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2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by 99.41.231.18 (talk) at 13:33, 1 July 2022 (→‎Endorsements: Added Andrew Anglin endorsement of Blake Masters). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona

← 2020 (special) November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2028 →
 
Nominee Mark Kelly
(presumptive)
TBD
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Mark Kelly
Democratic



The 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona.

Incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly was elected in a 2020 special election with 51.2% of the vote and is running for reelection to a full term. Republican John McCain was reelected to his seat in 2016. McCain died on August 25, 2018; former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl was appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to fill the seat. Kyl resigned at the end of the year and was replaced by former U.S. Representative Martha McSally, who lost to Kelly in 2020. Due to the very small margin by which Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden carried the state in 2020, the seat is considered one of the best possible Senate pickups for the Republicans in the 2022 election cycle.[1]

Primaries in Arizona are scheduled to take place on August 2.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Kelly (incumbent)
Total votes 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Republican candidates[a]

Did not file

  • Craig Brittain[21]
  • Robert Paveza, software engineer[22]

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Lamon
Executive Branch officials
Organizations
Blake Masters
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Justin Olson
Organizations
  • Stand for Health Freedom[48]

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Mark
Brnovich
Jim
Lamon
Blake
Masters
Michael
McGuire
Undecided
[b]
Margin
Real Clear Politics June 6–28, 2022 June 30, 2022 19.5% 13.5% 29.0% 4.5% 33.5% Masters +9.5
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Brnovich
Jim
Lamon
Blake
Masters
Michael
McGuire
Justin
Olson
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) June 28, 2022 595 (LV) ± 4.0% 15% 10% 29% 5% - - 41%
The Trafalgar Group (R) June 7–9, 2022 1,077 (LV) ± 2.9% 24% 17% 29% 4% 4% - 22%
Data Orbital (R) June 1–3, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 18% 20% 15% - - 12% 36%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] May 17–18, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 18% 18% 22% 7% 2% - 34%
Cygnal (R)[B] April 28–30, 2022 – (LV) - 19% 20% 19% 7% 2% - 33%
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 25–28, 2022 1,064 (LV) ± 3.0% 24% 25% 19% 8% 3% - 21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[C] April 21–24, 2022 – (LV) - 22% 25% 16% 6% - - 31%
Remington Research Group (R)[C] April 5–6, 2022 1,126 (LV) ± 3.4% 20% 32% 9% 3% 2% - 35%
OH Predictive Insights April 4–5, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 21% 16% 9% 6% 3% - 45%
Data Orbital (R) April 1–3, 2022 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 20% 26% 10% 7% 4% - 33%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) March 26–27, 2022 264 (LV) ± 6.0% 11% 10% 6% 4% - 8% 61%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] March 13–14, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 14% 14% 16% 3% 1% - 52%
Alloy Analytics (R)/J.L. Partners (UK Conservative Party) March 9–12, 2022 433 (LV) ± 4.7% 20% 15% 15% 3% 1% - 45%
Data Orbital (R) March 2022 – (LV) - 23% 17% 14% 4% 5% - 37%
Data Orbital (R) February 11–13, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 22% 17% 15% 5% 5% - 37%
co/efficient (R) February 6–8, 2022 755 (LV) ± 3.6% 17% 13% 12% 3% 1% 11% 44%
OH Predictive Insights January 11–13, 2022 302 (RV) ± 5.6% 25% 7% 6% 11% 4% - 47%
OH Predictive Insights November 1–8, 2021 252 (RV) ± 6.2% 27% 5% 9% 12% 2% - 46%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] October 26–28, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 26% 4% 14% 2% 2% <1%[d] 52%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[D] September 9–12, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 5% 7% 4% - - 43%
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 311 (RV) ± 5.6% 27% 3% 6% 14% - - 51%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] August 4–8, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 29% 7% 5% 3% - <1%[e] 56%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) May 3–5, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 28% - 1% 1% - - 61%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Kirk
Adams
Andy
Biggs
Mark
Brnovich
Doug
Ducey
Jim
Lamon
Blake
Masters
Michael
McGuire
Justin
Olson
Other Undecided
co/efficient (R) February 6–8, 2022 755 (LV) ± 3.6% - - 14% 13% 11% 11% 3% 1% 9% 38%
OH Predictive Insights January 11–13, 2022 302 (RV) ± 5.6% - - 13% 35% 4% 4% 9% 2% - 34%
WPA Intelligence (R)[E] April 5–6, 2021 505 (LV) ± 4.4% - 46% - 45% - - - - - 9%
OH Predictive Insights March 8–12, 2021 690 (RV) ± 3.7% 2%[f] 27% - - - 2% 3% - - 67%
6%[g] 26% - - - 2% 10% - - 56%
Data Orbital (R)[F] February 17–19, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 36% - - 1% 1% 3% - 4% 53%

Results

Republican primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Brnovich
Republican Jim Lamon
Republican Blake Masters
Republican Michael McGuire
Republican Justin Olson
Total votes 100%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Marc Victor, attorney and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2012[49]

Results

Libertarian primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Marc Victor
Total votes

