2023 Bremen state election

2023 Bremen state election

14 May 2023 (2023-05-14)
All 87 seats in the Bürgerschaft of Bremen 44 seats needed for a majority
Candidate Frank Imhoff Andreas Bovenschulte Maike Schaefer Party CDU SPD Greens Last election 24 seats, 26.7% 23 seats, 24.9% 16 seats, 17.4% Seats needed 24 25 28   Candidate Kristina Vogt Thore Schäck Piet Leidreiter Party Left FDP BIW Last election 10 seats, 11.3% 5 seats, 5.9% 1 seat, 2.4% Seats needed 34 39 43
Incumbent Government Bovenschulte senate SPD–Green–Left

The 2023 Bremen state election will be held on 14 May 2023 to elect the 21st Bürgerschaft of Bremen. Elections to the city councils of Bremen and Bremerhaven, the two municipal entities comprising the state of Bremen, will be held simultaneously. The incumbent government is a coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Alliance 90/The Greens, and The Left led by Mayor Andreas Bovenschulte.

Election date and electoral system

According to Bremen state constitution, the Bürgerschaft has a term of four years, and elections must take place on a Sunday or public holiday during the last month of the previous term. Bremen is the only German state whose parliament sits for a four-year term; all others have terms of five years. The previous election took place on 26 May 2019, and the date for the 2023 election was set for 14 May.

The Bürgerschaft is elected via open party-list proportional representation in two multi-member constituencies corresponding to the two parts of the state: the city of Bremen and the city of Bremerhaven. A five percent electoral threshold is applied independently in both areas. 72 members are elected in Bremen and 15 in Bremerhaven, for a total of 87 seats in the Bürgerschaft. Seat distribution is calculated using the Sainte-Laguë method. Voters each have five votes which may be distributed between party lists and the candidates within them; voters may cast multiple votes for a single candidate or list (panachage with cumulative voting). In Bremen (but not Bremerhaven), the same ballot is also used to elect the city council, also consisting of 72 members elected from the same pool of parties and candidates.

All German citizens aged 16 years or older who have lived in Bremen for at least three months are eligible to vote. Additionally, EU citizens residing in the city of Bremen and meeting the same requirements may vote, but their votes only count toward the Bremen city council election, not the state Bürgerschaft. Due to this, results for the Bremen city council may vary slightly from the state election results.

Background

Main article: 2019 Bremen state election

In the previous election held on 26 May 2019, the CDU became the largest party in the Bürgerschaft for the first time in post-war history, winning 26.7%. The SPD, which has governed the state continuously since the Second World War, was reduced to second place on 24.9%, a record low for the party and down eight percentage points from the 2015 election. The Greens and Left both improved modestly, taking 17% and 11% respectively, while the AfD and FDP won 6% each with slight losses. Citizens in Rage (BiW) retained its single seat in Bremerhaven.

The previous governing coalition of the SPD and Greens lost its majority in the election. Despite the CDU achieving a plurality, the Bürgerschaft retained an overall left-wing majority of the SPD, Greens, and Left. The three parties subsequently formed a coalition government under new mayor Andreas Bovenschulte, marking the first time The Left had entered government in a western state.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the previous Bürgerschaft of Bremen.

Name			Ideology	Lead candidate	2019 result
					Votes (%)	Seats
	CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Christian democracy	Frank Imhoff	26.7%	24 / 84
	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands	Social democracy	Andreas Bovenschulte	24.9%	23 / 84
	Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	Green politics	Maike Schaefer	15.1%	16 / 84
	Linke	The Left Die Linke	Democratic socialism	Kristina Vogt	11.3%	10 / 84
	AfD	Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland	Right-wing populism		6.1%	5 / 84
	FDP	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei	Classical liberalism	Thore Schäck	5.9%	5 / 84
	BIW	Citizens in Rage Bürger in Wut	Right-wing populism	Piet Leidreiter	3.2%	1 / 84

In March 2023, the state electoral committee disqualified the Alternative for Germany from running in the election due to the attempts of two different groups of party officials, both claiming to be the legitimate party executive, submitting competing lists.

