced into a war with China should Taiwan be invaded.[48]

Johnson responded to French anger on September 21 by saying "I just think it's time for some of our dearest friends around the world to prenez un grip about this and donnez-moi un break".[49]

Vereinigte Staaten

President Joe Biden stated that the deal was a way to "address both the current strategic environment in the (Indo-Pacific) region and how it may evolve".[50]

After a call between the French and US presidents, the White House acknowledged the crisis could have been averted if there had been open consultations between allies. It was agreed the process would continue in such manner.[51]

International responses

Responses from European Countries

Frankreich

France's territories and EEZ, excluding Antarctic territories. A large proportion of France's overseas territories are located in the Indo-Pacific region.

France has territory in the Indo-Pacific, with its overseas territories of French Polynesia, New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, French Southern and Antarctic Lands and Clipperton Island as well as the regions of Mayotte and Réunion. Focused on the security of its citizens in this area, France maintains a permanent military presence there.[52] In total, there were two million French citizens and seven thousand French troops in the Indo-Pacific as of 2021.[53][note 3] The cooperation established with Australia (and other neighbouring countries), including the French–Australian submarine deal, is therefore an internal security issue for France due to the rise of Chinese influence in the area.[54][55][56][57]

The French government received official notification from Australia that the Attack-class submarine project, involving a A$90 billion Australian contract to buy 12 French submarines,[8] was to be cancelled only a few hours before it was publicly announced.[58][10] From the original 35 billion Euro cost, only eight would go to French companies. Submarines would instead be purchased from US and British companies.[59] The French government was angered by both the cancellation of the Attack-class submarine project and not being made aware of the negotiations that led to the AUKUS agreement.[60] In a joint statement, French foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and armed forces minister Florence Parly expressed disappointment at Australia's decision to abandon their joint submarine program with France.[61][6]

Le Drian further stated in a radio interview that the contract termination was a "stab in the back".[6] On 17 September, France recalled its ambassadors from Australia and the US.[8] Despite tension in the past, France had never before withdrawn its ambassador to the United States.[62] In a statement, Le Drian said that the "exceptional decision is justified by the exceptional gravity of the [AUKUS] announcements" and that the snap cancellation of the submarine contract "constitute[d] unacceptable behaviour between allies and partners".[8] French president Emmanuel Macron has not commented but is reported to be "furious" about the turn of events. In response to questions about the Australia-EU trade deal currently being negotiated, French Secretary of State for European Affairs Clément Beaune stated that he doesn't see how France can trust Australia.[63] Arnaud Danjean, a French MEP, said that "Australians can expect more than a delay in concluding the Free Trade Agreement with the EU".[63] French Lowy Institute policy analyst Hervé Lemahieu said the diplomatic damage from the cancellation will take years to repair and leave a lasting legacy of mistrust".[8]

Beaune described the United Kingdom as a junior partner and vassal of the United States due to the pact, saying in an interview: "Our British friends explained to us they were leaving the EU to create Global Britain. We can see that this is a return into the American lap and a form of accepted vassalisation."[64] Le Drian stated that "We have recalled our ambassadors to [Canberra and Washington] to re-evaluate the situation. With Britain, there is no need. We know their constant opportunism. So there is no need to bring our ambassador back to explain."[65] A Franco-British defence summit has been cancelled.[66]

Opposition politicians have started criticising the French government and demanding that France leave NATO.[67]

A foreign ministers meeting between France, Germany, the UK, and the US has been postponed.[68]

France contacted India to talk about strengthening their cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.[69]

After a call betweeen the French and US presidents, the French ambassador will return to the US.[51]

Naval Group stated that they were never asked for a nuclear submarine proposal, as the subject can only be discussed at the presidential level.[70]

A ministerial meeting between Australia, France, and India has been cancelled.[71]

France's foreign commerce minister has declined a meeting with his Australian counterpart.[72]

European Union

The EU called the way France was treated "unacceptable" and demanded an explanation.[73] European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, who told CNN that "one of our member states has been treated in a way that is not acceptable. ... We want to know what happened and why."[74][75] The EU also demanded an apology from Australia.[76] President of the European Council Charles Michel denounced a "lack of transparency and loyalty" by the US.[77]

The EU said the crisis affects the whole union.[78]

Preparations for a new EU-US trade and technology council have been postponed.[79]

Deutschland

Germany also criticised the pact. Minister of state for Europe Michael Roth described the row as a "wake up call" and stated that the EU must speak with one voice and that rebuilding lost trust will not be easy.[79][80]

Portugal

Portugal expressed solidarity with France.[81]

"In general, we ourselves express our solidarity with France, which has not been treated with due respect in this process", said Portuguese minister Augusto Santos Silva, adding that "clearly, the form was not one that should have been followed".[82]

Response from Other countries

China

China's foreign affairs department spokesman Zhao Lijian said, "The US, UK and Australia are engaging in cooperation in nuclear-powered submarines that gravely undermines regional peace and stability, aggravates the arms race and hurts the international non-proliferation efforts",[83] while the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C. accused the three countries of having a "Cold War mentality and ideological prejudice".[6]