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[50] Tossup March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[51] Tossup April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] Tossup March 1, 2022
Politico[53] Tossup April 1, 2022
RCP[54] Tossup February 24, 2022
Fox News[55] Tossup May 12, 2022
538[56] Tossup June 30, 2022

Endorsements

Polling

Mark Kelly vs. Mark Brnovich
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Mark
Brnovich (R)
Undecided
Blueprint Polling (D) May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 33% 18%
Data for Progress (D) January 21–24, 2022 1,469 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 4%
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 39% 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 36% 18%
Mark Kelly vs. Jim Lamon
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Jim
Lamon (R)
Undecided
Change Research (D)[G] June 24–27, 2022 705 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 41% 12%
Blueprint Polling (D) May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 34% 18%
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 36% 21%
Mark Kelly vs. Blake Masters
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Blake
Masters (R)
Undecided
Change Research (D)[G] June 24–27, 2022 705 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 39% 13%
Blueprint Polling (D) May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 32% 19%
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 35% 21%
Mark Kelly vs. Michael McGuire
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Michael
McGuire (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights September 7–12, 2021 882 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 37% 19%
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 35% 21%
Hypothetical polling
Mark Kelly vs. Andy Biggs
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Andy
Biggs (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 36% 18%
Mark Kelly vs. Doug Ducey
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Doug
Ducey (R)
Undecided
Data for Progress (D) January 21–24, 2022 1,469 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% 4%
Mark Kelly vs. Kelli Ward
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Kelli
Ward (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 36% 18%
Mark Kelly vs. Kari Lake
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Kari
Lake (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 35% 19%
Mark Kelly vs. Jack McCain
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Jack
McCain (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 43% 29% 28%
Mark Kelly vs. Kimberly Yee
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Kimberly
Yee (R)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 3–5, 2021 935 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 35% 19%
Mark Kelly vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Mark
Kelly (D)
Generic
Republican
Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 9–16, 2022 938 (RV) ± 3.3% 40% 39% - 21%
HighGround Public Affairs (R) March 26–27, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 41% 2% 12%
OH Predictive Insights March 7–15, 2022 753 (RV) ± 3.6% 37% 39% - 24%
Change Research (D)[G] March 2022 – (LV) - 43% 46% - 11%
OH Predictive Insights January 11–13, 2022 855 (RV) ± 3.4% 42% 38% - 19%
OH Predictive Insights November 1–8, 2021 713 (RV) ± 3.7% 40% 39% - 21%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Arizona
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Kelly (incumbent)
Republican TBD
Libertarian Marc Victor K.A.
Total votes K.A.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Paveza with <1%
  5. ^ Paveza with <1%
  6. ^ Response without candidates' job titles, besides 'Major General' for McGuire
  7. ^ Response with candidates' job titles
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Saving Arizona, which supports Blake Masters
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Kari Lake's campaign for governor
  3. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Jim Lamon's campaign
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Advancing Arizona Forward, which supports Mark Brnovich
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by Andy Biggs's campaign committee
  7. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Future Majority and America’s Future Majority Fund