Besides parties represented in the outgoing Bürgerschaft, ten parties are running in the election:

• Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (dieBasis)
• Basic Income for All (GFA)
• Marxist–Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD)
• MeRA25
• Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)
• Die PARTEI
• Human Environment Animal Protection (Tierschutzpartei)
• Pirate Party Germany
• Volt Bremen

Of these, all except the ÖDP and Pirate Party are running lists in Bremen only. The ÖDP is running lists in both Bremen and Bremerhaven, while the Pirate Party are running only in Bremerhaven.

Opinion polling

LOESS curve of the polling for the 2023 Bremen State Election (Note there is a break in the axis between the first poll and the previous election result).

Party polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	SPD	Grüne	Linke	AfD	FDP	BiW	Others	Lead
Infratest dimap	13–17 Apr 2023	1,155	28	31	17	7	–	6	6	5	3
	23 Mar 2023	AfD list for Bremerhaven was disqualified
Wahlkreisprognose	17–19 Mar 2023	900	25.5	28	19	9	1	5	6.5	6	2.5
	17 Mar 2023	Both AfD lists in Bremen (electoral district) were disqualified
Infratest dimap	22–27 Feb 2023	1,179	27	28	19	8	7	4	–	7	1
Wahlkreisprognose	13–17 Feb 2023	832	21.5	27.5	19.5	9	10	4.5	2.5	5.5	6
Wahlkreisprognose	19–23 Dec 2022	967	20	29	20	10	9.5	4.5	2.5	4.5	9
Wahlkreisprognose	28 Nov–1 Dec 2022	1,200	22	28	19.5	9.5	10	4.5	2	4.5	6
Wahlkreisprognose	13–22 Oct 2022	989	21	26	21	6.5	11	5	4	5.5	5
Wahlkreisprognose	18–26 Sep 2022	1,010	23	28	18	9	9.5	5.5	3	4	5
Wahlkreisprognose	19–29 Aug 2022	1,014	24.5	30.5	18.5	8.5	7.5	5	2	3.5	6
Wahlkreisprognose	19–28 Jul 2022	1,009	24.5	30	21	8.5	5	5	2	4	5.5
Wahlkreisprognose	12–22 Jun 2022	1,423	23.5	32	19	9	5.5	5	1.5	4.5	8.5
Wahlkreisprognose	21–27 May 2022	1,104	20	34.5	20	10	5.5	5	2	3	14.5
Infratest dimap	11–16 May 2022	1,145	22	30	21	8	6	6	–	7	8
Wahlkreisprognose	24 Feb – 5 Mar 2022	1,200	18	31	20	10	6	8	3	4	11
2021 federal election	26 Sep 2021	–	17.2	31.5	20.9	7.7	6.9	9.3	–	6.6	10.6
2019 state election	26 May 2019	–	26.7	24.9	17.4	11.3	6.1	5.9	2.4	5.3	1.8

Mayor polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size						None/ Unsure	Lead
			Imhoff CDU	Meyer-Heder CDU	Bovenschulte SPD	Schaefer Grüne	Vogt Linke
Infratest dimap	13–17 Apr 2023	1,155	17	–	52	5	–	26	35
Wahlkreisprognose	17–19 Mar 2023	900	27	–	45	9	14	5	18
Wahlkreisprognose	13–17 Feb 2023	832	21	–	45	10	9	15	24
Wahlkreisprognose	19–23 Dec 2022	967	20	–	47	7	12	14	27
Wahlkreisprognose	28 Nov–1 Dec 2022	1,200	21	–	46	7	9	17	25
Wahlkreisprognose	13–22 Oct 2022	989	25	–	54	7	5	9	29
Wahlkreisprognose	18–26 Sep 2022	1,010	27	–	54	3	5	11	27
Wahlkreisprognose	19–29 Aug 2022	1,014	28	–	58	3	3	8	30
Wahlkreisprognose	19–28 Jul 2022	1,009	27	–	59	3	4	7	32
Wahlkreisprognose	12–22 Jun 2022	1,423	26	–	54	7	6	7	28
Wahlkreisprognose	21–27 May 2022	1,104	18	–	65	3	5	9	47
Wahlkreisprognose	24 Feb – 5 Mar 2022	1,200	–	12	64	6	8	–	52