The hawkish state-owned tabloid Global Times, which is known for being more aggressive than official government statements, denounced Australia and said it had "turned itself into an adversary of China"[47] and warned that Australia could be targeted by China as a warning to other countries if it acted "with bravado" in alliance with the US, or by being "militarily assertive".[47] It further told Australia to avoid "provocation" else China would "certainly punish it with no mercy",[31] and concluded "Thus, Australian troops are also most likely to be the first batch of western soldiers to waste their lives in the South China Sea".[47][84]

A Chinese party official, Victor Gao -- former interpreter for former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, and Vice President of a Beijing think tank, the Center for China and Globalization -- repeatedly warned that Australia's moves towards nuclear-powered submarines would lead to the country "being targeted with nuclear weapons," in the future.[84][85]

China also urged the new alliance to fulfill their nuclear non proliferation obligations and said Asia-Pacific needs jobs, not submarines.[86]

China asked France to boost cooperation.[87]


Neuseeland

On 16 September 2021, New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern issued a statement reiterating New Zealand's stance that no nuclear submarines were permitted in its waters, while also stating that they were not approached about the pact and that she would not have expected them to have been approached.[88][89] Ardern said the leaders of the three member nations were "very well versed" in New Zealand's nuclear-free policy and would have "understood our likely position on the establishment of nuclear-powered submarines".[90]

Taiwan

Taiwan's vice president, Lai Ching-te, immediately welcomed the pact, referring to it "as a positive development for democracy, peace, and prosperity in the region."[91] The foreign affairs spokesperson said, "Taiwan, on the groundwork of the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Guarantees, will continue to deepen the close partnership with the United States, maintain the rules-based international order, and the peace, stability, and prosperity in the Taiwan Strait and in the Indo-Pacific region together."[92]

Indonesien

Indonesia expressed worry over the deal, warning that it may lead to an arms race.[93]

The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed concerns about the implications of the Australian acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines for "the continuing arms race and power projection in the region." It called on Canberra to maintain its commitment to regional peace and stability.[94][95][96]

Indonesia later cancelled a planned visit by Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison amid the fallout of the AUKUS deal.[97]

On 22 September 2021, the People's Representative Council's Commission I, urged President Joko Widodo to take a strong stand over the AUKUS deal through the auspices of ASEAN. Commission I member Rizki Aulia Rahma described the formation of AUKUS as a threat to Indonesian national defense and sovereignty. The Foreign Ministry responded that they were working on a response to the issues posed by AUKUS.[98]

Malaysia

Malaysia criticised the deal and warned it could spark a renewed arms race in the region.[99] Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said he had raised concerns about the project with Mr. Morrison, and warned that the nuclear submarine project might heighten military tensions in Asia. He urged all parties to avoid any provocation, as well as an arms race in the region.[100]

"At the same time, it will provoke other powers to take more aggressive action in this region, especially in the South China Sea," Mr Yaakob said.[100]

Ismail Sabri also stressed the importance of respecting and adhering to Malaysia's existing stance and approach to nuclear-powered submarines operating in Malaysian waters, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty.[101]

Australia has since dispatched officials to Kuala Lumpur to clarify about the deal. Malaysian Minister of Foreign Affairs Saifuddin Abdullah agreed to the suggestion of Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Marise Payne for an in-depth briefing over the matter.[102]

Malaysia plans to hold consultations with China.[103]

North Korea

North Korea has condemned the deal as 'extremely undesirable and dangerous', stating that the moves will destroy the nuclear non-proliferation system,[104] and criticising the 'double-dealing' of the USA which 'seriously threatens the world peace and stability.' stating that North Korea will take counteraction if the alliance threatens the country.[105][106]

Philippinen

The Philippines through a statement released by the Department of Foreign Affairs welcomed the signing of the trilateral security pact.[107] Foreign Secretary, Teodoro L. Locsin, Jr. highlighted that "the enhancement of a near-abroad ally's ability to project power should restore and keep the balance rather than destabilise it," Secretary Locsin further added that without an actual presence of nuclear weapons within the region, the Philippines therefore finds that the AUKUS move would not constitute a violation of the 1995 Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone treaty.[108][109]

Kanada

The deal was announced in the midst of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Opposition politicians quickly attacked Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over Canada's exclusion from the pact, to which Trudeau responded by stating that "This is a deal for nuclear submarines, which Canada is not currently or any time soon in the market for. Australia is." Leader of the Official Opposition Erin O'Toole stated that he would seek to join the alliance if elected.[110]

Indien

During a call between French President Emmanuel Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, both leaders pledged to "act jointly"[111][112] in the Indo-Pacific region, with the ambition to promote "regional stability" and "rule of law", while avoiding "any form of hegemony"[111].

Others

Morrison said he contacted prime ministers Yoshihide Suga of Japan, Narendra Modi of India, Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore and Indonesian President Joko Widodo. Lee has commented publicly, expressing the hope that the arrangement would "contribute constructively to the peace and stability of the region and complement the regional architecture".[83] South Korea has also remained silent.[83]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Even though Australia is a leading producer of uranium, it has never operated nuclear power plants.[25]
  2. ^ See Brazilian submarine Álvaro Alberto.
  3. ^ In the 20th century, France carried out several nuclear weapons tests in the Indo-Pacific, provoking reactions from other powers in the region at the time.

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