References

  1. ^ "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022". CNN.
  2. ^ "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1473777". Federal Election Commission. November 25, 2020. Archived from the original on November 25, 2020.
  3. ^ "Kelly raises $4.4 million for Senate re-election bid". Associated Press. April 8, 2021. Archived from the original on May 15, 2021. Retrieved May 15, 2021. He's [Mark Kelly's] now seeking a full six-year term.
  4. ^ a b c d "We Are Republicans. There's Only One Way to Save Our Party From Pro-Trump Extremists". The New York Times. October 11, 2021.
  5. ^ a b "314 Action Fund Endorses Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for Re-Election". 314 Action. June 29, 2021.
  6. ^ a b c d Bowman, Bridget (May 13, 2021). "Campaign finance-focused PAC makes first 2022 Senate endorsements". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 17, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021. The group, known as End Citizens United and Let America Vote, is endorsing Democratic Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, ...
  7. ^ a b "2022 Feminist Majority PAC Endorsements". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
  8. ^ a b "Jewish Dems Start 2022 Election Cycle With First Slate of Endorsements". www.jewishdems.org. November 30, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
  9. ^ a b "Endorsements". March On. December 6, 2021.
  10. ^ "Endorsements". www.prochoiceamerica.org. NARAL Pro-Choice America. Retrieved June 24, 2022.
  11. ^ a b "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
  12. ^ a b "2022 House & Senate Endorsements".
  13. ^ a b "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021.
  14. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates". votevets.org. VoteVets.org.
  15. ^ a b c "2022 Primary Election". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
  16. ^ "Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich launches US Senate campaign". The Arizona Republic.
  17. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne. "Jim Lamon is the 1st Republican to enter Arizona's 2022 Senate race". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 3, 2021.
  18. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (July 9, 2021). "Thiel ally Blake Masters files for 2022 GOP Senate run in Arizona". Fox Business. Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
  19. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 8, 2021). "Michael McGuire enters Arizona's GOP US Senate primary race; hopes to challenge Sen. Mark Kelly". Arizona Republic. Retrieved June 8, 2021.
  20. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (October 13, 2021). "Arizona utilities regulator Justin Olson enters GOP Senate race, slams Democrats' spending proposal as 'socialist state'". Arizona Republic. Retrieved October 13, 2021.
  21. ^ "'Let's go, Brandon' becomes a campaign slogan in Arizona Republican's new ad". Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  22. ^ "Statement of Candidacy Filing FEC-1498745". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 5, 2021.
  23. ^ Brufke, Juliegrace (March 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill. Retrieved March 1, 2021.
  24. ^ "News".
  25. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne (March 3, 2022). "'I have the job I want': Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey will not run for the U.S. Senate in 2022". Arizona Mirror. Retrieved March 3, 2022.
  26. ^ Gosar, Paul [@DrPaulGosar] (June 1, 2021). "1/2 Once again I am asking for your support....and I do thank you. https://t.co/czWXG8ZJ6X" (Tweet). Archived from the original on January 24, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
  27. ^ Valencia, Peter. "Kari Lake announces run for Arizona governor". AZFamily (KPHO-TV/KTVK). Retrieved June 1, 2021.
  28. ^ Sanchez, Yvonne Wingett (June 10, 2020). "Jack McCain, John McCain's son, has no 'immediate plans to run for office'". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
  29. ^ Daniel McCarthy for Arizona [@DemandDanielAZ] (December 8, 2020). "@gatewaypundit Jim, thank you! I am not a state Rep. State Reps have signed it, but I am setting up a run for Governor of Arizona. The source you republished got it wrong. I'll be on the War Room with Owen Shroyer around 4:30 ET to give the latest" (Tweet). Archived from the original on April 20, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
  30. ^ Fischer, Howard (January 25, 2021). "Arizona Gov. Ducey: I Won't Run For U.S. Senate In 2022". 91.5 KJZZ Phoenix Radio. Retrieved January 25, 2021.
  31. ^ "Kimberly Yee announces run for Arizona governor". KNXV. May 17, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.
  32. ^ Brufke, Juliegrace (March 1, 2021). "House Freedom Caucus chair weighs Arizona Senate bid". The Hill.
  33. ^ Roberts, Laurie (December 11, 2020). "Doug Ducey vs. Kelli Ward for the Senate in '22? That would be epic. But it won't happen". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved January 7, 2021.
  34. ^ Sivak, David. "Jim Lamon loses Trump ally Richard Grenell's endorsement in Arizona Senate primary". www.washingtonexaminer.com. Washington Examiner. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
  35. ^ "CPAC Endorses Jim Lamon". www.conservative.org. December 8, 2021. Retrieved December 11, 2021.
  36. ^ "Arizona Police Association Endorses Jim Lamon - Jim Lamon for U.S. Senate AZ". September 18, 2021.
  37. ^ Greenwood, Max (June 2, 2022). "Trump Endorses Masters in Arizona Senate GOP Primary". The Hill. Retrieved June 2, 2022.
  38. ^ a b Greenwood, Max (February 3, 2022). "Club for Growth endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate race". The Hill. Retrieved February 6, 2021.
  39. ^ Drucker, David M. (October 11, 2021). "Blake Masters picks up Trump alumnus endorsement in Arizona Senate bid". Washington Examiner. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
  40. ^ Isenstadt, Alex. "Hawley endorses Thiel-backed Arizona Senate candidate". POLITICO. Retrieved April 26, 2022.
  41. ^ Ackley, Kate; Bowman, Bridget; Akin, Stephanie (October 21, 2021). "At the Races: Quarterly clues". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 22, 2021. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
  42. ^ "Congressman Madison Cawthorn Endorses Arizona GOP Senate Candidate Blake Masters". January 31, 2022.
  43. ^ "Marjorie Taylor Greene endorses Blake Masters in Arizona Senate race". May 6, 2022.
  44. ^ Bade, Rachael; Palmeri, Tara; Ross, Garrett; Okun, Eli (July 13, 2021). "Politico Playbook PM: What is (and isn't) in the Dems' 'go-big' bill". Politico.
  45. ^ Isenstadt, Alex (April 26, 2021). "Peter Thiel makes $10M bet on associate in Arizona Senate race". Politico. Retrieved May 24, 2021.
  46. ^ "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Blake Masters for U.S. Senate". December 20, 2021.
  47. ^ "Neo-Nazi publisher Andrew Anglin gives 'forceful endorsement' of Blake Masters' Senate bid". July 1, 2022.
  48. ^ "Justin Olson for Arizona US Senate | Stand for Health Freedom". March 25, 2022.
  49. ^ "2022 Primary Election Interested Candidates". apps.arizona.vote. Retrieved July 6, 2021.
  50. ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  51. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  52. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  53. ^ "Arizona Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  54. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RealClearPolitics. January 10, 2022.
  55. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  56. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  57. ^ Luneau, Delphine (April 28, 2022). "Human Rights Campaign Proudly Endorses Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for Reelection". Human Rights Campaign. Human Rights Campaign.
Official campaign websites